TIhamy fcrn ewry 🇨🇭 consultant

@ThierryBorgeat x.com/CrazyTom47/sta…

@ThierryBorgeat My internal plan is as follows ⬇️

10 numbers every investor should know by heart: 6.9% Real annualised return of stocks over 200 years. After inflation. 72 Divide by your return rate = years to double your money. At 8%: 9 years. At 12%: 6 years. 40% Of your total long-term stock return comes from reinvested dividends. Spend them instead and you burn 40% of your compounding engine. 2% Average annual inflation. Over 30 years it cuts your cash’s purchasing power in half. Over 50 years it destroys 73% of it. 10 The number of best trading days per year. Miss them over 20 years and you lose half your returns. Most fell during bear markets. 0.98 Correlation between S&P 500 and earnings growth over 30 years. In the short term, sentiment rules. In the long term, fundamentals always win. 4% Safe withdrawal rate in retirement. Historically lasts 30+ years without running out. −14% Average intra-year drawdown of the S&P 500. Every year. Normal. Expected. Ignore it. +36.4% Average S&P 500 return in the 12 months after a midterm election year bottom. The most reliable seasonal pattern in markets. 100% Percentage of 20-year rolling periods that delivered positive real returns. Every single one. In 150 years of data. Save these. They are worth more than most financial advice you will ever pay for.

@ThierryBorgeat x.com/CrazyTom47/sta…

@ThierryBorgeat My internal plan is as follows ⬇️

Never forget: we have seen the relative low of our generation in energy $XLE versus tech $XLK. The chart is XLE over XLK, 27 years of it. From 2.80 at the 2008 peak to 0.20 at the COVID bottom. A 93% relative collapse across twelve years. The lost decade that taught a generation oil was un-investable. The low came the week WTI went negative, April 2020. You were paid to take a barrel. That's reflexivity completing its work: the extreme so absurd it becomes its own reversal. The marginal producers died, the survivors were forced into discipline, and the sector that emerged is a different animal from the one the decade punished. Since then, a higher low. The double bottom is forming on a generational timeframe. These ratios don't turn in quarters. The last full cycle ran nine years up into 2008, twelve years down into 2020. The seesaw only has two seats. Tech is a long-duration asset that feeds on falling rates. Energy is the short-cycle real asset that feeds on the opposite. The old economy is striking back. Ignore it at your own risk.

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My internal plan is as follows ⬇️

@ThierryBorgeat x.com/i/grok/share/2…

Solid set of earnings across the board so far in aerospace - Airbus with guidance lift into 2029 - LMT and RTX with big beats - GE Aerospace with stellar set of long-term order backlog and earnings - ITA ETF with pullback and now bounce - needs to hold! I’ve laid out the entire multi-year investment case here in a three-part series. thierryvonarvy.substack.com/p/aerospace-th…

@ThierryBorgeat x.com/i/grok/share/2…

Pushing further. $UNP with big earnings. +12% operating earnings driven by higher fuel surcharge, volume growth, core pricing gains and greater other revenue partially offset by business mix I’ve laid out the entire multi-year investment case here in a big deep dive.

@ThierryBorgeat x.com/i/grok/share/2…

Pushing further. Regime changes where energy stocks start outperforming tech over the next decade. $XLE vs $XLK The whole multi-year investment case below.

@ThierryBorgeat x.com/i/grok/share/a…

This is what deferring profit looks like when it's deliberate MercadoLibre $MELI revenue: from $28 million in 2005 to $28.9 billion in 2025, a 39.8% CAGR over two decades. Operating margin: peaked at 15%, then walked down to 11% while the company poured everything into fulfillment and free shipping. The market read falling margins and sold. Sleep would have read the same statement and asked one question: what is this business becoming?

@ThierryBorgeat x.com/CrazyTom47/sta…

@ThierryBorgeat My internal plan is as follows ⬇️

The whole Costco $COST thesis in one loop Lower prices deepen loyalty. Loyalty drives volume. Volume lowers cost per dollar of revenue. Savings get returned as lower prices. Repeat for forty years. A 14% maximum markup, enforced by rule. An 86% renewal rate. Competitors aren't fighting a retailer. They're fighting a rule. And rules don't have bad quarters.

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My internal plan is as follows ⬇️

@ThierryBorgeat x.com/i/grok/share/5…

Wall Street spent a decade saying Amazon $AMZN couldn't make money. Sleep read the same income statement and saw a company storing its value in the customer relationship instead. Every price cut funded the next round of volume, efficiency, and price cuts. Costco with servers. The identical model at internet speed. The bars are revenue. The flat blue line is what the skeptics stared at while missing everything.

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@ThierryBorgeat x.com/i/grok/share/5…

20.8% a year for 13 years. Then he gave the money back and kept three stocks Amazon $AMZN. Costco $COST. Berkshire $BRK.NE. The Nomad terminal portfolio. The question we spent 10,000 words answering: does a fourth pass the test? $MELI thierryvonarvy.substack.com/p/nick-sleep-n…

@ThierryBorgeat x.com/i/grok/share/5…

In 2014, at the height of his powers, this man gave the money back Nick Sleep compounded at 20.8% a year for thirteen years. 921% versus 117% for the index. No leverage, no shorting, no derivatives. Billions under management. Then he wound down the fund, kept three stocks, and walked away. Amazon. Costco. Berkshire. Today's deep dive is the full anatomy of his thinking: the Costco study in its numerical glory, the letters, the psychology, the whiteboard. And the position where we believe the same playbook is running today, two decades earlier in its arc, with our own capital committed.

@ThierryBorgeat x.com/i/grok/share/5…

218 pages, 110,000 words, zero filler The Nomad letters, written in real time with real money on the line, no ability to edit history afterward. When Sleep is wrong, you watch him be wrong. Then you watch him figure out why. Book Club: the curated companion volume. Read the letters in order, not by topic. The compounding of the ideas is the content.

@ThierryBorgeat x.com/i/grok/share/5…

February 2005. Costco $COST at 24x earnings, sub-2% net margins. Value investors admired it and refused to own it Nick Sleep read the same numbers and reached the opposite conclusion: a perpetual growth machine misfiled as a low-margin retailer. The consensus saw a cost problem. Sleep saw a machine. Two decades of vindication followed.