Crypto Crank

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Anyone think they have backup plans that don’t involve printing money to cover it?

Keep an eye on this Rep. Sheri Biggs (R) just disclosed buying up to $250,000 of Bitcoin $IBIT on March 4th There's a bill sitting in the Senate right now to create a Strategic Bitcoin Reserve If it passes, the US government starts buying bitcoin at a large scale And this isn't her first time buying Bitcoin. Last July her husband bought up to $250,000 of $IBIT one week before pro-crypto legislation passed. She was flagged for disclosing it late Unsurprising to none, $IBIT was up 12% within 3 months of their purchase

OpenAI is spending $10 billion with the company whose entire business is displacing NVIDIA GPUs in inference. Four months after NVIDIA "invested" $100 billion in OpenAI. September 22, 2025: NVIDIA announces a $100 billion letter of intent to invest in OpenAI. September 24, 2025: OpenAI's CFO tells CNBC most of the capital will be used for NVIDIA chips. October 2025: SoftBank sells its entire $5.83 billion NVIDIA stake and reallocates toward OpenAI and AI infrastructure. January 14, 2026: OpenAI signs a $10 billion, 750 megawatt multi-year agreement with Cerebras. Four primary disclosures. One mechanism. No one has compressed them in public. The closed loop was presented as NVIDIA's moat. It has already surfaced as the fracture. NVIDIA at $4.88 trillion is not a stock. It is a container holding five fractures the market has priced independently. Circular financing. Depreciation arbitrage. Custom silicon substitution. Helium and sulfur wall. Power wall. Q3 2026 is when they come due together. The earnings-quality signal no analyst has named. Ernst and Young signed Amazon, Meta, and Alphabet 10-Ks inside one calendar month in January 2025. Three different answers on the useful life of the identical asset. Amazon shortened from six years to five, citing "the increased pace of technology development, particularly AI and machine learning." Meta extended to 5.5 years for a stated $2.9 billion depreciation benefit. Alphabet held at six. One auditor cannot hold three answers forever. NVIDIA's largest narrative customers are already shipping silicon that is not NVIDIA. Anthropic past one million Trainium 2 chips. Google Ironwood in production. Microsoft Maia 200. Meta and Broadcom on four new MTIA generations in two years. Cerebras at 750 megawatts. Not rumor. Capital-committed, production-shipping fact. AI capex keeps rising. NVIDIA's share of the rent does not. The binding constraint is no longer GPUs. It is megawatts, helium, and sulfur. PJM's 2027/28 capacity auction cleared 6,623 MW UCAP short at the $333.44 per MW-day cap. Qatar LNG repair timeline per CEO al-Kaabi: three to five years. ADNOC April 2026 sulfur: $600 per tonne, up from $520 in January. TSMC CFO Wendell Huang on April 16: chemical and gas cost impact on profitability "too early to quantify." TSMC beat Q1 2026. Raised full-year revenue growth guidance above 30%. Pushed capex to the top of its $52 to $56 billion band. TSM closed down roughly 3% on the print. When a record beat and a guide-up cannot hold the tape, the market is already pricing the tail the company itself warned about. Four populations are betting in four directions on the same $4.88 trillion security. Insiders: billions in sales across hundreds of Form 4 filings, zero open-market purchases. Hedge funds: fastest global equity selling in thirteen years per Goldman prime brokerage, March 2026. Retail on Capital.com CFD: 90.4% long. Sell-side: 41 buy, 1 hold, 1 sell, average 12-month target $273.57. Smart money is out. Retail is all in. Someone is wrong. Central probability of a 30%+ repricing inside 18 months: 55 to 65%. The thesis dies only if TSMC Q2 prints above 67% gross margin with no chemical cost language, NVIDIA FY27 Q1 beats and raises with no hyperscaler restating server useful life, and two custom silicon programs publicly cancel. Until then, the regime shift has already occurred. The portfolio weighting has not caught up yet. Full 12,000-word primary-source NVDA thesis - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

Owning a car in America has never been this expensive: The total cost of vehicle ownership in the US has risen +36% since January 2020. Motor vehicle maintenance and repair costs have surged +50% over the same period, jumping +6.1% YoY in March alone. Meanwhile, auto insurance prices are up +56% while motor vehicle parts and equipment are up +27%. Vehicle ownership costs account for nearly 15% of the CPI inflation formula. This means these costs are one of the biggest drivers of the rising cost of living for American households. Car inflation is squeezing US consumers.

