CryptoCon

14K posts

CryptoCon

@CryptoCon_

#Bitcoin Technical Analyst || Conservative long-term analysis || Here to help you make money || Creator of the Halving Cycles Theory

Katılım Ekim 2018

21 Takip Edilen126.8K Takipçiler

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·29 Ağu

Yesterday, I made the decision to sell all of my Bitcoin and Altcoins as I feel data has grown exhausted, which has shifted my perspective from bullish to bearish. I sold my Bitcoin at $112,596.64 I sold my Ethereum at $4,500.82 I have been holding both coins from these prices since November 2022 with no buys or sales in between: Bitcoin: $16,558.55 Ethereum: $1,196.79 I believe the cycle top has already occurred as of August 2025 at 124k. This won't be a popular opinion, just as it wasn't when I did the same thing in April 2021. Will it be right? I have no idea. I am content with my decision and happy with my profits. The full details of my decision are in my latest newsletter: open.substack.com/pub/cryptocon/…

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·1d

Pretty standard bear market stuff on the Simple Bands so far! Break below the mid-line, retest as resistance (orange arrow), and pause halfway to the cycle bottom band which is where we are now. The cycle bottom band price is 46k and is typically hit twice.

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·4d

The Second Low of the Bear Market (solid orange dot) is coming soon. The window for it is August - October this year. The last important Halving Cycles Theory point was the First Low (hollow orange dot), which came perfectly in its January - March window (February 2026 at 60k). The cycle bottom (green dot) is set for later, from November this year to January of next year. Right on track!

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·6d

Some long-term holder data shows that long-term holding is maxed out and at cycle bottom levels, but my long-term holder metric does not. That being said, it is pretty close. Current position lines us up with "one more big move to the cycle bottom": September 2014, August 2018, and July 2022.

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·6 Tem

According to the average amount of time in a Bear Market, Bitcoin is at 70% completion. The drawdown is still very shallow at 53%, even when accounting for diminishing. That's over 20% less than the previous cycle. Time-wise, not too much to go. Price-wise, I think there's some work to do. July in previous bear markets has been a month of stagnation and dead-cat bounces. Downside typically resumes in August.

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·2 Haz

I'll throw my 2 cents in on Michael Saylor's Bitcoin sale... The amount sold compared to what Strategy holds is extremely small; most people know this. The more interesting implication is the psychological shift from "I will never sell" to "I will sell just a little bit." And why? To pay the bills (dividends), which Michael has a lot of. Religion has always been a big driver of crypto prices. The "Never sell your bitcoin, always buy, escape the financial system, supercycle, world adoption." And cracks are forming in it even from the most fervent believers. There have been quite a few prolific people announcing being "done" with Bitcoin recently as well. So then, reverse psychology, "This is a buy signal, right?" That's what most people are led to think. Instead, I think it shows true weakness. Investors are jumping ship. Other things have become much more attractive (AI-related stocks). Crypto has been the #1 money maker for a decade, and that's being challenged. There are cycles even in what makes the most money. What comes of this? Potentially a failed Bitcoin cycle (no new ATHs), or lower cycle bottom prices than most people expect. Some people project that a supercycle will end diminishing returns; I believe it will be a failed cycle instead. Not death... just a rebalancing. Crypto/Bitcoin influencers won't say these things because it hurts the business. You get attention by telling people that a supercycle is coming and that prices will go up. I'd prefer to share my honest thoughts. I'm an investor, and I want to put my money where it will work the best, wherever that is. Nothing's looking interesting at the moment.

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·3 Tem

Some metrics like SMII or others which you've seen across X are already bottomed out. Here, that happened in February this year. Not only that... bullish divergence is starting to form. So, how is this not the cycle bottom then? Take March 2024 for example. It measured as a cycle top across almost every metric at 74k, but two more highs followed in 2025 at 112k and 124k alongside bearish divergences. Or June 2022, which measured as a cycle bottom but the real one was not until November that year with a bullish divergence. There are other logarithmic/rainbow models this cycle that are at their absolute lows and on the verge of collpase. I think these models will fail. Data interpretation is a tricky game.

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·1 Tem

The Second Low Band of the Bear Bands has confirmed its breakdown, and price has retested it as resistance. The timeline for this model is August - October to reach 44.5k, and November - January to reach 29k. Given the amount of space (not very much) that most data has before bottoming, I could see that happening at 46k instead of 29k. Certainly not a convincing bottom at current prices though.

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·1 Tem

Everyone has their opinion on what "everyone" is thinking right now, so I'll be adding mine as an update to the Bitcoin Calendar of the Masses: "Bottom is in, We Did It!" There are lots of confident claims that the cycle bottom is in, citing some profit loss metrics at cycle bottom levels and bullish divergence forming on Weekly RSI. This sentiment is a far cry from the typical apathy and overwhelming doom narratives I have seen at previous cycle bottoms. I am staying open to different possibilities, but the trifecta of the cycle bottom is not there yet for me (cycle timing, enough data triggers, psychology).

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·29 Haz

Traditional metrics like NUPL still say the Bitcoin cycle bottom is not in. That joins MVRV and the Puell Multiple. I'm not very interested in looking for a cycle bottom right now anyway because the most accurate "metric", The Halving Cycles Theory, is still far off from the cycle bottom time frame. (At least 4 Months) "But buying at the end of the year is everyone's plan! It can't be right!" First of all, not everyone's. Plenty of people have called the bottom here, some for the second time this bear market. Second, many people had a plan to sell at the end of the last cycle, but failed to see it in real time. It's always different when you're in the moment. The hardest part of the bear market is staying off the trigger.

