Not Financial Advice

11K posts

Not Financial Advice banner
Not Financial Advice

Not Financial Advice

@Crypto4202

London Technical Trader since 2018 📍 USA Stocks | FX | Futures | Equities "NOT SELLING ANYTHING" Life is risk vs reward • NFA

London, England Katılım Mayıs 2018
1.8K Takip Edilen433 Takipçiler
Sabitlenmiş Tweet
Not Financial Advice
Not Financial Advice@Crypto4202·
Video made by Grok - Music made by Suno - King of the Strait!
English
0
1
2
46
Ryan Tanaka
Ryan Tanaka@RyanTanaka·
Tesla stock is sooo undervalued
English
28
12
341
11K
Ross Gerber
Ross Gerber@GerberKawasaki·
Basically can't trust anything on this site anymore. Very hard to get real information anymore. Certainly not here. Miss the old Twitter a lot.
English
176
30
388
22.3K
Not Financial Advice
Not Financial Advice@Crypto4202·
Grok! Has an ipo every gone up and never back to ipo price? Thought for 9s Yes, it has happened—though it's quite rare. Many IPOs experience volatility and dip below their offering price (often called the "IPO price" or "offer price") at some point, especially in the first year or during market downturns. But some strong performers have risen after listing and never traded back down to (or below) that initial price.Examples of IPOs That Stayed Above Their Offering PriceHere are notable cases (adjusted for splits where relevant):DMart (Avenue Supermarts, India, 2017): IPO price around ₹299. It has never traded below its IPO price and is often cited as a "great IPO" for this reason in Indian markets. m.economictimes.com Google/Alphabet (GOOG/GOOGL, 2004): Offered at $85. It popped on day one and its all-time low (split-adjusted) stayed well above the IPO level. The stock has never returned to $85. companiesmarketcap.com LinkedIn (2011): IPO at $45. It was highlighted as one of the few major tech IPOs from that era that never traded below its IPO price (at least for years afterward). usatoday.com Visa (V, 2008): Priced at $44 (split-adjusted low around $11). While it dipped in the 2008-09 financial crisis, its lowest point remained above the effective offering level in many analyses, and it has been a massive long-term winner. Other big winners like Amazon (1997, IPO $18) did briefly dip below in the dot-com bust but then never returned after recovering.Why This Is RareMost IPOs underperform initially: Studies show a large percentage trade below their offer price within months or years due to lock-up expirations, hype fading, or market conditions. nasdaq.com High-profile examples like Facebook, Uber, and many 2021 IPOs all fell below their IPO prices at some point. Even strong companies can face temporary drops from broader crashes (e.g., 2008, 2022). Bottom line: Yes, select high-quality IPOs (especially from resilient businesses with strong moats) have gone up and stayed permanently above their IPO price. But it's exceptional—most require long-term holding through volatility, and there's no guarantee. Success stories like Google or DMart prove it's possible with the right company. Always check historical charts for specifics.
English
0
0
0
2
Raoul Pal
Raoul Pal@RaoulGMI·
Total Global Liquidity is rising Global M2 is rising US Total Liquidity is rising US M2 is rising China Total Liquidity is rising ISM is rising Try not to over think it.
English
284
301
2.8K
94K
Elon Musk
Elon Musk@elonmusk·
Only a few hundred Tesla Model S & X cars left in inventory. Order now if you want one.
English
10.4K
3.7K
55.4K
15.1M
Earl of FrunkPuppy
Earl of FrunkPuppy@28delayslater·
FSD 14.3 could arguably be called a disappointment.
English
48
2
217
15.6K
Not Financial Advice
Not Financial Advice@Crypto4202·
FSD UPDATE FROM EUROPE REGULATORS 10TH APRIL OR 420....
English
0
0
0
39
Not Financial Advice
Not Financial Advice@Crypto4202·
