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Captic
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as if things couldn’t get any worse, there are now tao subnets that have delivered less than half the value of some of these sol utility projects, trading at 5-10x their value.
NATΞ@0xn4te
starting to look like if you’re building serious shit and you choose to do it on solana you’re just doing yourself a massive disservice. the performance of some of these tokens relative to the value they currently offer is just worlds apart.
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Captic retweetledi
Lots of commenting on why the solana trenches died. Beyond simple bear market (which is a decent bit of it), I think the answer is pretty simple: (1) Fees; (2) Professional rapists; (3) no wealth effect. I think each of these also provides PF a great opportunity to gain market share from competitors and significantly increase their own bottom line.
My thesis below is simple: onchain requires a certain amount of money in the hands of gamblers and the velocity of money from gamblers to VIG needs to be slowed down. All of this money will eventually end up in the house (PF), and each of my action items directly benefits PF and allows them to gain market share from their competitors.
I've been onchain trading full-time since mid-2021. I started on ETH and have traded on just about any chain you can name. Significant amount of that has been in bear markets, even.
ETH onchain died because of four issues: (1) Gas fees; (2) 99% of all onchain deploys were instant liquidity rugpulls (professionalized rapists); (3) UX (compared to sol); (4) lack of projects building (signifying attention/opportunity/eventual wealth effect through airdrops).
UX hasn't changed and is still superior to ETH (but not really to Base or BSC), so I won't comment on that. The other 3 are doing most of the work.
(1) Gas fees. Solana gas fees are still low, but the funneling of all volume through TG bots is essentially the same phenomenon. If you do a $20,000 roundtrip, there's your $200 in gas fees. Most are used to tooling/UX/whatever and so don't go do manual swaps. This is billions of dollars siphoned from the trenches annually. Every bit of VIG shortens the lifespan of trench narratives/seasons exponentially. Some terminals are lowering fees, but Pumpfun really needs to simply make Padre the de facto TG/browser trench tool, bring the utility up to parity with other products, and make fees literally 0 - forcing others to compete on pure utility to justify their fees (and, ideally, forcing their hand to do an airdrop, tied in with item 3 below). This step alone returns billions of dollars to the trenches (which eventually all ends up in PF pockets since they are the house, but takes longer, extending trench seasons and making it more attractive to play). PF is the only centralized actor with the distribution and incentive to do this. Distribution because they have a meaningful shot of getting degens to switch over. Incentive because, as mentioned, they can justify 0 fees because the full 1% goes to their business bottom line anyway, just through PF rather than Padre. Those billions of dollars extracted to terminals could actually all simply go to PF instead (since it is no longer extracted to terminals, remains with the gamblers, and eventually makes its way back to the house).
Action item: PF needs to make Padre the go-to TG/Browser tool and set fees to zero.
(2) Professional rapists. These dominated ETH onchain. Not just the automated "deploy coin, let people (bots) trade it, pull liquidity" but also LP snipers became widespread. LP snipers will always exist due to the mechanics of LPs (essentially the same as bonding curve). But when they are the majority of the field, and their early supply cannot be sufficiently absorbed by later sellers who actually believe in the coin, everything goes to zero. ETH onchain also had a natural habitat where LP snipers would get fed upon by the aforementioned LP pullers and so they kept each other in check. This exists somewhat on Solana but not at a high-enough level, and so LP snipers are not kept in check enough. This is largely a a culture issue but is incentivized by PF fee structures. First off, 1% LP fees don't need to exist because liquidity is paid for entirely by holders due to PF using a bonding curve. 1% LP fees is a vestigial feature of ETH LPs where third parties needed to be incentivized to provide liquidity to projects. That simple does not need to exist any more. Fees could be cut 90%, again exponentially increasing the time of trench seasons because more money stays in player hands (although, as mentioned, eventually ending up at the house). Or at the very least, fees should be used to bolster the LP like used to happen. Deployers (they are not devs) do not need to be incentivized to the extent they are now (if at all). Good coins will be deployed by someone and their payment is the ability to purchase supply early.
Action item: PF needs to drastically reduce LP fees, creator rewards, and other rake, or at the very least ensure most of this goes into the LP pool itself.
