Cryptonary

Inflation Collapsed. The War is Escalating. Which side will the market pick? x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Saylor Selling. Bombs Dropping. Bitcoin Doesn’t Care. x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Crypto is lower this morning, with SOL down 3.9% and BTC off 1.8%. Overnight, US strikes hit over 80 targets in Iran and Iran retaliated with drones on Bahrain, adding a risk premium to the session. On the corporate side, Bitmine now holds 5.74 million ETH, about 4.8% of Ethereum's supply and continues to be a buyer. In Asia, the KOSPI is currently trading 5% lower on the day and US stock futures hint to a lower open, with memory stocks taking the biggest losers. FOMC minutes are due in 9h, where the statement and dot plot will matter most for yields and crypto liquidity.

Bitcoin at $63k. Trend’s down on every timeframe. But price is sitting on its four-year average. A line it has lived above 98% of the time. Holders dead flat on their cost. Downtrend and deep value on the same chart. That’s a range bottom. The middle is noise. If we reclaim $64k with US spot demand behind it, the downtrend’s broken. Buy. Weekly close under $57.7k, floor’s gone. Sell.

BTC key level overhead is $62.5k. Clear that and it opens up for $66k. If we get summer chop/downside action, expect the lows to be revisited to begin a rounded bottom.

Relief Rally or Crash Coming? Are Memecoins Back? x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

50% of BTC is being held at a loss.. During 4 previous cycles when this stat was flashing, it marked the late stage of the bear cycle. The final holders that capitulate will trigger a new wave of long term buyers that step in for the next cycle. The bottom is.....near.

Bitcoin’s bouncing, but we’re not buying this rally yet. Doesn’t feel like a real turnaround. Big money is still on the sidelines, the main US exchange is lagging, and the pros are still heavily short. Looks more like a short squeeze trap than genuine demand. Until real buyers show up with actual capital, we’re better off staying on the sidelines. Don’t chase this one. What do you think, trap or the start of something real? 👀

All new Cryptonary on the way.

The market is a real mixed bag today. Stocks and small caps actually look pretty strong, so this doesn’t feel like everything is collapsing. But BTC is still stuck near the low-$58k area, gold is getting hit hard, and the bond market is getting twitchy again. That’s why we’re not chasing this bounce yet. For us, it comes down to the lenders. If they stay calm, we don’t panic. If they start pulling back too, that’s when it gets serious.

Bitcoin sitting on the low-$58k line. If it breaks, we head lower. ETF demand is weak, options are defensive, and some holders are selling at a loss. $50k looks hard to avoid. Watch for the bottom. Credit hasn't cracked, so this stays crypto-specific, not a system-wide problem.

Everyone’s bailing on the popular “AI story” stocks and putting money into the stuff that actually makes AI work. Chips. Power. Cooling. The boring physical stuff. Here’s the issue. We’ve got the demand for computing power. We just don’t have enough electricity to run it all. That’s the bottleneck right now. This pressure spills over into Bitcoin, which still can’t get above $60k. When people are confident, they bet on the bottlenecks. When they’re nervous, they cut the risky stuff first

Bitcoin’s in an awkward spot. The chart looks great. Downside protection is expensive, seller exhaustion is flashing, and Strategy’s reserve move takes fear off the table. But flows are poor. ETFs are selling, Coinbase premium is negative. Demand just isn’t here. Bottom’s not in, but a bounce into the mid-$60ks can happen. Break $58k and expect low $50s.

What does “risk-on” even mean right now? Bitcoin’s fighting around $60k. Treasury names still look heavy. At the same time, Micron’s printing monster numbers and Qualcomm’s getting bought because the AI demand is huge. That’s the bit people are missing. The market isn’t hiding from risk. It’s just getting picky. Real revenue is getting rewarded. Leverage, weak balance sheets and “trust me bro” stories are getting sold. So maybe the question isn’t “are we risk-on or risk-off?” It’s “risk-on what?”

Micron ripped today while Bitcoin fell back under $60k and the companies built around holding it got hit even harder. The market is rewarding real earnings and punishing leverage. We’re still risk-off on crypto for now. Credit hasn’t cracked, so this isn’t a full-blown crisis. But until Bitcoin can hold a bounce, we’re not calling a bottom.

BTC's Crashing. ETH vs SOL vs HYPE Debate + Q&A with the team. x.com/i/broadcasts/1…

Bitcoin’s bouncing, but we’re not convinced yet. Yesterday looked more like traders being forced to sell to raise cash than the whole market breaking. Credit is still holding up, which is a good sign. For now, we’re staying patient. No panic and no chasing the bounce. Let Bitcoin show it can hold these levels first.

Gold is down 3% today. BTC is at $59,494, off 5%. Both getting sold at once. When the safe haven and the risk asset fall together, nobody is fleeing to safety. They are raising dollars and selling whatever has a bid. The chart that tells you whether this is a flush or something worse is credit. LQD +0.56%, HYG +0.03%. Both green. Credit is the fuse. It has not lit. So this is a scramble for cash, not a crack in the system. These moves usually end with violent snap-backs. We're not chasing assets already down this hard.