Point of Conviction

I've subscribed to a bunch of Substacks/Patreons over time. Followed all the "chart guys". Paid for the "daily levels", the "systems", the "frameworks". And yeah… some of the charts were genuinely useful. But the more I watched, the more the stories started falling apart. It's always the same script. "I bought NVDA at $3", "PLTR at $4", "Hundreds of thousands of shares", "Multi-millionaire." Then zero receipts, ever. Just more lore. More screenshots. More "trust me bro". And the funniest part is the marketing: "proprietary system", "custom indicator", "institutional footprint", "whale accumulation zone"... Then you look closer and it's basic stuff anyone can use for free. EMAs, Volume profile, Fib levels, prior highs/lows, maybe RSI or MACD. The same tools sitting in TradingView's menu. Think about it. If someone really had this insane routine, a monster portfolio, real estate, businesses, the whole empire… why would they grind "hours of charting" every day to sell $39/month subscriptions? That time wouldn’t even register on their radar. It only makes sense if the product is the business. And the ones who try the hardest to prove they're "not fake"... are usually the fakest. The constant flexing is the tell. So I'm done paying for smoke and mirrors. I'm just going to post my charts here for free. Because the tools I use are free. The logic is simple. A support level is a support level and I'm not going to rename it into some fantasy "gamma vortex liquidity pocket" to sound smart. If you want the indicators I use, they're public. You can find them on TradingView (search my name) or via the links on my profile. No paywall. No made-up terms. Just clean levels, a clear plan, and follow-ups when price hits them.

Are you ready for earnings season? Can’t wait to see the hyperscalers raise capex again

@ConvictionPoint Important part of the thesis is dilution for shareholders and no organic growth. Stock literally has only pumped bc of government drone investments

A few people misunderstood what I meant when I said $PLTR is the keystone of the $ONDS thesis. No, I don’t think Palantir is buying Ondas. What I mean is that Ondas has spent a lot acquiring companies across drones, counter-UAS, ground robotics, long-endurance aircraft, stratospheric ISR, autonomous effects, sensors and mission software. Owning all those companies does not automatically create a platform. Without a common operating and software layer, Ondas risks becoming a collection of separate businesses with different data, production systems, supply chains and products that do not properly communicate. This is where I think Palantir becomes so important. The original partnership was announced in March 2025. Ondas said Foundry would unify its data and support customer engagement, production, supply chain and field support. Eric Brock described Foundry as a “central operating system” for Ondas’ data. That was before most of the acquisitions. Then in March 2026, Palantir, Ondas and World View announced a much bigger partnership at AIPCon 9. They are building three programs together: Warp Speed for production, engineering and supply chain. AI Flight Director for mission planning and flight operations. SkyWeaver for edge intelligence, sensor fusion and unified command and control. The press release said the goal is for Ondas and World View’s fleets to communicate across different domains and with operators on the ground, creating one unified intelligence infrastructure. It also said the work would begin integrating across the wider Ondas portfolio as early as Q4 2026. Since then, management has become even more direct about this. @CeoOndas said Palantir is helping Ondas integrate its capabilities across air, ground and the stratosphere into “unified, AI-driven systems.” He described SkyWeaver as a jointly built operating system combining Ondas’ hardware, autonomy and AI with Palantir’s data intelligence. The DZYNE announcement took it another step further. Ondas now says SkyWeaver is being developed to connect sensors, autonomous platforms, operators and decision-makers across one operating environment, and that it will turn data from the Ondas and DZYNE portfolios into sensor fusion, mission planning, decision support and autonomous tasking. That is why I call Palantir the keystone. Internally, Palantir can help Ondas connect the companies it acquired across production, engineering, inventory, supply chain and customer data. Externally, it can help connect the actual products into one mission system. World View detects something from the stratosphere. DZYNE or Optimus investigates it. Sentrycs detects or takes control of a hostile drone. Iron Drone or IonStrike intercepts it. Palantir provides the data, decision and command layer connecting the whole process. Brock also said something important in a recent interview: Palantir introduced World View to Ondas. His explanation was basically that Palantir does not want to separately integrate dozens of small companies for every customer. It is more efficient if one scaled operator brings the different ISR and autonomous layers together. He also said this is not just Ondas using Palantir software. There are technology, strategic and go-to-market benefits, and Palantir is actively helping Ondas enter markets and build the layered ISR platform. Palantir itself is not the moat. Other companies can use Palantir too. The possible moat comes from what Ondas builds on top of it: the combined mission data, integrations, operating workflows, customer deployments and the ability to add each new acquisition into the same system. Without that integration, Ondas could just be a roll-up. With it, I believe Ondas can become the system-of-systems autonomous defense platform management has been talking about. It is still something they have to prove, but this is why I think the Palantir partnership could end up being one of the most important parts of the entire $ONDS thesis.

@gainzalgo Why?

@ConvictionPoint Both $PLTR and $ONDS aren't a good buy currently, agree?

@DJstra No, they partnered with Ondas

@ConvictionPoint so, will $PLTR bought $ONDS?

