Crypto Kindie

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$BTC Weekly Not looking great tbh 😅 Why? > Lost support @ 100k > Lost the Weekly 50MA as bull run support > Currently testing Golden Pocket support, an important Fib Retracement support zone on the HTF Weekly. > Record ETF outflows. BTC is macro bearish, for now. Two major support levels to watch: > 70Ks, previous ATH, already confirmed flipped to support last April. > 50Ks, the Weekly 200MA is at 55k - this zone acted as a major pivot zone before the last leg-up to 100k.

$BTC H4 First sign of strength on the 4 Hour, bullish divergence at 88k. Local resistance at 94k - Bull will wanto to rip a hole through 94k and break this downtrend 🤞

$BTC Daily Bitcoin printing a Bull Div at macro support 👀 The last time #BTC printed a Bull Div on the Daily was April, when the Weekly 50MA was backtested and confirmed as support. The Weekly 50 has been backtested 4 times, each time a Bull Div has printed on Daily RSI. Same technical setup, similar macro context, just a few more cracks, dents, and scratches. The liquidity tap remains on. Plan for both scenarios - just because the Weekly 50MA has survived 3 other backtests, it doesn't guarantee it'll hold a 4th.

$FET Daily Breakout on the Daily 🫡 Retesting the Daily 50MA, bulls need to flip it to support and close the Daily in the 40s. Confirm the flip and 60c is next up 🎯

$BTC Weekly Futures tapping the Weekly 50MA for the 3rd time this Bitcoin cycle, and holding to close the Week. Let's see if spot can reciprocate on Sunday.

$RENDER Monthly Bulls reclaiming key support @ $2.5, for now - nice bounce from trend support 💪 Plenty of room to the upside if bulls get going - even a test of wedge resistance is a 340% move.

$FET Monthly Zoomed out for a better view: > 70c is the next zone to watch, last summer's resistance. > Monthly trend intact - 20c needed to hold, and it did.

$FET Daily Breakout confirmed with volume 🔥

$FET Daily Technical breakout in progress: > Bull Div on Daily RSI, now is where you want to see volume spike. > Volume has been way up since the recent Black Swan event. If you invert that chart, it'd be a sell all day. Textbook setup, invalidated on a lower low.

$BTC Daily This is what capitulation at $100k support looks like 👇

@Rendoshi1 I'd be happy with that, and a nice slingshot from out of the lows on volume - not to much to ask for really.

@CryptoKindie my ideal situation would be BTC touches 93k, SOL touches 130k (I buy both), and then it wicks back above downtrend before week ends 😁

Bought some $SOL at $161 My fist DCA on this dip. Even if cycle is over should get a good bounce from here.

@Rendoshi1 until it closes below on the weekly, it's testing. A wick is ok, a close is not ;) x.com/CryptoKindie/s…

@CryptoKindie its already tested and broke below hasn't it?

$BTC Weekly Wicks are fine - a close under the Weekly 50MA is not. If the 50 is lost, the real test will be the backtest. If that fails, it’s over for the cycle imo. But context matters - every Bitcoin bear market has aligned with tightening liquidity and a stronger dollar. Historically: > Each major BTC top (2013, 2017, 2021) followed a liquidity squeeze - slowing M2 growth, rising real yields, and a stronger DXY. > No bear market has ever started while global liquidity was expanding. > Bitcoin peaks late in liquidity expansions and bottoms late in contractions. Right now, liquidity is still expanding. Bitcoin has never entered a bear market under those conditions 🤷‍♂️

$BTC Weekly Decision time for #Bitcoin ⏰ Every cycle, when BTC loses the Weekly 50MA as support, it hasn't been a dip - it's marked the transition into a bear market, correcting down toward the Weekly 200MA (now sitting in the $50Ks). Price is testing the 50MA again. Either bulls defend it as they have since March 2023 - or they don’t. This pivot matters for #ALTs too. If #BTC holds here, that likely marks the bottom across the board.

Liquidity was already paper-thin on alt books before the Oct 10 liquidation event - it's even thinner now. Depth on most mid-caps is down 40-60% since September. That means even small market sells now slice through bids. The players who got wiped out on 10/10 haven’t replenished yet - or can't. That takes new inflows or new leverage, and neither's here. Altcoins run on momentum. When momentum dies, liquidity drains, and price starts free-falling through air pockets. So what you're seeing isn't a new 'collapse' - it's the same downtrend continuing through a thinner market. Until spot and perp liquidity rebuild, every bounce is just redistribution 👍

Anyone with real information on WHO has actually been liquidated & how much??? It feels like this move down is based on a combination of panic and front running from those expecting another collapse on the scale of Celsius & FTX...

$BTC The 4-year cycle is extending. But it’s less about the Bitcoin halving - and more about the liquidity cycle. Cycle length keeps expanding: 368d > 526d > 548d - while ROI compresses. The halving effect is fading - liquidity is the new driver. Each cycle = more time, less multiple, deeper integration with the global liquidity tide. The liquidity cycle keeps stretching because debt keeps growing. More liquidity must be injected just to sustain the system - to roll debt, to backstop growth, to avoid deflation. The US (and most G7 economies) can’t tighten meaningfully without breaking something. Until the tap gets turned off, that liquidity will keep looking for a home. And that home is still assets. #Bitcoin

$BTC | $GOLD Bitcoin sits on macro support against gold: > 7-year uptrend support > Monthly structure + 50MA confluence > Local demand zone retest Gold has already completed its measured move into the $4K range - overdue for consolidation. Meanwhile, BTC has spent a full year compressing in a tight range - a classic distribution-to-accumulation transition as old hands hand off to institutions. Two months max before Gold dominance fades. 🫡

@Rendoshi1 Nice post, the longer format suits you 😉

$BTC - longer post on thoughts and details of why I went risk off a few weeks ago, but didn't sell 100%, and thoughts moving forward. Reasons to consider risk off: - Large bearish divergence on RSI. - DAT buy pressure slowed significantly - Cycle has already lasted longer from absolute bottom to now than both previous cycles - Diagonal uptrend broke, slowing momentum. Waiting for 50 wk SMA is too long, as alts would be rekt by then. Why I didn't sell 100%: - 50 wk SMA still not broken, this is at about $103k and probably the most important level. - Wanted to wait for FOMC to understand Fed intentions. - Many top signals not hit yet, and was hoping for a Q4 alt season. Action I decided to take: - Increased stable coins to 50% - Sold most higher risk alts and alts with relative weakness - Kept 90% in BTC, SOL, and bit of ETH. Kept rest in coins that I thought might have better relative strength or momentum. e.g. SYRUP, TAO, ONDO, AAVE. (plus some coins locked in long term staking SXT, LINK etc) - Trade new coins with very small amounts just to stay entertained (Ghost etc) - This allowed me to stay hedged in case there was another leg up. Next step: - Some of the alts sold are already 30%+ lower so tempted to start buying dips, but will remain patient for now. - 50 wk SMA still key level to watch - $103k. If that fails $93k and $74k will be my next areas to watch. - For now there's still a possibility of a final leg up. I don't believe there will be a 1 year bear market like previous cycles. I also don't think a correction would be as aggressive as last cycle, as we also didn't go up as much. I think the 4 year cycle is somewhat still in tact but getting weaker each time. A good capitulation sooner rather than later could help reset momentum, and allow people to get high value entries. Next year Trump likely to push very stimulative actions, so I won't be waiting too long to get good entries. For now I think lower is still more likely than new highs.