Cradl

Cradl is now live in the App Store under CradlLax Free NCAA Division 1 Lacrosse app with: - Live scores and past results - AI-powered game breakdowns powered by historical stats, power ratings, and real time odds - Betting lines updated every 30 min - Box scores with full player stats Heads up: live scores may have a couple min of delay vs other sources - working on improving that Coming soon: - dedicated team pages - more model/prediction data exposed

@3bchboys I don't know if its an official rule, but according to this article from usa lacrosse, it looks like it to me. usalacrosse.com/magazine/colle…

@CradlLax With only 18 teams in the tournament and ACC gets 5, is there really a rule or why is there a rule you can't face another ACC team?

Initial reaction: tough first-round draw for Richmond. By RPI (.6193) and committee score (.6311), Duke is a clean #10. So I had Duke on Cornell at the 7-seed, Georgetown at Richmond. Duke (ACC) can't face UNC, UVA, Cuse, or ND. The only non-ACC top-8 host at the 10 line was Cornell — and Duke → Cornell is 465 mi (~600 mi driving), over the 400-mile travel preference. Dropping Duke to #13 puts them at Richmond (134 mi). JHU drops to 10 vs Cornell — 216 mi great-circle / ~315 mi driving. Both rules satisfied. Net 170 miles saved bracket-wide. Here's how the first round shakes out if all teams were seeded: - 1 Princeton vs play-in winner (Marist/Stony Brook) - 8 Penn State vs 9 Army - 5 Virginia vs 12 Georgetown - 4 Richmond vs 13 Duke - 3 North Carolina vs 14 UAlbany - 6 Syracuse vs 11 Yale - 7 Cornell vs 10 Johns Hopkins - 2 Notre Dame vs play-in winner (Robert Morris/Jacksonville) The committee put significantly more weight on AQ tournament championships and travel distance than my model did. PSU, Army, and Georgetown (all AQ champs) each moved up; JHU and Duke absorbed the cost.

Here's what the bubble looks like

Both brackets try to follow the following rules: - Avoid conference conflicts in first round - 400 mile travel preference - Avoid prior year rematch in first round

Here's my projected bracket heading into selection sunday lets see how wrong I am! cradllax.com/bracketology/ Here's the bracket based on a committee score of Sched: +/- bonus when schedule is stronger/weaker than the field median Big Wins: +0.005 / +0.003 / +0.0015 / +0.0008 per win vs RPI top-5 / top-10 / top-15 / top-20 Bad Losses: -0.003 per loss to a team ranked 21+ (capped at 6)

My projected bracket after today

This NEC championship game is on meth

Projected Bracket after today cradllax.com/bracketology/

This is what the at large selection looks like currently according to my committee score formula

Penn State with a massive 8-6 win over Maryland to advance to the Big Ten Championship Game and likely get themselves into the NCAA Tournament. Nittany Lions defense dominated the whole way. Maryland falls to 7-6 and will likely miss the tournament for the first time in 24 years

@danarestia Marist +1.5 / Sacred Heart -1.5. Best Sacred Heart spread juice is FanDuel (-122). Best Marist underdog ML is DraftKings or BetMGM (+160) — FanDuel only has +152

@CradlLax thanks. is Marist/SHU available? can't see the CT team lines.

I don't suppose anyone can tell me the draftkings spread/odds for Merrimack/Siena? I didn't get to grab it before the game started.

@SteveMcManus87 @NCAALAX @LacrosseGameday @B__Hilty @mnestler40 @d00gs @thecreasedive @james_hoganv @Scotty_Royster_ @StickTalk_Lax 🫡

May Madness @NCAALAX Bracket thanks to @LacrosseGameday - join Me & @B__Hilty league here: pickem.collegelacrossegameday.com/join/4f73db95-… @mnestler40 @d00gs @thecreasedive @james_hoganv @Scotty_Royster_ @StickTalk_Lax #LAXtwitter Spread the word

I think you need to be rooting for Yale, Harvard, and Penn State then. This moment right now the math isn't mathing for Duke to be left out I tried to replicate what the committee might do based on RPI, SOS, Big Wins, Bad Losses Committee Score = RPI + Adjustments: - Sched: bonus based on stronger/weaker than median - Big Wins: +0.005 / +0.003 / +0.0015 per win vs RPI top 5/10/15 - Bad Losses: -0.003 per loss to a team RPI+21 You could change these numbers as you would see fit but it would be tough to keep them out right now cradllax.com/bracketology/

Duke has the talent to make a run if they get in, but they don’t have the resume to warrant a bid. One Top 20 win all season shouldn’t get you into the NCAA tournament. It sets a bad precedent that you can make the field with one win, a blue blood name, and a strong RPI.

Here's my stab at what the NCAA College Lacrosse Bracket might look like today given the following criteria: Committee Score = RPI + Adjustments: - Sched: bonus based on stronger/weaker than median - Big Wins: +0.005 / +0.003 / +0.0015 per win vs RPI top 5/10/15 - Bad Losses: -0.003 per loss to a team RPI+21 Bracket Rules: - Avoid conference conflicts in first round - 400 mile travel preference - Avoid prior year rematch in first round See the full tool and play around with who gets AQs at: cradllax.com/bracketology/

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Rough week for the machine picks Spreads: 16-20 (44.4%) Strong 5-7 Moderate 6-7 Slight 5-6 Totals: 19-19 (50.0%) Moderate 4-1 Slight 15-18

Most dangerous self-creators in college lacrosse right now: Colin Kurdyla (Rutgers) — 75% unassisted goals Aidan O'Neil (Richmond) — 75% unassisted Max Sloat (Duke) — 70.4% unassisted