I think $PLTR is the keystone of the entire $ONDS thesis. It is what can turn all these separate acquisitions into one real system-of-systems platform, and that is where the a wide moat could actually come from. Without Palantir, Ondas risks being a collection of companies. With it, it can become one integrated autonomous defense platform.

@bidask123 How so?

@ConvictionPoint complete and utter bullshit.

They announced the Palantir, Ondas and World View partnership back in March at AIPCon 9 to connect their systems into a multi-domain ISR platform. But I think the Ondas-Palantir partnership could become much more meaningful as Ondas integrates all its acquisitions into one platform, because Palantir can provide the shared data, operating and command layer that connects the separate companies and products.

@ConvictionPoint I’m having trouble keeping up with PLTR - was this discussed at AIPCON?

Pretty funny how fast sentiment changes after a stock finally moves in the right direction. People were calling $META a shitco two days ago because of capex, AI spend, Reality Labs, whatever else. Now suddenly everyone is acting like it is the best AI company in the market.

It’s CONFIRMED: AthenaOS is in development! During the fireside chat two days ago, David Steinberg flirted with the idea of Athena becoming a clients operating system. 1/ Team $ZETA has confirmed, yes, that’s real and actually in development. We found: > job listings. > descriptions of AthenaOS. > Indicators of what it’ll become. The job listings suggest it’ll be a “multi-app” agentic ecosystem. This makes a lot of sense, as $ZETA just opened its TAM into BI services. I imagine an ecosystem where a user could access… > marketing solutions. > business intelligence tools. > Palantir suite of tools and services. > Select from ecosystem of certified apps. > Use Athena to Build, design and inform your own enterprise apps. Yes - open, bilateral functionality with the $PLTR ecosystem. If so, $ZETA becomes an integrated layer of orchestration that is custom curated for their customer. In fact, they become "the System of Record" – of which, I believe $GAP will be their first GTM client of AthenaOS. <-- Remember that. I also believe $PLTR & $ZETA are gunning for a $NOW-esk ecosystem. Combatting the "AI control tower" form-factor, thus offering a competitive alternative. Let's talk more about what this means... 1/3

Getting closer, still waiting. $TE

So we get a rotation out of tech / AI into cheaper non-AI quality names, but at the same time I look at $MSFT $META $AMZN $NVDA and wonder how much more people really want to punish them. $MSFT is already around 23x earnings, $META around 22x, $AMZN has been a laggard for what feels like forever and even $NVDA has been chopping for ages. Funds have been dumping chip / AI hardware names, but then who is buying? Because Schwab retail data still shows people buying tech dips and Morgan Stanley is already talking about capital maybe rotating from chipmakers back into hyperscalers. So maybe some funds are taking profits in the crowded AI trade, but that does not automatically mean these companies are broken or that nobody wants them anymore.

Ondas’ acquisition of DZYNE brings long-endurance ISR, counter-UAS and autonomous effects platforms built for demanding missions. ULTRA, LEAP, IonStrike, Dronebuster, Blitz and Grasshopper expand Ondas’ opportunity across U.S. defense programs focused on persistent intelligence and aerial security. $ONDS

$ONDS The new $525M 2026 revenue target includes DZYNE and Omnisys, but does not include Cyberhawk, which is expected to close in Q3.

I don’t really see conviction as just being bullish or holding no matter what. That can also just be cope. For me it’s more about spending enough time with a company or a theme that when the stock starts moving against you, you don’t immediately need to run to X and let your favorite furu decide how you should feel about it. You should already know why you own it, what you expect to happen, what would make you more confident and what would actually make you think you were wrong. Otherwise every red day, every bearish post, every stupid headline will shake you out or make you emotional. And at that point the problem is probably not the stock.

@joshkaineallen Hell yeah!

@ConvictionPoint PLTR to the moon though. I’m looking forward to the day it reaches 1T MC!

I really want some $ONDS bears / haters to enlighten me. What exactly is the thesis? Not “dilution bad” and not “stock went down”, but the actual reason why you think this company is trash. And also what is your position / avg price? Because I have a feeling a lot of the loudest people are not bearish because they did deep research, they are just emotional because they bought too high, sold too low, or never even had a position at all.

Anthropic crying about Chinese companies distilling Claude while basically telling their own customers “thanks for proving the use case, we’ll take it from here” is hilarious.

@joshkaineallen I guess it's hard to admit that they currently have no moat or very narrow moat until they can prove their "systems-of-systems" platform

@ConvictionPoint And all of them think I know zero about the company because I have asked them numerous times to answer my question which is, “Does Ondas currently have a moat? And if so, how strong is? They all take my question negatively and assume I have no clue just but no one will answer me

@joshkaineallen Fair point.

@ConvictionPoint I think most get tired of the bulls on here who constantly post about buying every single dip and currently very underwater. I’m bullish but these “gurus” who claim to have all the research are clueless about when to be smart about buying. It’s annoying but doesn’t affect me so

Intel $INTC reportedly fixed 18A wafer-to-wafer yield variability, with Oregon + Arizona output reaching ~30K wafers/month, per BlueFin.