Crypto Andrew ✍️🧠
5.9K posts
Crypto Andrew ✍️🧠
@Crypt0_Andrew
Full-time crypto degen 💯 Follow me for alpha 👀 New and promising DeFi protocols 💎 Crypto education 📚 TG - https://t.co/6RtqV5pzBd
World of Alpha Katılım Ağustos 2021
3.9K Takip Edilen25.4K Takipçiler
@Crypt0_Andrew TAO and FET are basically the clearest signal in AI right now
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$TAO and $FET strength tells you a lot
either bid solid AI tokens
or keep underperforming
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@SSJCurrency @base interesting analysis, mate, looking forward to trying out the public version.
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$ROBOTMONEY update
Couple of days later, attention has gone down, as expected and the situation looks much better r/r wise
The @base KOLs that have shilled it to 50M have now gone silent
Outside of on-chain analytics, Reverse-KOL noise is the second best indicator. Just buy when they're silent and sell when they're loud
> The realized cap is now sitting at 1.4M - slightly below the current 1.57M mc
> 57% of holders are now in losses and we now see investors sitting at up to 50% unrealized losses
I re-entered slightly at 1.45M as a I expect the mc to fall further to the 1.1-1.3M region
We still have holders sitting at 500%+ unrealized profits
Once some of them clear out we resume the uptrend IMO
I did receive some attacks on that post saying that the market cap will reach the tens of millions and that I don't know what I am talking about
Remember to exercise patience and do not fomo
This and other on-chain analytical insights are currently private but I am working on releasing them soon to the public
Follow along if you're interested
Roy@SSJCurrency
$ROBOTMONEY is all over my timeline now its the new token in town and its doing well market cap wise Logically, all accounts with 0 analytical skills, 0 on-chain understanding and 0 fundamental understanding but somehow have a large following will shill it They actually switch from ODAI to ROBOTMONEY now Now fundamentally @RobotMoneyAgent acts as an on-chain hedge fund for AI agentic tokens Adopts the ERC-4626 vault standard where money enters, is split 3-ways > Goes and fetches 5-6% APY on USDC via lending markets > The other two parts trade agentic tokens Micro caps and larger caps Now regarding R/R in terms of entering at 2.2M mc I'd say the risk is abit high for me > 95% of the total supply is currently in profit > 86% of all holders are in profit > There's a total of 83 wallets that are sitting on 500%+ profit currently The token is yet to endure a proper profit stress test I'll be waiting to re-enter at 1.1-1.3M I was patient enough with JUNO and it paid off
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@ChillTRD there are periods for making money and there are periods for capital preservation and self-improvement, now it is the latter
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In the last 24 hours, over 27K tokens launched.
Some 98% died immediately. Only ~0.01% are actually profitable to trade.
No matter how much you "lock in," you aren't going to succeed in this environment.
There are no new traders. It's the same people onchain. You are competing against serial deployers, bundlers, and copy trade farmers.
These aren't optimal conditions to trade.
Bag hold, bull post, and life maxxing is the way.
Phineas@Phineas_Sol
The Reality of the Trenches (Last 24h Data) Let’s break down how brutally hard it is to be profitable right now using real numbers: 27,061 tokens launched 571 tokens graduated → ~2.11% survival rate 13 tokens above $50k market cap after 24h → ~0.048% 8 tokens above $100k market cap after 24h → ~0.029% STEP 1: Survival Out of 27k tokens, only 571 made it to bonding. That means ~98% die instantly, already here, your odds are: 1 in 47 to even touch something “alive”. STEP 2: Quality among survivors Out of those 571 bonded tokens: Only 13 are still above $50k after 24h → ~2.28% Only 8 are still above $100k after 24h → ~1.40% Even after filtering for “survivors”, ~97–98% still fail to sustain value Step 3: True odds from launch From the full set: $50k+ (after 24h) → 0.048% (1 in ~2,081) $100k+ (after 24h) → 0.029% (1 in ~3,383) Reality check: profitability And this is where it gets worse: You’re competing against bots, insiders, and dev wallets Realistically: - Only a tiny fraction are actually profitable trades - Estimated real edge: ~0.01% (1 in 5,000–10,000) This is not 2024 anymore, the game has changed. Now it's not a matter of locking in and being fast. ~98% are dead on arrival ~2% survive ~0.05% sustain relevance ~0.01% are actually profitable If you’re trading randomly, you’re gambling. To win, you need an edge. Otherwise, the math is simply against you.
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@cryptomanran and last year May was one of the best months for alts lol
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Crypto Andrew ✍️🧠 retweetledi
Why is holding dead right now?
Lately I’ve seen many posts complaining that “holding used to be glorious” and that we need to bring it back.
Meanwhile the average on-chain holding time is ~15 minutes 😅
So I decided to look into why we ended up here.
