Cryptonary

@sonalibasak @icapitalnetwork Question for BlackRock and Apollo: GLD saw its largest weekly outflow in history ($4.2B) while spot Bitcoin ETFs absorbed $460M the same day. Are your clients treating this as a one-time liquidity event or the start of a structural rotation from gold to BTC as a crisis hedge?

INSIDE @icapitalnetwork — The dance card is full this week. I’m looking forward to my conversations with BlackRock’s Scott Kapnick, Dynasty’s Shirl Penney, Apollo’s Torsten Slok, Cetera CEO Michael Durbin, Carlyle’s Admiral James Stavridis, Jonathan Diorio and of course Michael Arougheti in conversation with Lawrence Calcano, our chairman & CEO. It’s a stacked agenda. We’ll bring home how leaders in wealth and alternatives are navigating this period of tremendous change. Send me your questions. Will try to get them answered.

@unusual_whales The 1970s didn’t have a 24/7 global asset that could reprice energy shocks in real time. BTC is up 8% since Feb 28 while gold is down 15%. If this crisis is worse than the 70s, the safe haven playbook has to be rewritten. The old one is already failing.

Iran war energy crisis is worse than 1970s oil shocks, IEA chief says

@TedHZhang Today: oil moved 14% on one statement that Iran denied within the hour. BTC repriced both the statement and the denial without breaking. Volatility isn’t the risk. The lack of price discovery is.

Low volatility is a hallmark of Healthy markets. We have the complete opposite of that right now.

@krugermacro The flows back it up. $4.2B out of GLD, $460M into BTC ETFs. Same week. The rotation has a paper trail.

Bitcoin has been the best performing risk asset (excluding energy stocks) since the war started; it is up 8.7%.

@EricLDaugh Witkoff and Kushner negotiating while the 30Y sits at 4.97%. The urgency isn’t just diplomatic. The bond market gave this administration a deadline before Trump gave Iran one. Five days works for both negotiations.

🚨 BREAKING: President Trump reveals negotiations are happening with Iran with STEVE WITKOFF and JARED KUSHNER just last night "He told me Iran wants to make a deal BADLY." The regime claimed no talks are happening, but THEY ARE. The regime now has 5 days until the US could strike power plants and energy infrastructure "The talks, I said 5 days to halt or postpone strikes on the electrical...it could happen sooner. But I put down 5 days." "I asked him his reaction to Iranian TV saying there are no talks. He said, he's not sure what they're referring to, because the most recent talks happened LAST NIGHT."

@saylor $42B in new dry powder while BTC sits 44% below its high. Strategy buying through a war, an oil shock, and a bond market crisis. When the biggest corporate holder sees this as the accumulation window, the structural bid under BTC just got a number attached to it.

Strategy announces new $21 Billion $STRC ATM Program and new $21 Billion $MSTR ATM Program. strategy.com/press/strategy…

@CryptoMichNL @Cryptofocus_NL We’re watching, not buying yet. $63K and $50K are the zones to watch. BTC is outperforming everything in this war but the macro headwinds haven’t changed. Fed frozen, 10Y at 4.4%, $9T refinancing wall. Patience over conviction.

#Bitcoin is in the historic bottom zone. That means that, historically, it's a great level to accumulate your positions on. Read more at our friends @Cryptofocus_NL website (in Dutch) here: cryptofocus.nl/nieuws/bitcoin…

@APompliano Gold speedran the crypto bear market experience and the capital left a forwarding address. $4.2B out of GLD, $460M into BTC ETFs. Same week.

Gold has fallen about 25% off its high. With this type of volatility, no one can seriously consider the asset a store-of-value, right?! 😂

@MarioNawfal The war dial didn’t turn down because of diplomacy. The 30Y was at 4.97% this morning, mortgages heading to 7%, and $9T in US debt needs refinancing this year. The bond market turned the dial. Iran knows it. Bessent knows it. Now the market knows it.

🇺🇸🇮🇷 Trump just hit pause on strikes against Iran for five days, calling the talks “very good” and hinting a deal is possible. He’s framing the chaos inside Iran as “regime change,” saying the leadership is completely different now after heavy losses... But the regime is still standing. It feels like the war dial just turned down a notch and diplomacy suddenly took the wheel. Source: @clashreport

Whether it’s insider knowledge or someone reading the bond market in real time, the setup was visible. The 30Y was 3 basis points from 5%, the $9T refinancing wall was getting repriced by the hour, and the pressure to say something was building all morning. The trade followed the stress, not the headline.

5 minutes before Trump’s announcement: * $1.5B notional worth of S&P500 (ES) futures are bought in a single clip. * $192M notional of oil futures (CL) sold. More than 4x-6x any other trade size during the market close. Insiders profited from his lies in broad daylight!

@DeItaone The 30Y was 3 basis points from 5% this morning. The deal timeline isn’t about Iran. It’s about the bond market. Every day without resolution, the $9T refinancing wall gets more expensive. Five days is about how long Treasuries can take this before something breaks.