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·25 Haz

Just above the unification zone now, where all previous bear market activity lines up. Bitcoin would need to be at least 52k to get there. Again, this zone also implies a slow grind down to 35k by September. Compared to other bear markets, there really hasn't been anything unusual so far after almost 9 months in.

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·23 Haz

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_

Bitcoin continues to ride on the broader enthusiasm of the stock market to complete a bear market bounce. The new *shiny thing*, like Gold and precious metals just months ago, has become semiconductors and other AI related investments. The 2 Week Aroon Oscillator has finished its first pivot of 2 for the Bitcoin bear market. Another simple observation... cycle bottoms have followed a pattern of coming one month earlier than the last: January 2015, December 2018, November 2022. October was already a very plausible month for the cycle bottom, so this only adds to that. Unlike precious metals, I do not think AI investments are due to enter a bear market because of the broader market cycle. But, it is obvious they are parabolic, and parabolas always have an expiration.

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·23 Haz

Ah... that looks like a more suitable point 1 for the bear market. A move to the cycle bottom mark on the Aroon Oscillator, in the same month as all other point 1's (June). One more move to cycle bottom levels should make point 2.

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·22 Haz

Are bear markets getting less severe over time? Percentage-wise, yes, that's been the trend. 86%, 84%, 77%. Data-wise, no. Unlike cycle tops which show a clear diminishing across nearly all data, cycle bottoms have been very consistent. Logarithmic MVRV is not at cycle bottom levels. The very accurate and more conservative cycle bottom target of the Realized Market Cap MA, 42.5k, has not been reached. A move there would be a 66% drop which is still over 10% less than last cycle's bear market. And again, more aggressive cycle bottom targets like the magic band's low 30k's are not off the table.

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·17 Haz

It is not as straightforward as: "when MVRV crosses this line, the cycle bottom/top is in" Now we're seeing multiple cycle top and bottom readings, many metrics which were previously accurate have no readings at all. Multiple divergences across cycle tops and bottoms. In October 2025's case, it was the second major bearish divergence. The data that is truly accurate is much harder find. This is what I've noticed

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Kemop@Kemoppie·17 Haz

@CryptoCon_ Why do you think data is getting more difficult to interpret?

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·17 Haz

On the Magic Bands V2, Bitcoin is still only halfway to the aggressive cycle bottom target of 29k. Price has broken below level 2 (blue), which has happened at various points in other bear markets. The common thread is a move to Level 1 (yellow) and eventually the cycle bottom band (red). I'm not saying that Bitcoin must go to the cycle bottom band this bear market (although it is possible).... but to have excellent consistency across all cycles and then bottom in the middle of the bands would not make sense. I believe data is getting progressively more challenging to interpret. This has already been true for the past two cycle tops and the last cycle bottom. What looks like an obvious weekly bullish divergence on RSI like November 2022 may prove to be just a red herring.

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·15 Haz

The collective consensus amongst crypto X seems to be that the cycle bottom is in. That alone gets me pretty disinterested in looking for the low here. Of course, the bear market according to the Havling Cycles Theory is not over until November 2026 - January 2027. It is no surprise that "this time is different" is coming back up. This time, the plausible story is data interpretation. A potential bullish divergence is forming on Weekly RSI, just like November 2022. Some metrics are bottoming out. From my perspective, most have not. So, I will once again take the contrarian position during this bounce and say the cycle bottom is not in. The opportunity I'm looking for is the trifecta of psychology, data positioning, and cycle position.

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·11 Haz

After a predictable move to neutral on Ultimate Fear and Greed in the time frame we'd expect it, the next logical move is back to extreme fear. From this point, F&G usually does this 2 more times before the cycle bottom is in.

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·10 Haz

@jaisonricardo No problem!

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@Águia Aposentada@jaisonricardo·10 Haz

@CryptoCon_ Thank you very much.

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·10 Haz

Gold looks right on track to start its 4 - 5 year bear market according to the 10/4 Cycles Theory. It had a perfect 10.5-year bull market with a parabolic top in January of this year. Gold and other precious metals are set up to start recovering just before the predicted recession period of the Quartcent Cycles Theory (2034 - 2041). For now, precious metals should take a back seat. But in 5 years from now... it could be a good pivot during the 10 year market pause.

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_·10 Haz

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CryptoCon@CryptoCon_

Introducing... my cycles theory for Gold, which I am calling the "10/4 Cycles Theory". It says that Gold operates around a 15 year cycle. The bull market takes 10 - 11 years, while the bear market takes 4 - 5 years. In February of this year, the bull market would have ended, which begins the 4 - year bearish phase of the cycle, set to last until 2030 or 2031. The cycles have incredible accuracy when viewed this way, with one interesting example of a failed bull market period between 1985 and 1996. You can see where the two cycle top events (red dots) landed and fell flat during that time in their appropriate places. The cycle begins with one bottom event and is followed by two top events, which are the major points. These come during precise 1.5-year windows in the peaks and troughs of the sine wave cycle. This is my latest major cycles theory to join the Halving Cycles Theory (Bitcoin) and the Quartercent Cycles Theory (S&P 500). All of which remain accurate to the current date. For the 10/4 Theory to be successful in the near term, the bull market must end by July 2027 at the latest, which is at the end of the 10 - 11 year window. It seems highly probable, though, that February 2026 fulfilled this.

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