(3) Wealth effect. ETH onchain blossomed because of the wealth effect from uniswap/sushiswap/various L2 tokens as well the the underlying token going up (RIP). That money kept sloshing around in the onchain system until it went to zero. Solana had the same dynamic - SOL went from $8 to $200+ and the ecosystem had all sorts of stimulus, whether bonk (the original), DEX airdrops, JITO, some NFTs, etc. This put a lot of money in degens' hands and they were happy to use this house money at the casino. Right now, Solana is not going up, and every single current ecosystem actor that could provide a wealth effect has chosen to extract instead. TG bots and PF are the obvious examples - both could do significant airdrops and reinvigorate the trenches, but they will not.
Action item: Airdrop, you fools (PF first, then force the hands of TG bots if they want to maintain market share vs Padre).
PF, through making Padre the best tool with 0 fees, and airdropping to users, has the opportunity to simultaneously inject money into the trenches such that players return, decrease vig throughout the ecosystem so that the players stay and the seasons remain longer (and PF income remains more stable), and force the hand of competitors to level up unless they want to lose market share to PF. If they succeed in driving all TG users to Padre, they can essentially take all that vig that was going to competitors and direct it to their own bottom line instead.
There's a lot of opportunity for solana onchain to avoid becoming eth onchain. Just a matter of whether there's vision and will.
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Captic retweetledi
At first glance, pressing the button seems like a great opportunity. Each press has a 50% chance to double your wealth and a 50% chance to halve it (EV = 1.25x). Mathematically, this implies infinite presses should lead to infinite wealth. It becomes an infinite random walk where every positive outcome occurs with certainty. Awesome. In theory.
However, a game can offer a seemingly generous +25% average return on each press, yet most participants can still lose money because of the nature of multiplicative betting. The mean (average) wealth can explode to extremely large amounts with the median (the wealth of the typical participant) and the majority of players losing money.
In this game, wealth compounds multiplicatively, not additively. The average outcome is wildly profitable. The typical outcome is stagnation or loss. The majority of players go to zero, on a series of highly +EV trades. The problem is in how much you bet each time. Position sizing transforms this risky gamble into a sustainable strategy. Let's say you do 50% instead of 100%. It instantly becomes a great strategy.
In any high-volatility, positive-EV scenario, the path to long-term profitability for the majority is careful position sizing. Survival is a prerequisite for realizing your edge. “Just survive” is not simply feel-good advice but actually useful.
Aporia@0xaporia
If you could press a button that has a 50/50 chance of doubling your net worth or halving it. How many times would you press it? (put your reasoning in comments pls)
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X front ran the markets wrt SaaS-pocalypse by a week or two
Imagine if this entire platform is early to the shitstorm of inflation / oil shocks, etc.
I find it hard to believe that the equities market is slow to react to this... and if it happens, I will truly be shocked
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Captic retweetledi
64 trades to zero. not from bad trades. just fees.
that's a $500 port on pumpswap. trading 10% per round trip. breaking even every single time. half your money gone by trade 31. the rest follows.
@Pumpfun's co-founder says the fees are "exactly the same" as 2024. in 2024, 88% of fees went back to the LP. today, 1.6% does. his own docs say so.
thank you for all the feedback and DMs on the article. since we're degens and it's easier to understand complex things visually, i cooked something for you.
simulator (try your own port size): exactlythesame.netlify.app
and here, the full article again:
g@ganjathang
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Captic retweetledi
1/ Druckenmiller's first mentor, Speros Drelles, would often tell him that "60 million Frenchman can't be wrong."
Here's a thread on what that means and how to know when you should listen to or ignore the "Frenchman" (market)...
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something ive been recently experimenting with is being semi erect in public. I usually get a lot of side eyes previously when I said im hard, its probably justified cus most men cant get hard when they want but its kinda funny to get that reaction from women especially at events that make me pretty hard. the downside of this is now every woman i meet wants to suck my cock cus they think u are ready to be sucked
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neither did your holders consent to being raped
geoff@GeoffreyHuntley
@Lanawatermelons i never launched this coin. i never had control of it. i never consented to this.
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well the dev literally said he wants to make all his holders rich
Captic@CryptoCaptic
if you want to buy a bags coin, you should buy coins whereby the devs have a plan for the coin
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@tetra_gamma $Ore strongest community i have seen in awhile with everyone working together to build on top of it
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