gina v ⎕

everybody just gay and greedy

To my investor friends I believe oil and gas prices will continue rising, with higher fuel and freight costs putting pressure on inflation and economic growth. “Will the situation improve in the coming weeks?” No. Industries across the region are largely shut down, and virtually all foreign workers operating in Gulf countries have already been evacuated. The trend points to escalating bombings, and once Iran's economically critical activities are fully disrupted, I expect them to proceed with mining the Strait of Hormuz, which means weeks with zero maritime traffic. “How long will the war last?” A very long time. The Russians have already expended about 200,000 tons of missiles, bombs, and drones in Ukraine over four years without ending the war. The US-Israel coalition is dropping an average of 1,000 tons per day on Iran, and ramping that up won't win the war, based on the Russian experience in Ukraine, plus lessons from Afghanistan and Vietnam. It feels like the US and Israel are fighting a different, extremely expensive tactical war with limited results, while the Iranians hold the Strait in their hands. I foresee continuous political and economic wear on the U.S. government, which has created a situation where it can't simply quit the war, not just due to the humiliation of defeat, but because Iran now has even stronger motives than ever to complete its nuclear bomb. After five days of war, Iran still retains virtually all its capabilities, some degraded, but all operational. The war will be long, with no short-term path to diplomacy. “But Iran could run out of launchers and missiles” Iran has been producing mobile launchers for 35-40 years and storing them. They've also been producing missiles capable of reaching Israel for over 20 years, stockpiled in underground bases. In videos, I've seen no more than 30-40 launchers destroyed, so hundreds likely remain. What the U.S. can do is keep dropping bombs, while the financial markets become a bigger enemy than Iran itself. That's how I see it.