Former Treasury Secretary is concerned that the US govt is close to hitting a wall where there would not be enough buyers for US govt debt. At some point, buyers won't bid on new debt unless the rates are higher to justify the risk. With nearly $40 trillion in debt, $2 trillion annual budget deficits and 25% of all tax revenue going ... it is just a matter of time before investors start demanding higher rates for the risk they are taking. The market generally assumes that if there are not enough buyers for US govt debt, the Fed will be forced to become the buyer of last resort. The only thing the Fed can do is print money (digitally) to buy the debt, which they do via the Primary Dealers. Primary Dealer banks buy the US govt debt at auction, then the Fed buys it from the Primary dealers. Thus the Fed can pretend it is not funding the govt. The Fed will claim it is just providing liquidity to the banking system. It is all BS, it is basically the Fed just printing money to fund the govt and giving a small guaranteed profit to the big banks in the middle.

🚨PERPLEXITY JUST LAUNCHED SOMETHING THAT MAKES EVERY OTHER AI PRODUCT LOOK LIKE A TOY.. AND NOBODY IS TALKING ABOUT IT.. They built a Personal Computer.. Not an app.. Not a chatbot.. A full digital worker that runs 24/7 on a Mac mini even while you sleep.. You press both command keys.. And it wakes up.. Ready to work.. But here's where it gets insane.. This thing doesn't run on one AI model.. It runs on 19 of them.. At the same time.. It uses Claude Opus for complex reasoning.. Gemini 3.1 Pro for deep research with a 2 million token context window.. Nano Banana Pro for 4K images.. Grok for fast tasks.. It doesn't just pick one model and hope for the best.. It reads your task.. Breaks it into subtasks.. And routes each one to whichever model is best at that specific thing.. All running in parallel.. While ChatGPT is still thinking about your first question.. Perplexity has already split your project into 6 pieces and assigned each one to a different AI.. And here's the part that should worry OpenAI.. Perplexity hallucinates at 3.3%.. ChatGPT hallucinates at 12%.. Claude at 15%.. It's not even close.. Because Perplexity is built differently.. Every other AI tries to remember facts.. Perplexity searches for them first.. It's structurally forced to cite live sources before it's even allowed to generate a response.. OpenAI Operator launched with a 32.6% success rate on computer-use tasks.. People called it "the world's most anxious intern" because it pauses every 5 seconds to ask if it's doing the right thing.. Perplexity runs multi-hour and multi-day workflows independently.. Only interrupts you when it hits a decision that actually matters.. You can start a task from your iPhone on the train.. And it executes on your Mac mini at home.. The economics are wild too.. Internal studies show it saved teams an average of $1.6 million in labor costs.. Performing 3.25 years of work in four weeks.. And unlike every other AI company.. Perplexity dropped ads entirely.. They charge $200 a month because they said they're in the "accuracy business".. Not the advertising business.. They even launched a $42.5 million publisher program to pay media partners when their content gets cited.. While OpenAI is getting sued by every newspaper on earth.. Google and OpenAI want you locked into their ecosystem.. If a better model comes out tomorrow you're stuck.. Perplexity just updates its routing matrix.. You get the best model on earth automatically.. No switching.. No migrations.. No friction.. This isn't an AI assistant anymore.. This is the first real AI employee.. And it costs $200 a month.

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Congrats to Grok. Overlap on AVGO, MSFT, VST at different weights. Skipped MU (I took semis through AVGO alone) and exited TLN in March into VST. I've only been live 16 days so the 1-year flex will have to wait. You're watching my experiment, not getting advice.