*TRUMP TO FOX BUSINESS: DEAL WITH IRAN COULD BE 5 DAYS OR SOONER

@zerohedge Third Monday in a row because the bond market forces it. Yields spike overnight, the 30Y approaches 5%, the $9T refinancing wall gets more expensive by the hour. Then a headline drops to relieve the pressure. The pattern isn’t random. The bond market is setting the schedule.

This is the third Monday in a row futures tumble overnight than blastoff on headlines/chatter during the day.

For clarity: we’re not saying buy BTC here. We’re risk-off and expect lower prices ahead. But BTC outperforming gold, silver, and equities during an active war while sitting 44% below its own high is a structural shift worth paying attention to. The data doesn’t care about your bias.

Gold is crashing during a war. Down more than 15% since Feb 28 while BTC is up 7.6%. GLD just recorded the largest weekly outflow in dollar terms in its history: $4.2B in a single week. On the same day $2.9B left gold, $460M entered spot Bitcoin ETFs. The safe haven rotation is in the data. Gold's problem: the Fed is frozen at 3.5%-3.75% while the 10Y is at 4.4%. Gold pays nothing. Gold performed best during wars with monetary easing (2001-2011: $250 to $1,900). It performed worst during wars with tightening. We're in the second scenario. BTC has structural advantages gold can't replicate. Only 2.7M BTC remain on exchanges, the lowest ever recorded. ETFs and corporate treasuries have locked up 12% of total supply. That BTC isn't coming back to market. Gold ETFs have the opposite problem: holders can redeem and sell instantly. Which is exactly what happened. After the 2024 halving, BTC issuance dropped to 3.125 per block. Its stock-to-flow ratio now exceeds gold's. New gold supply increases when prices rise. New BTC supply doesn't. Bitwise projects ETFs will absorb over 100% of new BTC issuance in 2026. If demand exceeds new supply, the only source is existing holders at higher prices. Meanwhile in Washington, the White House crypto advisor publicly floated revaluing Treasury gold certificates from $42.22/oz to market value to fund Bitcoin purchases for the Strategic Reserve. Gold being sold to buy BTC isn't a metaphor. It's a policy conversation. When the first strikes hit Iran on Feb 28, Nobitex (Iran's largest crypto exchange) saw outflows spike 700% within minutes. Citizens didn't buy gold. They converted rials to crypto to move capital out. Crypto markets were the only major markets open that Saturday. Gold futures were closed. We remain in a risk-off regime. BTC still faces headwinds from frozen rate policy and tightening financial conditions. But the fact that it's outperforming gold, silver, and equities during an active war while sitting 44% below its own high tells you something structural has shifted in how capital treats this asset. Gold used to be the asset you bought when everything failed. In March 2026, it became the asset you sell to save everything else. The rotation is in the flow data. It's not a narrative. It's a number.

The timing is hard to ignore. 10Y was at 4.4%, the 30Y nearly hit 5%, mortgages heading to 7%, and $9T in debt to refinance this year. Bessent looked visibly uncomfortable in interviews last week. Markets needed a pressure release. Whether the talks are real or not, the bond market got one.

Trump is officially panicking because US Treasuries and stocks are wobbling, the attacks to Iran power plants ALREADY HAPPENED earlier today and Iran is already set to retaliate after sunset. He is trying to show he is still in control while he isn’t, Iran made it already clear they won’t end hostilities till US has no military bases left in the region and there won’t be anymore risk of repeat of another attack in the future. Feel free to bookmark this post

@LawrenceLepard This is the read. 10Y at 4.4%, $9T to refinance this year, mortgages heading back to 7%. The bond market didn’t ask for peace. It demanded it.

GALACTIC TACO. Bessent showed him the 10 yr.

Iran’s spokesman says there are no talks and accuses the US of timing statements to move oil prices. BTC barely flinched. Still up 3.9% on the day after repricing both the “peace” and the denial within the same hour. The asset that trades 24/7 is absorbing headline risk faster than anything else.

BREAKING: Iran issues a statement DENYING President Trump's post which claimed the US and Iran have had "productive conversations" to end the Iran War: Iran says: 1. "There has been no indirect or direct contact with President Trump" 2. President Trump is trying to "buy time" in the Iran War 3. President Trump "withdrew" from power plant strikes after Iran's "firm warning" 4. President Trump's comments are "psychological warfare" 5. "Hormuz will not return to pre-war conditions as long as psychological warfare continues" Iran has entirely denied all of President Trump's claims.

Iran’s spokesman says there are no talks and accuses the US of timing statements to move oil prices. BTC barely flinched. Still up 3.9% on the day after repricing both the “peace” and the denial within the same hour. The asset that trades 24/7 is absorbing headline risk faster than anything else.

IRAN'S FOREIGN MINISTRY SAYS THERE ARE NO TALKS WITH WASHINGTON AND ACCUSES US PRESIDENT OF BUYING TIME WHILE REGIONAL DE-ESCALATION EFFORTS GO ON.

Since Feb 28: BTC +8%, gold -16%, silver -28%. It repriced war on a Saturday and peace on a Monday. Both times, traditional markets were either closed or slow. The 24/7 edge isn’t theoretical anymore.

BTC repriced this in minutes. Up 4.6% since the announcement. Oil down 8%. Gold still down on the day. When peace signals hit on a Monday morning, crypto was the only market that moved in real time. Again.