convict

@hp_equities Believe 5Y is -4%–5% now. Anyone know how they tanked that hard?

Bennelong Funds Management (parent of BAEP) now up for sale. How can anyone buy this with below redemptions and recent performance? I’d suggest that $CTD.AX also has not been marked down properly by them given it is now trading at $0.50 off-market. afr.com/street-talk/be…

good to know germany upset today won't materially impact $CKF 1H fried chicken sale numbers

@BuyNowStarveL8r Good call. will DM

@Convictcapital No knowledge on credit provision but I have an old view from a while back to not go long at all.

If anyone with knowledge of credit provisioning and has a view on $JDO's would be happy to speak, please reach out

@RonShamgar holy slop

When you desperate for newsflow 😆😆 $CU6 (not held)

@88888sAccount Non-fundamental!

First private buyer of size i've notice put $ behind a SaaSpocalypse-impacted stock. Bottom rumbling $SDF

Egregious underlying behaviour $FLT

Time saving w/ Claude for excel

@twomindscapital Flabbergasted by this one lol

$TPW — Burry chooses this of all the shitcos in one of the finest, shittest shitco markets. $TPW.ax.

We are short $SHAZ (SharonAI). The CEO allegedly siphoned millions, threatened to burn down his last public company. The $1.25bn anchor contract is with a small Indian data center operator whose newest major customer is sanctioned. Link: bleeckerstreetresearch.com/research/shaz

@Magus_Janus @Geo_papic Is he not just saying China's relative negative impact is far less than people think, which puts to bed the 'Iran invasion was all about China' thesis

In speaking with oil traders (and checking the data) it is clear that China went on a buyer's strike due to the ongoing high crude and LNG prices. Which means that Beijing loaded up its storage with low oil prices of the past 12 months and is now profiting off of the high prices by shipping its onshore supply to the rest of the world. So... uhm yeah. If this was "all about China," I guess it was "all about Making China Great Again." China has plenty of storage to weather a mutli-month disruption in crude exports. Someone should explain this to the US. Either the US is cool with a super painful recession (it clearly is not), or it will have to make a deal with Iran. At which point, China will re-fill its storage with again cheaper crude. Win-Win-Win, as Xi likes to say. "Oh but Marko, it won't have the $6-$9 discount on like 20% of its total imports anymore due to regime calibration in Venezuela and Iran." Yeah. Well done America. Way to solve that critical pillar of Chinese rise. 🤦‍♂️ (That last bit was sarcasm, if you did not catch it).

@Geo_papic did we just enter stage 5?

Anyone want to compare $WTC numbers?

Michael burry long $TPW ‘in size’ not on my bingo card

@mondyinvest What do you think happens to $SDR long term?

Some form of hopium for anyone still long $SDR $SDR.AX (-61% last 6M) which looks to be one of the more #AI-exposed #ASX tech names.

Best opportunity set i've seen/experienced in markets (ex covid) currently

@ASXlongshort Buy $L1G then. Huge earnings leverage if you think gold trade has legs and this does anything >10% perf

There isn't even a benchmark/hurdle for the 20%+GST performance fee. Absolute disgrace.

@gregoryblotnick I record for result prints i.e. % prediction stock opens up? Forces you to think and weight SP drivers. Long term investment though, takes a lot of time to get valuable insights lol

@Convictcapital had never heard of this. thank you 🙏

very important step for one's development as an investor or trader, that I wish I'd begun much sooner: process vs outcome: documenting all events/catalysts by hit rate + taking a data-driven approach to everything you do. (1/3) biggest mistake ppl make, is not rubbing their nose in their own mistakes, or asking: "was I right for the wrong reason?" I bring this up bc in the thread below, there's all sorts of binary setups listed...like "investor day" trades, or "lockup expiry" trades...all event-driven. many of these are coin-flips, or 50-50 bets -- those are really your worst odds in markets. it's going up or it's going down. but if you get a bunch of coin flips "right," and assume, wow, I have a natural knack for these, you're making an error in judgment. (2/3) La Rochefoucauld wrote that "self-love is more cunning than the most cunning man in the world" -- that's what you're trying to combat here. your mind will convince you that you're smart, when in reality, "good outcome" + "bad process" = WRONG. so for something like a lockup expiry trade, if you've gotten say 10 out of 15 right, you have to ask: luck or skill? am I good at broadly analyzing these setups or are they stock-specific reads? biggest Q always has to be = "what was my actual P&L?" meaning realized P&L... you have to evaluate the entire life-cycle of the trade...execution from start to finish. "I got the initial stock move right" doesn't equal "right," if on day 3 the trade realized red P&L. (3/3) this kind of brutal self-efficacy separates good from great... most ppl don't want to spend a Sunday afternoon staring at all their losses. but without this ongoing self-evaluation, sorting everything by process vs. outcome, batting/slugging avg, you're not really making progress. the path to determining what you do well, your "circle of competence," is mostly defined by years...if not decades... of steadily X'ing out all the things you DON'T do well.