Cryptwood

2.5K posts

Cryptwood

Cryptwood

@Cryptwood1

Tradfi full time, crypto part time. STIR, funding and macro day in, day out. No FA , obviously

Katılım Şubat 2021
372 Takip Edilen380 Takipçiler
Cryptwood
Cryptwood@Cryptwood1·
What’s the Jewish equivalent of a taco , do we know ?
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Cryptwood
Cryptwood@Cryptwood1·
RIP Siren .. DCA shorting parabolic moves on cabal coins with low leverage and a lot of patience remains the crypto trade of 2026
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More Jesterly The Giver
More Jesterly The Giver@lazyvillager1·
does anyone else notice that stocks kinda look like a rounded top?
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VIKTOR
VIKTOR@thedefivillain·
A cluster of wallets has deposited/locked 400M $SIREN into Hedgey Finance on February 6, just one day before they did a 3x pump-and-dump on SIREN Today and yesterday, they got all the 400M tokens out from Hedgey and have now consolidated it all into roughly 30 different wallets At the same time, a wallet that seems unrelated to the entity is selling $2M worth of $SIREN tokens, still $1M left to sell 0x78c6d092b95e37bedb0650ca15e0f1c418cdbe18
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Cryptwood retweetledi
Altcoin Sherpa
Altcoin Sherpa@AltcoinSherpa·
Every trader be like
Altcoin Sherpa tweet media
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Joseph Wang
Joseph Wang@josephwang·
Sounds like Powell is going to stay on as a Shadow Fed Chair
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VIKTOR
VIKTOR@thedefivillain·
More than $1bn daily volume on the Binance perp contract of a mid/small altcoin usually coincides with a top That being said, I was surprised $PIXEL managed to get back to the highs to print the Two Towers pattern
VIKTOR tweet mediaVIKTOR tweet media
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Cryptwood
Cryptwood@Cryptwood1·
I can’t believe we will get the chance to short ZEC at over 300 bucks twice in the same quarter
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CryptoCondom
CryptoCondom@crypto_condom·
I tend to think this is the right playbook. Esp since markets have yet to truly price in the private credit crisis brewing or the second order effects of oil rn. Worth a read. 👇
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Cryptwood
Cryptwood@Cryptwood1·
Thankfully there’s people that can explain things better than I can. In higher time frames and with sensible DCA , oil is the short of 2026 with what we know/assume till now
fejau@fejau_inc

While true, people seem to forget that in commodities there are equilibriums. Yes there’s a transient period where margins are high as prices remain elevated vs costs. But over time, if the price is too high, consumption habits begin to change. That family road trip last summer that you took, you might end up skipping it if gas prices are too high for too long. That new tv you were going to buy you put off to next year because more of your paycheck is going to the gas pump and maybe the price of the TV went up 10% because higher energy prices led to higher input costs. These little changes in aggregate begin to shift the demand profile, and can also happen at a time where much more oil supply begins to come online since an oil project that was unprofitable at $60 could be accretive at $100. Eventually, the increasing supply and diminishing demand can lead to a glut. As many great commodity analysts have said, all shortages are followed by gluts. And so, after that period of high margins, the hangover shows up and you end up paying the piper. This whole example is why many prefer a steady equilibrium at a price that balances supply and demand sustainably. It also showcases why if you’re a huge oil bull to not overstay your welcome. Being long oil is in some respects being short human creativity and ingenuity. Eventually this crisis will resolve through human creativity and the natural forces of supply and demand

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Cryptwood
Cryptwood@Cryptwood1·
@ChampionsA13751 I hate to say it , we ve all had these feelings even for a brief second . US airlines are the worst
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Cryptwood
Cryptwood@Cryptwood1·
Send oil straight into my asks. Willing to be wrong but in a 6 month horizon , any price above 100 is a God level short
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Cheshire Capital
Cheshire Capital@Cheshire_Cap·
i cannot remember the last time an asset went from 120 to 80 in one day
Cheshire Capital tweet media
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Cryptwood
Cryptwood@Cryptwood1·
I hate all coins with so many influencers sold and bought for but it needs to be said , ZRO is following all trend lines remarkably well recently
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Cryptwood
Cryptwood@Cryptwood1·
lol timeline is losing it , love it
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Cryptwood retweetledi
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86·
Everyone talks about Iranian oil in barrels. Nobody talks about what is inside them. That difference is why Western refineries have been running shadow networks through Dubai for twenty years to get it despite the sanctions. Crude oil is not a uniform commodity. It is a spectrum of hydrocarbons with different molecular weights, and the composition of a given crude determines how easily it converts into the products refineries actually want to sell: gasoline, diesel, jet fuel, heating oil. The measurement that captures this is API gravity. Higher API gravity means lighter crude with shorter carbon chains, which means lower energy cost to crack, lower processing cost to refine, and higher yield of the light distillates that carry premium pricing. Lower API gravity means heavier crude requiring more energy, more processing steps, more capital equipment, and producing a higher share of lower-value residuals. Iranian Light crude runs at 33 to 36 degrees API gravity with sulfur content between 1.36 and 1.5 percent. That is the refinery sweet spot. It is light enough to yield high fractions of gasoline and middle distillates without excessive processing costs, but heavy enough to produce the full range of products that complex refineries are designed to process. It is what petroleum engineers call an optimal blend crude. Now compare the alternatives. Venezuelan Merey heavy crude runs at approximately 16 degrees API gravity with sulfur between 3 and 5 percent. Refining it profitably requires a coking unit, a hydrocracker, and an extensive desulfurization train. The equipment exists. The economics work for refineries purpose-built around Venezuelan feedstock. It is not a substitute for Iranian crude. It is a different product requiring different industrial infrastructure. US West Texas Intermediate runs at 39 to 40 degrees API with sulfur below 0.25 percent. In theory, the cleanest and easiest crude to process. In practice, it is so light that it does not yield the heavier middle distillates a complex refinery needs to run at full capacity. European and Asian refineries built around medium crudes cannot switch to WTI without blending it with heavier crudes to achieve the molecular weight distribution their process units require. WTI is not a drop-in replacement for Iranian medium. Iranian oil fits where both US shale and Venezuelan heavy do not. It is the liquid that flows through the middle of the global refining system without requiring either the coking infrastructure for heavy crudes or the blending operations for ultra-light shale. That molecular fit is why it commands a persistent premium above comparable grades. It is why Indian refineries maintained Iranian crude purchases through every round of sanctions and negotiated the logistics to keep that flow moving. It is why the Dubai shadow banking and trading network that the UAE is now considering dismantling existed in the first place. The Strait of Hormuz does not just carry oil. It carries the specific category of oil that the global refining system was built to process most efficiently. Closing it does not just reduce supply. It removes the grade of crude that the system runs best on and forces every refinery in the world to run less efficiently on whatever it can find as a substitute. That is the premium embedded in the $82 oil price. Not just volume. Molecular weight. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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Cryptwood
Cryptwood@Cryptwood1·
@ColonelCoochi3 Why the ai agent designed partially to trade like him is not doing well really is a mystery
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