CryptoRaro

RWA tokenization crosses $20B Tokenized real-world assets just crossed 20 billion dollars on-chain. Treasury settlements. Cross-border payments. None of it moved Bitcoin a dollar this week. That’s the point. The rails compound on a different clock than the price. Boring now, decisive in three years.

FOMC 94%, and why that’s not comfort The Fed meets in nine days and markets now price a 94 percent chance of no change. Don’t read that as comfort. A hold isn’t neutral when the market wanted cuts. It confirms higher for longer. This is the chair who held in June while removing the cuts. Bitcoin fell from 70k to 60k after.

57 transits vs 130 daily pre-war One statistic tells you more about this conflict than every headline combined. 57 vessels crossed the Strait of Hormuz between Friday and Sunday. Before the strikes, roughly 130 crossed every single day. One analyst’s phrase: grinding to a halt. Brent’s at 85, up 19 percent from pre-war.

Correction from Wednesday. I wrote that Trump reintroduced a 20 percent fee on ships transiting Hormuz. That’s backwards. He abandoned that demand. The naval blockade was reimposed. I conflated the two and didn’t check the primary source. Fourth correction in 72 editions. Better from me than from you.

Prediction markets absorbing retail speculative capital I’ve spent seven editions describing why altcoins don’t catch a bid without being able to explain it. I think this is why. Crypto prediction market volume is up 44x, to 218 million in daily contracts. The retail bid didn’t leave. It moved to binary event contracts. Same risk appetite, different product.

@AgogoKaren @FugzOfficial @yotdog69 Fugalociuos mama 🫶

Oh, for Fugz sake…keeping with my favorite color 💜💜 @FugzOfficial @yotdog69

The 2017 crypto bull market was something that will never happen again quite like that. Only 1,300 coins existed. A project could announce a website redesign and pump 10x overnight. The entire crypto market cap went from $18 billion to over $600 billion in a single year. Altcoins were doing 500x to 1000x. People were maxing out credit cards and taking out loans to buy anything with a whitepaper. Pure retail FOMO with zero institutional involvement and zero government oversight. Some exchanges were even sending attractive women to whale traders just to convince them to use their platforms. No regulations. No ETFs. No BlackRock. No government. Just the internet, retail money, and complete chaos. Those who were there will never forget it. Those who weren't will never fully understand it.

Flows are ~45% of weekly moves; refining my own line Here’s the number that resolves it: ETF flows explain roughly 45 percent of Bitcoin’s weekly price moves. A lot. Not most. So the flow signal wasn’t wrong this week. It got outvoted by the other 55. I’ve said watch the flows, not the candle. Refining that: flows tell you who’s buying, macro tells you if it matters.

The ETF test I set finally passed. Three straight green days, 368 million, spread across three issuers instead of one fund. Bitcoin still finished the week under 63,000, down from a 65,600 high. The flows came back and the price fell anyway. That deserves an explanation, not a victory lap.

Been a minute since I’ve played @TollanUniverse on @AbstractChain but with the flash badge a few days out from ending decided to claim mine. Spent $7 for the pass and on the first run snagged a lovely surprise.

@brian_armstrong 🟦

Based

🟦😂🤣😂 what timeline am I in please send me back to mine 😭

@jbondwagon @brian_armstrong Is it really his thou???

JUST IN: @brian_armstrong changed his PFP to an actual Cryptopunk 👀 After being bullied by CT for repping a fake punk as his PFP, the Coinbase CEO had enough & decided to rep a real punk The PFP he uses is Cryptopunk 4441 This punk has been a part of a buying spree last June when we saw a single buyer spend 499 ETH ($780K) on 3 rare punks Is this anon buyer Brian Armstrong?

Why we will never get retail back 🤦🏽‍♂️ had a feeling this would be the norm back in October 2024 when that rug pull tutorial vid came out and had over 10k bookmarks 😭

@ProofOfEly @brian_armstrong For some reason it didn’t on both

@CryptoRaro @brian_armstrong if you sold before screenshot wouldn't it show in the screenshot?

Thanks @brian_armstrong

Noooooo go away 😂🤣😂

@ProofOfEly @brian_armstrong Sell than screen shot lessons Learnt from Abs

@CryptoRaro @brian_armstrong show me your exit

@ProofOfEly @brian_armstrong 🤦🏽‍♂️😭🤣🤣

@StarPlatinum_ Cooked if you bought the top 😭

So you are telling me Brian Armstrong - gets accused of using a fake CryptoPunk PFP - changes his profile picture to a meme of himself - CT pushes (again) $BRIAN on Base - token runs to $33M market cap - Brian changes his PFP again - the narrative dies - $BRIAN crashes 95% - holders get cooked Insane PFP meta