Saraff

Oh neat, I just realized that yesterday was the 1-year anniversary of the Broken Money video we put out: youtu.be/jk_HWmmwiAs

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Good morning and God bless to our global #Team42 community! Today’s Key Macro Question(s): Is the disinflation process still intact? Today at 8:30am ET, the BLS will release its December #CPI data. Consensus is expecting Headline CPI to nudge up +10bps to 0.4% MoM and +20bps to 2.9% YoY. Consensus is expecting Core CPI to remain unchanged at 0.3% MoM and 3.3% YoY. So, in essence, consensus is expecting sticky #inflation. An upside surprise would obviously exacerbate the bond market selloff by further pricing out rate cuts from 2025-26. Fed Funds futures are currently pricing in one cut in 2025, in July. In our view, if the Fed is unable to find a reason(s) to cut in 1H25, they will not cut at all this year. And nor should they.  Per our GRID Model projections for Real GDP growth and our industry leading empirical deep dive on US business cycle dynamics, the US economy is likely to remain resilient enough to continue questioning the Fed’s current estimate of neutral of 3%, which erroneously implies rates are 150bps in restrictive territory. Per our GRID Model projections for Headline CPI and our industry leading empirical deep dive on US business cycle dynamics, US inflation is unlikely to return durably to trend in the absence of a recession, which implies the highest probability outcome is inflation firming over the medium term against easing base effects.  Late-Q2/early-Q3 is when inflation is likely to accelerate appreciably enough to cause serious problems in asset markets. Coincidentally, that is also when the Treasury will likely be rebuilding the TGA on the other side of the ~650bn of spenddown we currently still project as a function of the Debt Ceiling.  The Treasury is also likely to have shifted net financing policy in a hawkish manner by then, with incoming Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent favoring coupons far more than his bill-happy predecessor Janet Yellen. And all this bond-bearish and dollar-bullish hawkishness is coming amid what is essentially a record peak in global debt refinancing demand in Q3. We struggle to see how global liquidity expands fast enough this year to avoid a global refinancing air pocket — which are causal factors to deep corrections and crashes in risk assets. If a crash occurs this summer (or sooner), we expect the dip will be bought because investors will finally find attractive valuations to bet on the AI super cycle amid tax cuts and deregulation. Brace yourselves for a wild 2025! Please like and repost if you found this note helpful. Thank you! Consistently making money and protecting gains in financial markets requires a lot of time, expertise, and computational power. Investors partner with 42 Macro because we do the heavy lifting and answer the hard questions for them. See for yourself: 42macro.com/42-macro-sampl…. Have a great day! -Skipper

1/ On Living Rent-Free In Your Head People and ideas are ferociously competing to live rent-free in your head. For most people it is worse than that. It is a high school rager with hundreds of people and ideas spilling beer on the sofa of your head. Your job: face control

@Nikola_kingo AMExplorer

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@theholdersbtc To HODL!!

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