clon

@MrInd1ana Who is it

Feel like these guys are an absolute must bet this week at the Zurich

@BuriedTreys These are awesome. Thx

Apologies in advance The length of the UCONN/Duke breakdown gives War & Peace and Great Expectations a run for their money The "I'm not reading all that" knuckle-draggers will have a field day with this one

@BuriedTreys Thx for sharing

UCONN / Duke (D.C.) Duke survived STJ’s best shooting game of the year and had to mount a double digit 2H comeback that saw Caleb Foster re-assert himself the final 20 minutes to provide Duke’s offense with another gear they were previously missing without him. Conversely, UCONN jumped on Sparty early with some hot shotmaking and led 25-6 nearly midway through the 1H before having to hang on for dear life down the stretch to eek out a win. Huskies shot 43% from 3 to Sparty’s 25% (on 21 to 16 attempts, respectively, so it wasn’t even a big math ball disparity) Think about that from the standpoint of: Duke won despite trailing early while their opponents shot over expectation whereas UCONN found themselves on the right side of fortunate 3P splits, jumped out to an emphatic lead, and still barely won. Typically, that type of 2-way situation would have me leaning towards Duke, but they also needed much more of an all-in effort to mount that comeback, are now on short rest, and playing against an offense that is pretty brutal to scheme for without full prep (and its first time these coaches have faced one another) Absolutely fascinating matchup between two of the sport’s best halfcourt tacticians (don’t expect much pace) with two similarish looking offenses as both groups do most of their damage away from the ball with elite scoring bigs that they can toss it into at any point. Duke found more punch in their PnR offense as Cayden Boozer’s confidence grew game-to-game down the stretch, but back at nearly full strength (Foster still technically questionable), I tend to think they revert back to the more traditional-looking Scheyer offense that we’ve come to know For as similar as their offenses are in many respects, their defenses sure go about it in very different ways. Duke completely eliminates transition, is elite keeping teams away from the rim, and will live and die with their opponents taking a high quantity of contested 3P shots. UCONN is elite at limiting catch & shoot opportunities, can be beat in transition, and is much more willing to funnel teams into the key and take their chances off the bounce in the midrange. Duke is one of the lowest midrange shot frequency offenses, so when you face defenses like UCONN, it typically means a whole lot more of the ‘3’ part of Rim & 3 Rate. So which defense actually sets up better to stop this style of offense? Think this is one of the most integral schematic aspects as there is a ton of push/pull on both sides and this could be one of the under-the-radar factors that decide this game. I tend to lean towards Duke being better positioned to stop off-ball heavy offense as not only are they the more switchable unit, but they also switch as many times as necessary in order to keep their bigs in the key. The Duke defense has been awesome pretty much all year, but when they have had problems, we have seen it come in the form of miscommunications switching away from the ball that typically ends up in an open 3 or a dunk for the opponent. They’ve been very connected down the stretch, and Foster/Ngongba back likely only help that, BUT there is a possibility we some slippage in this department on short prep, especially with the way we know UCONN hunts Catch & Shoot 3’s The thing about Duke’s defense is they’re optimally set up to suffocate teams who need to get to the rim, whether that is due to a low 3PRate shot diet or inefficient perimeter shooting. UCONN really isn’t either of those, and I tend to think they follow St. John’s path in terms of being forced into a higher-than-usual 3PRate b/c of Duke’s defense. Huskies are another very low midrange frequency shot offense, and Duke is not only Top 10 in Defensive Near Proximity Frequency but they're also 12th in Defensive Near Proximity Efficiency. It’s a CHORE just getting to the rim, and then when you get there, good luck. Tend to think that means Huskies jack a ton of 3’s If UCONN is going to take a ton of 3’s, and Duke’s defense is designed around keeping their bigs anchored to the key, that also means there won’t be as much closeout length on the perimeter when the Huskies launch from deep. There are a few parallels to Seton Hall's defense in the way they force the 3PAs out of their opponents while not having much closeout length. Huskies struggled immensely at The Rock but turned around and shot 43% in the rematch at Gampel And this is how I turned this defensive matchup into my very own Ouroboros. Duke is set up well, but UCONN is dangerous to play the 3P game with, but the Huskies won’t likely get Nuclear Tarris Reed so they MUST hit their 3’s, and Duke is more vulnerable from the 3P line (rate-wise) than I would prefer from a dominant 1-seed. Tough to make heads or tails of, but I think the fact that Duke can play Tarris straight-up with 3 different guys means everyone else can focus on shooters. And round and round we go Coming into the season, I really liked this UCONN team, but there was one major concern I had when it pertained to winning 6-straight against the best of the best. Would Tarris Reed’s career-long foul issues end up being their ultimate undoing? To Reibe’s credit, he has been better than I expected heading into the year, and he actually accumulated his 2nd highest point total of the season in a matchup early this year when the Huskies faced a similarly elite 2-way rim unit with a ton of frontcourt size in Zona (without Reed). And this is one of those