Curious | Macro Lens

Price is what you see Structure shows where price reacts Positioning shows why Markets move on both

@Steve83734896 Feel free to point out what you disagree with

@CuriousMacroX AI slop Use your own brain for posts

Silver miners didn’t follow their usual playbook today 👇 Silver dropped −4% miners dropped about the same That’s not typical miners usually amplify the move But not this time Today’s move in silver was fast driven by yields and positioning That kind of move doesn’t always translate cleanly into equities Miners didn’t lead and didn’t accelerate either They just moved with it That matters because this doesn’t look like broad selling in the sector More a sharp repricing in silver itself If yields stabilize miners don’t need much to start outperforming again

Oil just said it clearly 👇 Iran pulls out of US peace talks and crude jumps +7% Back inside the range Every time diplomacy fades risk gets repriced instantly

I get why you’re thinking that If the war ends silver likely moves higher first Oil would drop inflation pressure eases and yields can come down That helps But there’s more Risk sentiment improves money moves back into risk assets and silver benefits from that Industrial expectations pick up too less uncertainty better growth outlook that supports demand And positioning just got cleared out around key levels So if buyers step back in there the move can extend faster than expected So yes I’d still expect an initial move higher But for it to really run you want yields easing the dollar not pushing higher and buyers actually stepping back in That’s when it becomes more than just a bounce

@CuriousMacroX Do you think silver will rally strong whenever this war ends?

Gold and silver losing support zones while oil moves higher 👇 Oil up ~2.5% driven by renewed Iran tensions Ship seizure uncertain talks and supply risk through Hormuz Markets pricing disruption again even as Trump downplays it on Squawk Box Gold slipped below the 4750 positioning base now trading underneath Next level sits at 4700 right into the 0.5 Oil is reacting clean gold is stuck in positioning Back above 4750 and this likely turns into a failed breakdown Stay below and 4700 comes into play Silver moved straight through support lost 78 and dipped below 77 Now sitting just above the 0.5 Same idea here Reclaim the level and it stabilizes Lose it and pressure builds lower

Silver: this escalated quickly −4% in hours 👇 Earlier today this looked like normal pressure Nothing unusual just some weakness building Then it accelerated Price lost 78 thin support gave way fast Broke through 77 and straight through the 0.5 Now sitting right around that level So what changed Yields pushed higher Warsh’s hearing didn’t help less dovish tone no urgency for rate cuts And that hits silver harder Because silver isn’t just a metal it trades like a risk asset Higher yields = tighter conditions less liquidity more pressure Once 78 broke positioning followed That’s when the move extended Now price is sitting just below 77 around the 0.5 If this level stabilizes this becomes a sharp flush If not next real support sits lower Let’s see if this holds

Gold: this didn’t feel like a normal drop −2.5% in hours 👇 Most didn’t expect this Oil up tensions rising normally that supports gold But today was about yields 2yr and 10yr pushed higher not just yields rising but expectations shifting Warsh’s Senate hearing added to that a less dovish tone no signal of rate cuts anytime soon Higher yields = tighter conditions less room for cuts and that removes the tailwind for gold That shift mattered more than anything else today Now price is sitting right at 4700 a heavy positioning zone just below the 0.5 If this holds this was positioning getting cleared out If it breaks there’s not much below to slow it down Let’s see if this holds

@FalconTrades_x Indeed, oil is back in focus up over 4% today 2yr and 10yr yields are pushing 1.5% higher as well That combination matters it puts pressure on metals

@CuriousMacroX Looks like oil is back in the spotlight

@Team0431 It's back at 78.8 showing some rebound but it's too soon to tell

@CuriousMacroX 반등한거야?

Silver just tapped the 78 support zone 👇 Back at the level it bounced from This is where the last push started and buyers stepped in Holding here would make sense Losing it changes the short term picture Watch how price behaves here

Hard to time it precisely These gaps can persist longer than expected then close fast What I’m watching is confirmation if industrial metals keep pushing while silver holds → catch up likely If they stall → silver adjusts instead So less about time more about who moves first

@CuriousMacroX What's your guess on the timeline for catch-up?

Silver is lagging the cycle and that gap has to close👇 There’s ~550,000 tonnes in reserves That doesn’t mean “what’s left” Just what can be mined profitably at today’s price and costs There’s more in the ground but harder to reach or too expensive to extract So it doesn’t count as supply Now the real constraint Most silver isn’t mined on purpose It comes out of copper, zinc and gold mines So production follows those metals not silver itself If silver demand rises miners don’t just produce more Because they follow a different market and that’s where the tension builds Demand is driven by solar, electrification, electronics Supply is driven by copper, gold, zinc cycles They don’t move together So nothing breaks immediately but the imbalance builds Until price is forced to react Either higher if supply can’t keep up Or lower if demand starts to slow You can see it in the charts 🔹Silver vs copper 🔹Silver vs industrial metals They’ve pulled apart That gap is the mismatch If industrial metals keep leading silver likely catches up If not silver is the one that adjusts

@Peibolfg Thanks, appreciate it. If you have any questions or want to dig deeper into it, just let me know 👍

@CuriousMacroX This chart you've come up with is truly ingenious! First time I see a % increase chart of multiple assets normalized to peaks from specific start points. Truly original, and I believe extremely valid and valuable!

@cryptorover We’ve seen it so many times Into a deadline the tone hardens Sounds like it is falling apart while both sides are just pushing for position Gets tiring to watch but this is usually how the final stretch looks

🚨WARNING: Only 36 hours left until the U.S.–Iran ceasefire expires. Peace talks are falling apart. Iran says reports of a delegation going to Pakistan are false. Trump says Iran has violated the ceasefire multiple times. No deal in sight.

Copper: Structure says react here Positioning says wait 👇 Price is sitting on the 0.618 so from a structure point of view you expect continuation or rejection here But there’s no follow through At the same time price is around 6.10 right in the middle of where positioning is building with heavier clusters sitting at 6.00 and 6.20 So the reaction from structure runs straight into positioning on both sides That’s why price doesn’t expand it stays contained (for now) Above 6.10 it can push toward 6.20 Below it it rotates back to 6.00 As long as that 6.00 – 6.20 range holds this is balance not direction

@ThHappyHawaiian Feels more like a confluence reaction than just the 150hr MA Price is testing rising support and prior resistance in the same area Keeping trendlines clean and consistent helps otherwise it’s hard to isolate what’s actually driving the move

Silver bouncing perfectly off the 150hr moving average and prior resistance turned support Silver bull markets care about the 150hr!

@AshCrypto $5.6M sounds big but in oil markets that’s not a real whale Low leverage (~1x) and barely any PnL → no strong conviction More likely positioning or a hedge ahead of the speech Doesn’t tell you direction just that someone expects volatility

🚨 A whale has opened a $5.6 million Oil short ahead of Trump's speech today. Does he know something?

China data looks fairly neutral here Gold slightly lower Silver a bit weaker More important silver inventories are building SHFE +23k kg today SGE +51k kg on the week That points to supply coming in not tightness If demand was really strong you’d expect inventories to draw down So from a China perspective there’s no clear sign of strong buying

April 21, 2026, the PM markets data in China.

@Adamyso4 @hajiyev_rashad Ah got you I completely misread that 😄 Thought you were talking about me for a second My bad 👍

@CuriousCryptoX @hajiyev_rashad I’m talking about the op

The base of Gold's gigantic 8-month tringle formation projected from the apex targets early $7k price level...