⚛️Crypto Kuuga

Tom Lee just used the ticker $GLXY I repeat, Tom Lee just used the ticker $GLXY

$NBIS isn't the "10x" opportunity everyone thinks it is. Here's why: Competition: $NBIS are significantly dwarfed in size. Of course this offers a potential opportunity, but for a market forecast to grow at 30% CAGR, you can be sure that the $AMZN's, $GOOG's, and $MSFT's will be going big (not just in the US, but also in Europe). This puts into question any moat that $NBIS can build. Currently, they're serving the higher end AI computing market with low prices but hyperscalers will eventually win the price war. Financials: $NBIS has $2.5B in cash and no debt which is great. However, the revenue growth figures we are seeing appear to be exaggerated given PY's numbers. Of course $NBIS may get there but there's no prior evidence or proof of execution which I don't love. Also looking at CAPEX of $490 million last quarter... given $2.5B in cash at these rate you're looking at 5 quarters of liquidity. Of course, I don't think we'll get there because management insist EBITDA breakeven this year (no timing specified because "there's a lot of factors" at play). Just another uncertainty. SBC is also very high...as you'd expect for a company in $NBIS stage of the cycle. However, having SBC the same as revenue last quarter isn't a good sign. Valuation: $NBIS trades at 6.1x NTM Sales $GOOG trades at 5.0x NTM Sales $AMZN trades at 3.1x NTM Sales It trades above the hyperscalers. It also trades above CoreWeave which will be a IPO'ing soon at $27 billion. Given CoreWeave's NTM revenue estimates, it'll be valued at 3.3x NTM Sales...almost half of $NBIS. Given the above risks, it's tough to argue that $NBIS should be trading above hyperscalers who by themselves are a huge bear case to $NBIS. Short term, I think $NBIS will be propped up by Blackwell shortages, market wide hype, and $NBIS inflection point if they can reach EBITDA profitability this year. However, long term, I'd feel way more confident holding $AMZN or $GOOG. $NBIS is currently held up on management promises and guidance rather than execution. There's big risks to holding $NBIS. For me, if I did own $NBIS it would be a speculative bet rather than a strong investment. For now, I'm not making that bet. Disclosure: I do see the bull case for $NBIS. It's important people also understand the above. I have no position for now but that may change. It's on my watchlist but for me too many risks now.