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@remusofmars indeed there are a lot of bottom signals, though it does not mean that the bounce it coming
it can take a while to properly bottom out
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-KOLscan leaderboard from two months ago now mostly trading perps
-People who used to run coins to 100m+ now grind in order to dump everything at 40k mc
-Cupsey is vacationing
-Most normies expect imminent market-wide recession
-There is a war and the loosing side likes to bearpost the world economy to scare the winning side about winning
-Crypto has no real use cases again (except stablecoins of course)
-Most trenchers targeting -50% moves on majors (30k btc $20 sol) before rebuying
-All while quality of coins that aren’t totally dead is higher than ever
-Got all the early ai coin legends bullposting a new sol ai leader
-Got a bunch of cult/meme coin legends bullposting some stuff on sol that just won’t die
HOW MANY MORE SIGNALS DO YOU NEED
ON CHAIN BOTTOMED
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@Mr_Lumus well, if you're fully stabled, hard to get chopped
actively trading is -EV now
tho i also have a few low cap positions hahaha
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@Crypt0_Andrew sometimes you can do all the survive steps and still get chopped
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@MonstaGunner it did, but you can't replace it now, too lat
we just need to wait for a better market, no other way
ideally some better launchpads that don't allow so much crime
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@Crypt0_Andrew You are talking with somebody that is down 50k from memecoins lol
Pumpfun ruined the sector
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@MonstaGunner of course there are always runners and your RM is sound, but don't forget that majority does not do research, they are not that deep in the trenches and even there the conditions are ruthless right now
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@Crypt0_Andrew Not necessarily
You can gamble with shitcoins on Solana and do easy 2x on every token after good research
Sell half at 2x and ride it risk free
But of course this is high risk stuff which usually ends up in a rug
It's all about timing and good research like anything
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@0xWassie CT sentiment is the most useless indicator out there
basically a beta to PA
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@MonstaGunner TPing is super important, but to TP smth, you need to be up on smth and to increase those chances you have to live until the bull market
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@Crypt0_Andrew You forgot one important lesson
Always take profits before too late
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@poe_real69 you can't blame community/people when holding has been severely punished this cycle
outcome = behaviour
hence we need to check the outcome and for that we just need a better market, better launchpads and a few 100M+ MC runners
but asking ppl to hold during risk off market...
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If the users don't like pvp stop buying and supporting them as a whole. We can not solve human behavior and greed through a launchpad. Crypto is a free and open space where users/ the market will decide which direction a coin should head in. Everyone likes to talk but actions / wallets speak louder then words. This isn't a launchpad issue this is a community issue.
json@json1444
PVP has been a massive point of contention over the past few days, and many plead for a fix from the launchpad layer. however, I believe the causation of PVP is misguided and isn’t the result of the launchpad, but a result of: 1) broader liquidity leaving the market 2) behavioral problems it’s no secret that we’re in a bear market & more liquidity has left the market than has entered over the past 6 months, hence why ceilings are much lower & opportunity feels scarce with lower liquidity & lower ceilings comes the desire to find edge elsewhere. if traders know they’re not going to succeed holding, and they can't beat other traders, there may be edge in redeploying an already successful coin; whether it’s under the guise of a better ticker, image, has tracked wallets, fee distributions, etc. while I think this behavior is incredibly destructive, I believe it is a permanent pendulum, and I believe we're currently at the extreme end of that pendulum, which is why we’re experiencing incessant & unrelenting PVP compared to what we see in a bull market (PVP exists, but faces nowhere near the level of participation as we see now)
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that's actually a good idea because i can't think of anything that can make a life of a beginning trencher easier in terms of education
anyway i would start with basics: learn how everything works, so the execution is there, then start observing plays, charts, etc to get experience + network
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@json1444 funny to read it from someone from pumpfun team, anyway there are several factors: large numbers of launchpads, insane amount of onchain crime, poor market, mass extraction events, etc
made a short thread about it and how to fix it
x.com/Crypt0_Andrew/…
Crypto Andrew ✍️🧠@Crypt0_Andrew
Why is holding dead right now? Lately I’ve seen many posts complaining that “holding used to be glorious” and that we need to bring it back. Meanwhile the average on-chain holding time is ~15 minutes 😅 So I decided to look into why we ended up here.
English
PVP has been a massive point of contention over the past few days, and many plead for a fix from the launchpad layer. however, I believe the causation of PVP is misguided and isn’t the result of the launchpad, but a result of:
1) broader liquidity leaving the market
2) behavioral problems
it’s no secret that we’re in a bear market & more liquidity has left the market than has entered over the past 6 months, hence why ceilings are much lower & opportunity feels scarce
with lower liquidity & lower ceilings comes the desire to find edge elsewhere. if traders know they’re not going to succeed holding, and they can't beat other traders, there may be edge in redeploying an already successful coin; whether it’s under the guise of a better ticker, image, has tracked wallets, fee distributions, etc.
while I think this behavior is incredibly destructive, I believe it is a permanent pendulum, and I believe we're currently at the extreme end of that pendulum, which is why we’re experiencing incessant & unrelenting PVP compared to what we see in a bull market (PVP exists, but faces nowhere near the level of participation as we see now)
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@Route2FI Lambo calculator is still the GOAT marketing
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@lesabrefomo this is the perfect time to improve yourself as a trader or investor: fix mistakes, check new tools, build smth with AI, improve the edge, etc
investment in yourself is the best investment
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@azaztrader01 tbh everything: macro, shitty market, no new good launches, etc etc etc
it is a normal state of things given that the market is clearly risk-off
just need to sit and wait for good set-ups like $SAIMMY or $INSTACLAW
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@Crypt0_Andrew So true, it feels like this advice is right on time, every time I look at the markets. What's your biggest concern right now?
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CT sentiment is a joke.
A week ago everyone was calling for $40-50k.
Today everyone is calling for alt season.
Same accounts.
Same confidence.
Just engagement farming.
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