Why the valuation looks crazy (the "don't look past this" part)Revenue is still relatively low: ~$15B–$20B range (heavily from Starlink), with profitability not fully there yet in all segments. At $2T, it's trading at absurd multiples (e.g., 90x+ revenue in some estimates). Compare to Meta or other big tech with far higher earnings. Risks: Execution on Starship, competition (eventual), government contracts concentration, high capex for satellites/rockets, and Musk's divided attention (Tesla, xAI, etc.). Public markets are harsher than private ones on these metrics. Many past hyped IPOs have struggled post-listing.Lock-up Period (Key Addition)Standard expectation: 90–180 days after IPO. Most sources point to ~180 days (6 months).If IPO launches in June 2026 (most commonly cited window), lock-up would typically end around December 2026. If delayed to July, lock-up expiration shifts to ~January 2027. Potential twists for SpaceX:Bankers are reportedly considering skipping or shortening the traditional lock-up for some shareholders, allowing earlier sales (unusual for a mega-IPO). Discussions of longer lock-ups for big early investors or graduated releases to avoid a massive sell-off flood. Employees/insiders generally can't sell during lock-up (though RSU tax withholding may happen). Post-lock-up, expect possible price pressure from insider/employee selling waves — a common IPO pattern. This matters a lot for timing your entry/exit. Pre-IPO secondary buyers may face their own lock-ups (6–12 months in some cases).Why bulls say "look past the valuation and buy anyway"The pitch is optionality + monopoly-like positions in massive future markets:Starlink: Dominant satellite internet, scaling to direct-to-cell phones, huge subscriber growth. Launch business: ~90%+ market share in commercial/orbital launches with reusable rockets. Starship: Game-changer for cost-to-orbit, Mars ambitions, defense, and more volume. AI/synergies: Post-xAI merger, orbital data centers, compute advantages, telecom play. If Starship succeeds on timeline and Starlink/direct-to-cell scales, the company could justify (or exceed) that valuation in 5–7 years as a platform across space, comms, and AI. It's pitched as a unique "several large markets in one stock" with no direct single competitor.Elon Musk's track record gets retail investors excited (FOMO + loyalty), and there's talk of big retail allocation in the IPO. Institutions will need to buy the long-term vision over current financials.Bottom line — should you buy?If you're a believer in the multiplanetary/AI-space future: The "look past valuation" argument makes sense for a small, high-conviction position. It's a bet on execution and exponential growth. Watch lock-up end for potential volatility/dips. If you prefer fundamentals/value: Skip or wait for post-IPO dips (especially around lock-up expiration). Valuations this stretched have big downside if timelines slip. Practical note: Pre-IPO shares are for accredited investors via secondary markets (Hiive, etc.). IPO will open it to more people, but expect volatility.
English
0
0
0
2
Not Financial Advice
Not Financial Advice@Crypto4202·
@Tesla_AI Tesla compresses it dramatically through their data flywheel, Dojo/cluster scale, and (increasingly) AI-assisted development. It's why progress feels so rapid now. The humans (and their AI tools) behind it are doing elite-level work.
English
0
0
6
813
Tesla AI
Tesla AI@Tesla_AI·
New release of FSD Supervised now starting to roll out This update brings 20% faster reaction time to further increase safety, among many other improvements Full release notes below Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14.3 includes - Upgraded the Reinforcement Learning (RL) stage of training the FSD neural network, resulting in improvements in a wide variety of driving scenarios. - Upgraded the neural network vision encoder, improving understanding in rare and low-visibility scenarios, strengthening 3D geometry understanding, and expanding traffic sign understanding. - Rewrote the AI compiler and runtime from the ground up with MLIR, resulting in 20% faster reaction time and improving model iteration speed. - Mitigated unnecessary lane biasing and minor tailgating behaviors. - Increased decisiveness of parking spot selection and maneuvering. - Improved parking location pin prediction, now shown on a map with a (P) icon. - Enhanced response to emergency vehicles, school buses, right-of-way violators, and other rare vehicles. - Improved handling of small animals by focusing RL training on harder examples and adding rewards for better proactive safety. - Improved traffic light handling at complex intersections with compound lights, curved roads, and yellow light stopping – driven by training on hard RL examples sourced from the Tesla fleet. - Improved handling for rare and unusual objects extending, hanging, or leaning into the vehicle path by sourcing infrequent events from the fleet. - Improved handling of temporary system degradations by maintaining control and automatically recovering without driver intervention, reducing unnecessary disengagements. Upcoming Improvements - Expand reasoning to all behaviors beyond destination handling. - Add pothole avoidance. - Improve driver monitoring system sensitivity with better eye gaze tracking, eye wear handling, and higher accuracy in variable lighting conditions.
