Crypto Bubble Top Indicator

Bubble Top Indicator #25 Hard Signals: 🟩 Funding Rates: Cold 🟩 5D Tether Premium: negative (Bullish) 🟩 Coinbase App Position: >100 🟩 $BTC Dominance: 59% 🟧 Global Liquidity: stalling 🟨 $MSTR Premium: flat 🟧 Treasury Co implosions: neg mNAVs 🟩 OI: unconcerning 🟩 MVRV Ratio: <3.5

Disclaimer: I try my best. I am unlikely to hit top exactly. This is an experiment & personal opinion. It is in no way related to my professional activity and it is not financial advice. It should be taken as one of many indicators. You got to make your own decisions.

Final Verdict: 🟩 Thoughts: Not much change overall and not that sensible to look for tops here of course, but wanted to put one out. Will be irregular timing till watching out for tops makes sense again. Probably a good long term entry, possibly one more leg down but not necessarily.

Bubble Top Indicator #25 Hard Signals: 🟩 Funding Rates: Cold 🟩 5D Tether Premium: negative (Bullish) 🟩 Coinbase App Position: >100 🟩 $BTC Dominance: 59% 🟧 Global Liquidity: stalling 🟨 $MSTR Premium: flat 🟧 Treasury Co implosions: neg mNAVs 🟩 OI: unconcerning 🟩 MVRV Ratio: <3.5

This shall be this week’s Bubble Indicator.

All there is to say:

Making this bi-weekly didn’t help. I am sure nobody is currently concerned that crypto is too Bullish. So I will keep this up, but return when the question might even be on the table at least.

Disclaimer: I try my best. I am unlikely to hit top exactly. This is an experiment & personal opinion. It is in no way related to my professional activity and it is not financial advice. It should be taken as one of many indicators. You got to make your own decisions.

Final Verdict: 🟩 Thoughts: Tbf there just isn’t much week-to-week point in this indicator at the moment. It is designed to pinpoint a time close to the top of a bubble and there simply is no bubble in crypto and there has not been this cycle. Can look to Silver for that. So as I have been at it for half a year pretty much, I ll continue it, but its usefulness will only increase when crypto markets become frothy again. FWIW, I still think the top is not in this cycle (or we are in the middle of a super benign short crypto bear market and will re-accelerate earlier than usual), but this indicator is not a “when to invest” indicator. It is trying to say when stuff is so frothy that we should get off the train. That time will come again :). So for now we keep calm and carry on.

Bubble Top Indicator - Week 24 Hard Signals: 🟩 Funding Rates: Cold 🟧 5D Tether Premium: positive (Bearish), but improving 🟩 Coinbase App Position: >100 🟩 $BTC Dominance: 59% 🟨 Global Liquidity: slowly rising 🟨 $MSTR Premium: flat 🟧 Treasury Co implosions: neg mNAVs 🟩 OI: unconcerning 🟩 MVRV Ratio: <3.5

No changes this week.

Disclaimer: I try my best. I am unlikely to hit top exactly. This is an experiment & personal opinion. It is in no way related to my professional activity and it is not financial advice. It should be taken as one of many indicators. You got to make your own decisions.

Final Verdict: 🟩 Thoughts: No change.

Bubble Top Indicator - Week 22 Hard Signals: 🟩 Funding Rates: Cold 🟧 5D Tether Premium: positive (Bearish) 🟩 Coinbase App Position: >100 🟩 $BTC Dominance: 59% 🟨 Global Liquidity: stalling 🟨 $MSTR Premium: flat 🟧 Treasury Co implosions: neg mNAVs 🟩 OI: unconcerning 🟩 MVRV Ratio: <3.5

Disclaimer: I try my best. I am unlikely to hit top exactly. This is an experiment & personal opinion. It is in no way related to my professional activity and it is not financial advice. It should be taken as one of many indicators. You got to make your own decisions.

Final Verdict: 🟩 Thoughts: Still the same as last week. October 10th wipe out still affecting liquidity. Market still hurting. All else is the same.

Bubble Top Indicator - Week 21 Hard Signals: 🟩 Funding Rates: Cold 🟧 5D Tether Premium: positive (Bearish) 🟩 Coinbase App Position: >100 🟩 $BTC Dominance: 59% 🟨 Global Liquidity: stalling 🟨 $MSTR Premium: flat 🟧 Treasury Co implosions: no implosions but neg mNAVs 🟩 OI: unconcerning 🟩 MVRV Ratio: <3.5