MICROSOFT IGNORED HIM. NOW YOUR PC PAYS FOR IT One researcher reported a critical Defender vulnerability privately. Microsoft dismissed it. So he published it - then dropped 2 more in 13 days. The latest is called RedSun. It's unpatched. It works 100% reliably on Windows 10, 11 and Server right now. It doesn't bypass your antivirus. It uses your antivirus as a weapon. Defender tries to restore a flagged file - the exploit redirects that write into C:\Windows\System32. No admin. No popup. SYSTEM access in seconds. -> BlueHammer - patched -> UnDefend - breaks Defender updates forever -> RedSun - unpatched, public PoC on GitHub His message to Microsoft: "I was not bluffing. And I'm doing it again." RCE is reportedly next. That one needs zero physical access.

THE STABLECOIN BEHIND THE CEASEFIRE The man who negotiated the Iran war ceasefire last week is the father of the man who co-owns the stablecoin Pakistan legalized yesterday. Let that sentence load. On April 11, Steve Witkoff, US Special Envoy to the Middle East, landed in Islamabad alongside JD Vance and Jared Kushner for direct talks with Iranian Foreign Minister Araghchi and Parliament Speaker Ghalibaf. Twenty-one hours. The first direct US-Iran contact since 1979. Pakistan mediated. The talks collapsed on April 12. Trump declared the naval blockade on April 13. On April 14, the State Bank of Pakistan issued BPRD Circular Letter No. 10 of 2026, rescinding the 2018 crypto ban. Pakistan’s 259 million people now have a regulated on-ramp into digital assets. On April 15, Prime Minister Shehbaz Sharif declared from the podium that crypto is the tool of the future. On April 17, today, Macron and Starmer are holding a Hormuz security summit at the Élysée without the United States in the room. Read the timeline a second time. Because three months earlier, on January 14, 2026, Zachary Witkoff, the son of Steve Witkoff, landed in Islamabad in a private jet. Waiting on the tarmac were Prime Minister Sharif, Finance Minister Aurangzeb, Army Chief Field Marshal Asim Munir, ISI Director Lieutenant General Asim Malik, and PVARA Chairman Bilal bin Saqib. The welcome had the texture of a state visit. Zachary Witkoff is the CEO of World Liberty Financial, the cryptocurrency platform co-founded by Donald Trump in September 2024. A Trump entity holds 60 percent of the company. Trump family ventures take 75 percent of coin sales revenue. The Financial Times estimated the firm generated one billion dollars in pre-tax profits in its first operational year. World Liberty issues the USD1 stablecoin. Pakistan signed the memorandum to integrate it into the national payment architecture that day. The mediator of the war is the host of the negotiations is the legalizer of the stablecoin is the counterparty of the Trump family is the nation whose Finance Minister sat across from the Special Envoy whose son issues the coin. That is the kill shot. Iran has tolled Hormuz in crypto since mid-March. IRGC-linked addresses moved three billion dollars in 2025 per Chainalysis. The sanctioned regime invented the first maritime crypto toll booth in modern history. The war designed to end it produced a ceasefire brokered by the country that simultaneously legalized the sanctions-proof rail of the war’s architects. Both sides of the blockade now run on the same family of instruments. The chokepoint is no longer geographic. It is custodial. Brent closed April 16 at 94.89 dollars. Platts physical Dated Brent cleared at 131.97 dollars. Gold held 4,828 dollars. DXY at a six-week low. Offshore yuan at a three-year high. The dollar is losing the war it started, and the stablecoin pegged to the dollar is winning the peace nobody has signed. Falsifiable prediction. Within ninety days, USD1 transaction volume routed through PVARA-licensed Pakistani VASPs will exceed two billion dollars, and at least one settlement layer for post-ceasefire Hormuz commerce will clear in Witkoff-linked infrastructure. Kill condition. If Pakistan reverses Circular 10, or if Treasury sanctions World Liberty rails before July 17, the thesis is dead. The petrodollar did not die in a war. It was refinanced in a stablecoin, brokered by the envoy whose son writes the code, in the capital of the country that held the ceasefire. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…

