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Excited to share my thoughts on markets and solving complex challenges for organizations and families
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Connor Carew
78 posts
Connor Carew
@ConnorCarew
Managing Partner of PermCap Investment Office Complex problem solving for organizations/families. Views expressed are my own, not investment advice.
Manhattan Katılım Şubat 2025
88 Takip Edilen91 Takipçiler
Fiscal easing in EM could continue to support equity performance in the region.
source: JPM
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Need to do an updated thread on opportunity set in international equities.
Interesting EPS data for 26e in Eurozone from JPM.
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I've certainly tweeted about it enough...
PermCap Investment Office@PermCapital
We know we’ve probably talked about gold enough this year but given the latest Wall Street Journal piece on the so-called “debasement trade,” it’s hard not to revisit it. As Ken Griffin, founder of Citadel, recently remarked, it’s “slightly concerning” when gold begins to assume the role the dollar once held as the world’s safe harbor. While we’re pleased to see portfolios benefiting from this move, our skeptical caps remind us that the rally reflects deeper structural imbalances, chief among them runaway deficit spending, persistent debt expansion, accelerating central-bank purchases, and now a new accelerant out of Japan’s decision to run the economy “hot.” In short, this isn’t just a gold story; it’s a monetary one. wsj.com/finance/commod…
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Central bank intervention has created a generation of volatile investors (leverage kills / poor risk management).
Markets were down two and change on Friday and futures may open lower Monday…
Yet everyone wishes they lived in the 80s Wall Street…
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70s rhyme with today: Instead of a supply shock its a demand shock (AI Compute / electrification)
Mike Zaccardi, CFA, CMT 🍖@MikeZaccardi
big gold gain + big oil loss = historical anomaly
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Not just about spending (not denying that is a problem as well) - underappreciated that debt interest is adding ~1tn a year.
Makes the Fed's job very challenging with interest rate policy.
Peter Mallouk@PeterMallouk
Red or Blue, the national debt only goes up. The government shutdown won’t change this. The only thing both parties can agree on is sending the bill to future generations. Next stop: $38 trillion.
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Continual signs that we are running HOT HOT. Spending a lot of time putting together a frame work on how to evaluate this macro regime that really started a few years.
Source: RBC and Bloomberg
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Someone on Twitter shared this screen and I look at it everyday. BDC is flashing something is awry while credit spreads still sit decently tight.
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I think we are in the early innings of seeing more interest in trimming US overweights in institutional portfolios.
Less to do with doubt about exceptionalism of US companies, more to do with weakening dollar and trade deficits.
Meb Faber@MebFaber
Historical valuations for US stocks Foreign stocks Cheapest 25% of countries
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Still learning a ton but in my decade of finance - the top of the top down process should start with understanding global liquidity. Seems like Japan just poured gasoline on a forest fire.
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If you followed me at the beginning of the year - I had been sharing some of our team's thoughts on gold.
For the past two years we begin strategically trimming fixed income in favor of gold.
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Joe Weisenthal@TheStalwart
Gold soaring again today
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I had a near-death experience two nights ago in Midtown Manhattan.
Lightning missed me by a few feet (certainly God intervened), and I have it all on video!
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Well consider me marked!
I am constantly blown away by the ways in which the Lord will make himself known.
In the words of one my friends, "I am humbled and blessed to be here."
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Not so coincidentally, I am on day eight of a kind of "fast" (The 75 Hard Challenge), and every night I have been reading the Bible and praying for Jesus to draw near and mark me.
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