matchups where there is ZERO margin for error with Reed’s fouls. Keep in mind, Tarris just played a ton against Sparty in a game where UCONN shot it very well from 3, had a huge lead early, and still barely won. Think you’re calling curtains on UCONN’s season if he fouls early short of Huskies running mega pure from 3 both ways. His foul issues are further accentuated by the fact that Cam is 53rdnationally in Fouls Drawn per 40 while Ngongba is 166th. Both those dudes can absolutely CHURN through big man fouls with the best of them Semi-alluding to Reed’s foul issues, but looking at it from a more macro perspective, the FT line will be a massive component in this game. Duke is great-not-elite at getting to the FT line but absolutely elite in preventing opponents from getting there. UCONN’s shot diet inherently leaves them susceptible to being a low FTRate offense AND they have a bad habit of putting opponents there. The people who have a cow over the supposed “Duke whistle” are going to be yanking their hair out in this matchup as it’s not only likely that Duke out-volumes them at the FT line more, but that they do it by a fair bit of margin. And when you look at who draws the fouls on Duke, there is a good chance that its Tarris picking up the fouls There is one more aspect of this game that I don't think is being discussed enough. Silas Demary is clearly not 100%. Even if I didn't quite agree with it, people were calling him Tristan Newton when he was deathsmashing early in conference play. Now, they're more reliant on Malachi Smith whose assist-only analytical profile gives you almost nothing in this matchup. So we're talking that their starting point guard is gutting it through injury while their Center has a brutal matchup. And none of this has even touched on whatever the heck is happening between Solo Ball's ears this year. I can't point to any data that suggests he bounces back here, but it would be quite poetic to see him break out of a multi-month slump and be the driver of that offense in an upset I feel good about the fact that near-full health Duke is clearly the better team. But you are laying 5 so that's obviously baked in. Plenty also points their way directionally in the matchup and they have an overwhelming advantage on the interior. They just don't have the level of (on paper) perimeter shotmaking that UCONN does throughout their lineup, and we just saw a much worse 3P shooting St. John's team get exceptionally hot last game. A bet on UCONN probably requires Tarris to stay out of foul trouble and for the Huskies to be on the right side of the 3P battle. That is a totally viable outright win condition as well. It is also very much within the range of outcomes that neither occur, and Duke controls this game relatively handily. Think you have more outs with the Duke side as they could win it on the glass, UCONN could just not shoot well from 3, they have potential to drive additional shot volume with the questionable ball security the Huskies have had against pressure defenses. You could get a 10+ FTA delta. So I tend to lean their way, although I certainly wouldn't mind waiting to see a couple minutes of this game and be ready to play the live 3P swings of UCONN either way First place I look for props against Duke is always 3P shooters, but UCONN is super wack-a-mole-y when it comes to guessing which one will do it. Quite literally, in the last 5 games, all of Solo, Mullins, Ross, and Karaban have a 3PRate between....58% and 59% per CBB Analytics. The better you feel about UCONN's prospects in this game, the better you should feel about taking your shots on those guys from the arc It would be an ass clencher of a bet, but I think you could argue about there being value on Tarris Reed's rebounds under given foul risk, his rebounding rate falloffs vs. Tier A (mostly due to DUSTING midmajors like Furman), and Duke having 3 awesome defensive bigs to throw at him Isaiah Evans just had his incendiary shooting performance vs St. John's team and is probably Duke's best option for off-the-bounce scoring, but there is also a good chance his 3PAs are limited in this matchup. You'll get less pace than last game, and there is also a chance having everyone back takes some of the focus off him scout-wise. You're definitely paying a premium this close to tip, so I'll pass but can at least see the argument in favor of him It is certainly far from a guarantee, but I think there is a chance that UCONN is more susceptible on the glass than their analytical profile would indicate. We saw Big East teams who rebounded well in the noncon put up super pedestrian marks against similar competition. The Jonnies & UCONN just bullied the shit out of a bad conference. They let Michigan St grab 35% of their misses 2 nights ago and lost the rebounding battle 39-30. Feels like Ngongba's rebounds is a tad light considering he recently returned from a short injury and ran into fouls against TCU. You probably only get 22-24 minutes, but that prop is also one that has 1H cash potential if my aforementioned theory holds up

He literally explained why you must keep going.

@Art0fLife_ Man I needed that today

@FezzikSports I’m in

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@FezzikSports I can’t msg you because not verified but I’d take you up on this. How about loser gives money to charity of winners choice for 5k

I have a $10,000 verbal commitment for someone willing to bet he can hit 57% ATS in Circa Millions this year! Let's go! Very excited. Details may follow (he may want to remain anonymous)

This was a really REALLY good read. Take 15 minutes of your time, just 15 (ymmv) for me, and read this. Well written. And so true.

@TheOmarShowLive Is there anyway to relisten? I missed the picks

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