Conflict Lens

Stay informed on global conflicts Run by a former British infantry soldier, focusing on: • military activity • escalation signals • defence posture shifts • strategic infrastructure Updates prioritise situational awareness and context, not noise. Follow and turn on notifications 🔔

🔴 BREAKING Iranian forces have reportedly targeted a container ship flying the Marshall Islands flag while attempting to transit the Strait of Hormuz. • Incident comes amid escalating attacks on commercial shipping in the region • Multiple vessels have already been struck or turned back in recent weeks Earlier, Tehran signalled that passage through the strait would be restricted, with access reportedly limited to selected countries including Russia, India, China, and Spain, subject to approval.

🔴 MY TUPPENCE This isn’t slowing down. It’s reshaping. You’ve now got three things happening at once: • Direct Iran–Israel exchanges crossing new thresholds • Energy infrastructure quietly becoming a primary target set • Narratives diverging, both sides claiming control while preparing for more The dangerous bit isn’t the strikes themselves. It’s the direction of travel. Iran signalling Hormuz sovereignty isn’t just rhetoric. That’s leverage over ~20% of global oil. If they push that line even partially, markets don’t wait for confirmation, they react instantly. Israel, meanwhile, is widening target selection. Not just proxies anymore, but systems, funding routes, and infrastructure that sustain capability long-term. That’s escalation by design, not accident. The US pause looks tactical, not a climbdown. It keeps pressure without committing to a strike that would force full regional alignment overnight. So what happens next? Scenario 1 Controlled escalation Strikes continue, but calibrated. Enough to degrade, not enough to trigger full-scale war. Markets volatile, but functional. Scenario 2 Energy shock event One major hit on oil or shipping infrastructure. Hormuz disruption becomes real, not theoretical. That’s when this goes global fast. Scenario 3 Multi-front ignition Hezbollah fully commits. Regional alliances activate. At that point, it stops being a contained conflict. Right now, we’re between 1 and 2. Watch energy. Watch shipping. Watch alliances. Everything else is noise.

🔴 UPDATE Iran has outlined conditions to end the war, according to state-linked media: - Immediate halt to what it describes as enemy aggression and targeted killings - Binding guarantees preventing a return to hostilities - Defined framework for war reparations - Ceasefire across all fronts, including allied and proxy forces - International recognition of Iran’s sovereignty over the Strait of Hormuz

🔴 UPDATE The IDF reports a series of overnight strikes targeting Hezbollah-linked sites across Lebanon. • A command centre in Dahieh was hit • Multiple infrastructure sites and operatives targeted • Gas stations tied to the “Al-Amana” network were struck, assessed to be a key funding source According to the IDF, these sites generate significant revenue for Hezbollah and operate under civilian cover.

🔴 WATCH Footage shows large fires and heavy smoke rising over Tehran and Alborz Province following reported Israeli airstrikes. • Fuel depots and industrial storage sites appear to have been hit • Fires seen burning west of Tehran • Targets are assessed to be linked to military support infrastructure Strikes on energy sites have previously triggered prolonged fires and widespread smoke over the capital.

What to watch today • Whether Hormuz transit resumes at scale or remains restricted • Follow-on Russian strike waves and Ukrainian air defence sustainability • Any confirmed movement on ceasefire channels with Iran • Further strikes on regional energy infrastructure • Signs of wider state involvement or proxy escalation More updates as information is confirmed.

6. External actors aligning around conflicts • North Korea reaffirms support to Russia, including reported weapons transfers • Broader alignment patterns suggest conflicts are increasingly interconnected Cross-theatre support continues to shape both Ukraine and Middle East dynamics. 👇

2. Moldova energy crisis triggered by spillover strikes Authorities in Moldova say Russian strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure disrupted a key electricity corridor: • Imports from Romania affected • 60-day energy emergency declared • Repairs delayed by unexploded drone debris This highlights continued regional spillover from strikes on Ukrainian infrastructure. 👇

1. Mass Russian strike wave on Ukraine Russia launched one of its largest aerial assaults to date: • ~400 drones and 23 cruise missiles overnight • Followed by over 500 additional drones in daytime strikes • Lviv city centre reportedly hit, including historic sites Separate reporting indicates a power line supplying Moldova was severed, triggering a state of emergency in its energy sector. 👇

🔴 Morning Brief | March 25, 2026 ⚡️ Major overnight developments across the Iran–Israel war and Ukraine. Thread 👇

🔴 UPDATE The Israeli Air Force reports striking two key naval cruise missile production sites in Tehran. • Facilities were used to develop and manufacture long-range cruise missiles • Systems are assessed as capable of targeting both maritime and land-based assets The strikes are part of a broader effort to degrade Iran’s missile capabilities.

🔴 WATCH Footage shows a Ukrainian pilot firing a handheld weapon from a Yak-2 training aircraft to bring down a Russian drone at altitude.

🔴 WATCH Lviv is under attack from Russian Shahed kamikaze drones. • Strikes reported across the city • A UNESCO-listed building in central Lviv has been damaged Further details still emerging.

🔴 WATCH Ukraine’s STRIX unit reportedly destroyed several high-value Russian systems, including the Avtobaza ELINT complex, an electronic warfare unit, Skilok radar, Scanner-K direction finder, and a Murom-M surveillance system. A mortar position and two vehicles were also struck.

🔴 WATCH A heavy barrage of approximately 30 rockets has been launched from Lebanon toward northern Israel.

🔴 G2 UPDATE IDF reports overnight strikes targeting Hezbollah infrastructure across Beirut and multiple locations in Lebanon. • Several Hezbollah command centres hit in Beirut, including a Radwan Force HQ linked to planned attacks on Israeli troops and civilians • Additional strike targeted a Hezbollah intelligence headquarters • In At Tiri, a Radwan unit HQ embedded within the ‘Nur’ radio facility was struck while operatives were reportedly inside The IDF states Hezbollah continues to operate from civilian infrastructure, increasing risk to Lebanese civilians. Strikes are framed as part of ongoing operations against Hezbollah activity linked to Iran.

8. Wider risk | Alliance lines hardening Regional alignments continue to tighten. • Defence coordination increasing across Middle East actors • Spillover risk expanding beyond primary conflict zone • Multi-front escalation risk rising Watch alliances, not just strikes. 👇

7. Israel–Hezbollah front | Northern pressure steady Activity along the Lebanon front remains elevated. • Ongoing strikes and counter-signalling • Movement restrictions in southern Lebanon • No full-scale expansion, but indicators persist Secondary front remains active. 👇

Morning Brief | 24 March 2026 ⚡️ Major overnight developments across the Iran conflict, regional escalation, and global posture. Thread 👇