Michael Burry just called the bottom on software stocks He opened a new 3.5% position in PayPal $PYPL at $49.38 yesterday And is adding Salesforce $CRM and MSCI $MSCI this morning, per his Substack His recent purchases: • PayPal $PYPL • Fiserv $FISV • Adobe $ADBE • Autodesk $ADSK • Veeva $VEEV

🔥Gold is a hedge against geopolitical and financial system instability: Since 1971, gold has risen from ~$40 an ounce to ~$4,800, an increase of more than 100 TIMES. This comes as every major shock of the last 50 years, from the end of Bretton Woods to the 2008 Financial Crisis, and the 2020 Crisis, has pushed gold higher. The Bretton Woods system collapsed in 1971 when the US ended dollar convertibility into gold, effectively dismantling the global gold-backed monetary system. The price surge even accelerated after Russian assets were frozen in 2022, while emerging market central banks have stepped up their purchases. Gold has become stronger than ever, and there is no end in sight to this trend.

U.S. Treasury expected to buy back $15 Billion of their own debt this week, equaling their largest buyback in history 🚨🚨

The "Buy Now, Pay Later" crisis: 47% of Buy Now, Pay Later (BNPL) users were late in paying their BNPL loans over the last year. This percentage has risen +6 points from 2025 levels and +13 points over the last 2 years. High-income borrowers, young adults, men, and parents of young kids are among the most likely to miss payments. This comes as 25% of borrowers now hold three or more active BNPL loans at once, driven by Gen Z and Millennials. Furthermore, 29% of users are now turning to these loans for groceries, and 20% for restaurant delivery or takeout. Transactions using BNPL loans are expected to surge to a record $687 billion in volume by 2028, from $334 billion in 2024. Americans are increasingly “fighting” inflation with more debt.

🚨 BREAKING: Rockstar Games breach data obtained through Anodot has been leaked by ShinyHunters. The files total 8.1GB and contain anti-cheat source code, player analytics, game data, Zendesk ticket feeds, financial data and more. A thread analyzing what has been leaked... 🧵

🚨 ALERT: Fake Ledger Live app on Apple’s App Store reportedly drained $9.5M from 50+ victims in just one week, per ZachXBT.

Recently: Rep. Josh Gottheimer made a massive ~$1M purchase of $MSFT (Microsoft) call options Key facts: - The strike price is $320, with an expiration date of 6/18/2026 - He served as GM of Corporate Strategy at Microsoft from 2012-2015 - $MSFT is down ~0.05% since his entry (meaning you could technically enter at a similar price) If anyone in Congress knows a thing or two about Microsoft, it's him

🚨Japan's 10-year bond yield is surging to levels not seen since 1997: The 10Y yield rate rose +5 basis points to 2.49%, the highest in 27 years. Moreover, the 30Y yield rose nearly +10 basis points, to 3.71%, near the highest since the January spike to 3.91%. This comes as US-Iran tensions escalated after President Trump announced a full naval blockade of the Strait of Hormuz, pushing oil prices higher and adding to inflationary pressure in Japan, which is heavily dependent on Middle Eastern energy imports. Meanwhile, persistent yen weakness, currently again near the 160 per USD level, is compounding the problem by pushing up import costs further. As a result, the market is now pricing in a ~54% probability of a BoJ rate hike by April, with a full +25 basis point increase priced in by July. At ~230% debt-to-GDP, Japan's bond market cannot afford to stay on this path for long.

Just In: Hackers minted 1 billion DOT tokens on the Ethereum mainnet and then sold them off. According to Certik, the attack was primarily due to a Hyperbridge gateway vulnerability, which allowed attackers to forge messages and manipulate the administrator of a Polkadot token contract on Ethereum, profiting approximately $237k.