Cryptonary

Memecoins are on fire, but Altcoins look dead… what’s going on? Plus Trump x Xi explanation x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

btw @Pumpfun AURA is one of your babies, come support like Binance just did

A reclaim of 0.10 sets up AURA for all time highs. AURA holders will want to focus on closing above key daily and weekly MA's. If Solana memes are to make a come back this likely sets the tone...

@binance Binance trying to get us to spell AURA

no word begins with A and ends with A

@binance Better late than never...

Covered the privacy meta (ZEC/XMR) meta since last summer.. This move up is no surprise and we expect higher in the future (ofc, u can expect volatility both ways) Thesis: Privacy went from being the norm to a privilege and now people are realising the importance of it as we head into an AGI world..

Treasury companies bought 500% of newly mined Bitcoin last week. Coinbase Premium went negative. Friday ETF flows hit $629M. The buyer is corporate, not retail. That’s a different market.

Everyone says Sell in May. Last 10 years, May was positive 7 of 10. Filter to when the Fed is on hold and it's 6 of 7. The phrase outlived the pattern. Watch June, not now.

Iran/US War Escalation? Plus FED Meeting & Big Tech Earnings Dissected x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

@Schuldensuehner Last 4-dissent meeting was 1992. Balance sheet was $400B. Today it's $6.7T and they still can't agree.

Fed left interest rates unchanged, but statement revealed a deepening division over the outlook for policy amid increased uncertainty caused by the conflict in the Middle East. 4 officials voted against the decision. Miran dissents in favor of rate cut. Hammack, Kashkari, Logan voted against easing bias in the language. (BBG)

@elerianm The front end ran. 2Y +10.7bp on a hold is the market voting with the three regional presidents.

Markets are reacting to the outcome of the Federal Reserve’s meeting, sending yields up across the US Treasury curve (Bloomberg table below) ... and with the 10-year yield now above 4.40%. #economy #markets #investing #investors #federalreserve

@Globalflows S&P at 7,121 is pricing one Fed. Warsh inherits two.

Nothing has changed in my view I AM BULLISH EQUITIES AND HOLDING THE RISK I HAVE

@NickTimiraos Three pulling one way for hawkish forward guidance, one pulling the other for a cut. The committee just told Warsh his reaction function is contested before he sits in the chair. 1992 was a fight over inflation. This one's a fight over who runs the Fed.

NEW: There were *four* dissents on the Fed’s rate pause. Three bank presidents wanted to ditch the easing bias, and a governor dissented for a rate cut. The last meeting with four dissents was in 1992.

The trade: BTC reclaims its 200-day moving average at $84,500 within 45 days of Warsh's first meeting. Daily close below $72K before that and the reaction function thesis is wrong, not early. The hold is priced. The transition isn't.

The chain: Warsh confirmed by June, chairs his first meeting in July. Powell still on the board, still voting. Three regional presidents already on record fighting the easing bias. Within four weeks of Warsh's first meeting, 10Y TIPS compress toward 1.85% as the market accepts the chair can't speak for the committee. Real rates fall, liquidity returns to risk assets, total crypto cap reclaims $4T by Q3. Any link breaks, the trade dies.

The transition is mechanical. The reaction function just got harder. Powell tonight: he stays on the board after May 15. 8-4 vote, three regional presidents dissented to strip the easing bias. Most fractured FOMC since 1992. Warsh inherits a chair. He doesn't inherit a vote.

Senate Banking just voted Warsh through committee. Powell holds tonight. Warsh inherits in June. The transition is now mechanical, not theoretical. The market isn't trading the meeting. It's trading what comes after.

Everyone says gold is the FOMC hedge. Chart says it's being sold while yields rise. That's the trade.

@zerohedge Gold at $4,585. Brent $105. BTC at $76K and falling. The war premium is bidding two of three. Crypto is starved of the same liquidity that's lifting hard assets. That gap closes when the Fed prints, not before.

Top Overnight News President Donald Trump signaled he was unlikely to accept Iran’s latest proposal to end the conflict after Tehran proposed a plan that would reopen the Strait of Hormuz while leaving questions about its nuclear program for later negotiations. CNN OpenAI recently missed its own targets for new users and revenue, stumbles that have raised concern among some company leaders about whether it will be able to support its massive spending on data centers. WSJ China’s top leadership on Tuesday pledged to take more “forceful” measures to strengthen energy security and shore up business confidence, as the country faces economic headwinds from the protracted US – Iran standoff in the ME. Nikkei The BoJ kept interest rates steady on Tuesday but three of its nine-member board proposed hiking borrowing costs, signaling policymakers' concerns over inflationary pressures from the Middle East conflict. The central bank also sharply revised up its price forecasts and ‌stressed vigilance to the risk of an inflation overshoot, signaling a strong chance of a rate hike in coming months. RTRS Investors are reverting to a pre-war playbook of betting Asian stocks will outpace US peers due to the region’s central role in the AI boom. The MSCI Asia Pacific Index’s 14% surge so far this month has outpaced the S&P 500’s 9.9% gain. BBG ECB survey reveals a spike in inflation expectations as consumers react to fallout from the Iran war. Additionally, the survey revealed a larger than expected tightening of credit standards due to higher perceived risks and lower risk tolerance. ECB Keir Starmer faces a high-stakes vote today on whether to begin an investigation into his assurances to Parliament that due process was followed in Peter Mandelson’s appointment as US ambassador. BBG Wall Street dealers’ Treasury holdings have jumped to the highest level since the global financial crisis as the Trump administration’s cut to regulation nudges banks back into the $31tn debt market. FT Foreign-based automakers have warned the Trump administration that they are looking at pulling their cheapest car models out of the U.S. market if the U.S.-Mexico-Canada Agreement isn’t renewed or is watered down, according to people familiar with the discussions. WSJ Thus far in 2026, there have been 25 IPOs greater than $25 million in value, totaling $14 billion in gross proceeds. This represents a nearly 80% increase in both the number and value of IPOs relative to this time last year. Roughly 40% of this year's IPOs have been Industrials companies compared with the historical annual average of 10% since 1995. In contrast, there have been no IPOs YTD in the Information Technology sector despite the sector representing 25% of IPOs since 1995: GS