Debabrata Bhaduri

Dogfights. Drones. Naval strikes. Everyone's screaming World War 3. History, nuclear math & IR theory say otherwise. #Geopolitics #Iran #Israel To read my latest article, click on the following link: @debabratabhaduri/us-israel-iran-conflict-is-a-regional-war-not-world-war-599cc412690d" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">medium.com/@debabratabhad…

Planet Labs is withholding visuals of Iran & the region of conflict in West Asia to comply with a request from the US government. The US does not want images of damages out in public. This is only to stop public from seeing it since China & Russia will definitely have their own satellite images. reuters.com/business/media…

The reports emerging from Southern Lebanon this week are an absolute disgrace & a direct assault on the very concept of international law. It is beyond "unacceptable" that Israeli forces have systematically destroyed 17 UNIFIL surveillance cameras with laser technology, effectively blinding the world's primary observers while they conduct operation in Naqoura. Even more gut-wrenching is the cold-blooded reality that the blue helmet is no longer a shield: the killing of 3 Indonesian peacekeepers in recent days, caught in the crossfire of a war they were sent to prevent, is a horrific betrayal of the UN mandate. To target the eyes of the international community while spilling the blood of those serving the cause of peace is a level of strategic arrogance that should leave every global citizen in a state of pure, unadulterated rage.

On 5 Oct 2024, multiple OSINT reports surfaced suggesting Iran may have conducted its first underground nuclear test. A 4.5 magnitude seismic event was detected by the US Geological Survey in a remote area southeast of Tehran, raising suspicions of a covert nuclear test.

In addition to re-arming itself, it is preparing its military for general mobilisation. Such is the situation in the world currently that no country is taking chances & are eager to come out of the ghost of World War 2. bbc.com/news/articles/…

Downing of jets, casualties, missing pilots or PoWs are nothing new. They are part & parcel of any war. These elements do not determine the victory or defeat in a war. The key factor which determines victory/defeat in a war is the simple fact whether the aggressor is able to progress towards its political & military objectives at a particular timeline; whether the defender is able to push-back the aggressor & defend its territories. Said so, warfare is a much more complicated, serious & nuanced affair. There are infinite factors which determine the fate of a war thus a country & a society.

Iran's move to choke off Strait of Hormuz has hit global trade, but the turmoil has a historical parallel in the Suez Canal conflict, when closure of the key trade route saw the US & Iran join hands against Israeli, British & French action in Egypt.

INS Aridhaman (India's 3rd nuclear powered ballistic missiles submarine) has a 7,000-tonne displacement (1,000 tonnes more than its predecessors) & is powered by an 83MW compact light water reactor. With 130m in length, the submarine has been designed for enhanced stealth & will boost India's second-strike capability. Equipped with 8 vertical launch system tubes (compared to 4 in earlier models). INS Aridhaman is capable of carrying 24 K-15 Sagarika missiles (750 km range) or 8 K-4 missiles (3,500 km range).

At some point in 2019 the leaders of @NATO - if it still exists - will likely gather in Washington (if that also remains) to celebrate the alliance reaching its centenary. Should they fail to be there, there are 3 likey potential reasons: 1. @NATO has collapsed 2. @NATO has been superseded by something else 3. @NATO has finally failed to stop the catastrophic war Ernest Bervin, Jack Hickerson & Theodore Achilles built it to prevent.

Jaish-e-Mohammed chief Maulana Masood Azhar's elder brother, Mohammad Tahir Anwar, has died in Pakistan, reportedly under mysterious circumstances. ndtv.com/world-news/moh…

The passing of Qamar Javed Bajwa closes a chapter that, for many of us, is remembered not in dates or doctrines, but in the silent grief of lost soldiers, broken families & years of uneasy nights along the borders. His tenure symbolised a period where hostility felt constant & the shadow of conflict loomed large, leaving behind memories etched in sacrifice & pain. It is difficult to separate the man from the consequences of the uniform he wore & for many, those wounds will never fully fade. Yet, in death, something profound changes, anger softens & the weight of enmity begins to lose its purpose. Today, as news of his passing spreads, perhaps it is a moment not to forget the past, but to release its hold, to let the bitterness rest with him & to choose, however quietly, the path of humanity over hatred. Insaan khatam dushmani khatam

India has watched this pattern before & it reinforces a long-standing strategic caution in India. A European country places its trust in American defence systems, orders precision strike capabilities like Tomahawk missiles & invests billions into platforms such as the F-35. Years later, delivery is delayed or denied. When payments are withheld in response, funds are reportedly redirected or withheld through leverage mechanisms. For India, this is not an isolated transaction dispute. It is a reminder of a deeper structural reality: American defence partnerships are not purely commercial, they are political instruments. India’s hesitation is rooted in history. From sanctions imposed after the 1998 nuclear tests to technology denial regimes, the US has repeatedly demonstrated that access to critical military hardware can be conditioned by shifting geopolitical priorities. In contrast to transactional reliability, India prioritizes strategic autonomy. Dependence on a single supplier, especially one willing to weaponize supply chains, financial flows, or spare parts poses a national security risk. This is why India diversifies: Russian platforms for legacy & scale – Indigenous development under “Atmanirbhar Bharat” – Selective Western partnerships without overdependence Trust in defence is not built on contracts alone, it is built on consistency under pressure. And from India’s perspective, the question remains: In a moment of crisis, will the supplier stand firm or step back? srf.ch/news/schweiz/z…