English
921
1.2K
10.6K
31.8M
Not Financial Advice
Not Financial Advice@Crypto4202·
New release of FSD Supervised now starting to roll out This update brings 20% faster reaction time to further increase safety, among many other improvements Full release notes below Full Self-Driving (Supervised) v14.3 includes - Upgraded the Reinforcement Learning (RL) stage of training the FSD neural network, resulting in improvements in a wide variety of driving scenarios. - Upgraded the neural network vision encoder, improving understanding in rare and low-visibility scenarios, strengthening 3D geometry understanding, and expanding traffic sign understanding. - Rewrote the AI compiler and runtime from the ground up with MLIR, resulting in 20% faster reaction time and improving model iteration speed. - Mitigated unnecessary lane biasing and minor tailgating behaviors. - Increased decisiveness of parking spot selection and maneuvering. - Improved parking location pin prediction, now shown on a map with a (P) icon. - Enhanced response to emergency vehicles, school buses, right-of-way violators, and other rare vehicles. - Improved handling of small animals by focusing RL training on harder examples and adding rewards for better proactive safety. - Improved traffic light handling at complex intersections with compound lights, curved roads, and yellow light stopping – driven by training on hard RL examples sourced from the Tesla fleet. - Improved handling for rare and unusual objects extending, hanging, or leaning into the vehicle path by sourcing infrequent events from the fleet. - Improved handling of temporary system degradations by maintaining control and automatically recovering without driver intervention, reducing unnecessary disengagements. Upcoming Improvements - Expand reasoning to all behaviors beyond destination handling. - Add pothole avoidance. - Improve driver monitoring system sensitivity with better eye gaze tracking, eye wear handling, and higher accuracy in variable lighting conditions.
English
0
0
0
5
Trending Bitcoin
Trending Bitcoin@TrendingBitcoin·
MICHAEL SAYLOR: ''NO ONE HAS EVER LOST MONEY BUYING BITCOIN''
Trending Bitcoin tweet media
English
48
32
344
9.7K
Not Financial Advice
Not Financial Advice@Crypto4202·
Cumberland sausages (those long, coiled, peppery British pork sausages flavoured with sage, mace, nutmeg and black pepper) are very versatile, but they shine with classic, hearty British sides.Classic PairingsMashed potatoes + onion gravy — This is the ultimate match (bangers & mash). The rich, peppery sausage flavour loves creamy mash and sweet, savoury gravy. Add peas or other greens on the side. Toad in the Hole — Sausages baked in Yorkshire pudding batter, served with gravy. Full English Breakfast — With bacon, eggs (fried or scrambled), baked beans, grilled tomatoes, mushrooms, black pudding, and toast. Apple sauce or spiced apple — The sweetness cuts through the richness and pepper perfectly (a bit like pork and apple in a pie). Other Great MatchesRoasted or sautéed vegetables — Onions, carrots, cabbage, Brussels sprouts, or root veg. Mustard mash (with wholegrain mustard) + greens. Sweet potato mash for a slightly sweeter twist. Casseroles/stews — With beans, lentils, apples, or cider. Sausage pie or sausage & apple pie. Grilled or pan-fried and served in a bread roll with mustard/onions (like a posh hot dog). Baked beans, coleslaw, or mac & cheese for a more casual meal. Drinks that go well: A good pint of British ale (bitter or golden ale), cider, or a hearty red wine like Malbec if you prefer wine.Quick tip: Cook the whole coil gently in a pan or oven so it stays juicy, then slice portions off to serve. They’re forgiving and work in almost anything savoury! What are you thinking of making with them? I can suggest a specific recipe if you want.
English
0
0
1
3