Crypto Wave Vision

$BTC Bitcoin should now move in the smaller fractal impulse toward wave 5, where one could go long to trade the short-term counter move. However, the risk-reward ratio isn’t ideal, and we’re heading into the weekend. Personally, I’ll sit this opportunity out and see how we trade on Monday. Most likely we’ll just get a relief bounce over the weekend, and on Monday we might be able to add to shorts.

$BTC

$BTC That’s the alternative I’m keeping open.

$BTC Bitcoin update: The bearish cross on the 4H chart is now officially in and confirmed. There are now two options: Either you go short here and place your stop above the high at 76,000. However, this carries the risk that we might see a stop hunt driven by news, which could take you out before the move continues. You could then re-enter after the stop hunt. Right now, the risk-reward ratio is about 1:7.5. Even if you get stopped once and re-enter with the same RR, you’d still have around 6R potential on the downside. Or you play it a bit safer and place your stops higher, around the 78,000 area, to avoid getting wicked out. The downside is that your risk-reward drops to around 1:3. Everyone has to decide for themselves. But the bearish cross is now in, we have divergence, and the RSI is in overbought territory. You could say this is a relatively strong signal to speculate on. Personally, I’m short and expect a move below 60,000.

I will open a long in wave 5 — update will come once I’ve identified wave 4. If my bearish outlook turns out to be wrong and the bullish alternative I have plays out, I’ll be positioned in both directions. For now, I still consider the bullish deviation unlikely, but I want to be positioned regardless.

$BTC update: Bitcoin is slowly breaking out of its range and moving into the short zone I originally identified for a final short targeting areas below 60k. At the moment, I don’t plan to short right at the lower boundary yet, because the breakout is still very fresh and there are no clear signs of weakness so far. If we assume a WXY structure, the final upward move also needs to count as a three-wave structure, and the 1:1 projection of the last Y wave would give a potential short entry around 77k. For now, I’m watching how price reacts once we reach that area and whether any weakness signals appear there. At the moment, the indicators are not showing anything yet, which is why I consider 77k a realistic target. Personally, I’m waiting for bullish momentum to start weakening, which should be visible on indicators like the MACD. Once we start seeing light-green momentum candles and a bearish cross forming alongside a divergence, that would be a fairly “safe” signal to prepare for a final short. However, as long as momentum remains strong through these levels, I would personally stay patient and avoid opening shorts for now.

$BTC Update on Bitcoin — it’s a bit tricky. Primarily, I still expect that we eventually sweep into the 56k zone. However, we shouldn’t ignore the fact that price is holding up quite strongly and the upward move wasn’t perfectly corrective. It might be worth keeping an eye on the marked zone for potential bullish signals in case the trend starts shifting there.

$BTC I’m out at breakeven now. Let’s see how we react around 75.

$BTC The short position is open.

$BTC The short position is open.