@Liathetrader To the buy and hold crowd, what happens next year is irrelevant - that's the whole point behind buy and hold.
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David
1.3K posts
David
@DFinkCFA
No investing advice or guidance. Opinions are my own and should not be relied upon or used by others.
Katılım Mayıs 2011
175 Takip Edilen126 Takipçiler
This buy-and-hold crowd will not do well next year.
I wrote about it in January. People who started investing then, and those starting now, will have a hard time.
We're headed for a big mess. Lost decade? Bear market?
You must trade and be selective. This is a trading environment, not an investing environment.
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The idea is to live the life you want. If that life is less than the range you provided - that's great. It means you probably have flexibility to do some unexpected things (gifts to family, charitable giving, special events, etc.). If the spending is in excess of the range, you might be at risk. Of course, both are a function of life expectancy. If you spend under the range but are going to live another 50 years, it changes the math. If you spend over the range but are only going to live another 10 years, it also changes the math. Either way, it sounds like you are living your best life right now - congrats!
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Our withdrawal rate in retirement is currently ~2.5% of assets.
Studies have shown that safe withdrawal rates can be in the 4%-7% range.
Why are we so low?
Because we really don’t need to pull any more out. We have everything we need and want. We take vacations regularly and our monthly expenses are easily covered.
Also, it’s hard to shake the feeling that I don’t want to run out of money before I run out of life.
The numbers may rise as we age and healthcare needs go up, but right now we’re good with 2.5%.
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@WealthCoachMak When you are talking about psychology, the math is irrelevant.
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If you are financially savvy and don't mind good debt that is CHEAP...
You should never pay off a 2.5% FIXED mortgage early...
Sure...
Pyschologically you might feel better with NO debt
But...
MATH does not agree 💰💵🔥
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This is what courage looks like. 👍
Silence is compliance.
OSINTtechnical@Osinttechnical
Director of the National Counterterrorism Center, Joe Kent, has resigned in protest of the U.S. war on Iran. In his statement: “Iran posed no imminent threat to our nation, and it is clear that we started this war due to pressure from Israel and its powerful American lobby.”
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Your recent tank of gas ⛽️ was how much?
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@FranWalsh73 When the tide is at your back, swimming is easy. Things change when you have to swim into the tide. I'll be interested in seeing the posts when the tide changes.
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Respectfully, this is absolute nonsense.
Show me someone with a 100k portfolio who’s producing $3200/month consistently for decades.
You won’t. It’s a ridiculous claim that grifters use to sell you courses.
Can you make money selling options?
Sure. But this idea that you can just consistently compound at this rate in perpetuity would lead you to be a trillionaire.
I don’t happen to know of any trillionaires using this strategy.
Please show us
Cole Grinde@GrindeOptions
Options for beginners. Make money using shares you already own or cash that is sitting idle in your account. $25,000 portfolio $800/mo $50,000 portfolio $1,600/mo $75,000 portfolio $2,400/mo $100,000 portfolio $3,200/mo $150,000 portfolio $4,800/mo $250,000 portfolio $8,000/mo $350,000 portfolio $11,200/mo $500,000 portfolio $16,000/mo $750,000 portfolio $24,000/mo $1,000,000 portfolio $32,000/mo That’s at .8% per week. You want to sell options on high conviction stocks that are either beaten down (cash secured puts) or have gained quite a lot (covered calls). Some stocks I like to sell options on are: 1. $TSLA 2. $SOFI 3. $IREN 4. $TSLL 5. $HOOD 6. $LMND 7. $NBIS 8. $AMZN 9. $RKLB 10. $ONDS
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@TheArmoTrader @CavinessWealth @AdviserCounsel In the right situation, it can be valuable. In my case, my other designation (CFA) and personal experience carry far more weight than the CFP ever did. I surveyed my clients before I dropped it, and virtually none of them ascribed any value to it.
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Burbank, CA 🇺🇸 English
Just saw the new CFP commercial on ESPN.
The whole pitch is that CFPs have to act in your best interest, but that is basically the same standard for any registered investment adviser.
So why does it “gotta be a CFP?”
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@MarketPalmer_ Level 4..."What's right for you might not be right for me...I'll do me and you do you."
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Level 1: "Paying off your mortgage is good."
Level 2: "Actually, paying off your mortgage is bad."
Level 3: "Paying off your mortgage is good."
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@dividends_guod1 @Smartnetworth1 If he was doing it in a taxable account, seems like he was just increasing his tax bill.
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@Smartnetworth1 @DFinkCFA I read an article can’t find it now but guy was a total return/dividend investor so the dividends kept being reinvested. When he needed money he would then sell some stock if you are getting 200 shares of $MO he would sell 100 shares a year
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The 4% retirement rule is outdated. The new approach is building your cash flow and never having to sell any shares. Live off the cash flow of your portfolio.
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The concept of total return clearly escapes you. Even if you are getting divvies, the odds are that your stock will be down in a severe bear market (your scenario). Your "cash flow" is simply the company forcing you to take the value of your shares. Like it or not, you are doing the same thing as the person selling shares...you just have no control and you may have worse tax implications.
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@DFinkCFA Then the market goes bear for 3 years and you gotta sell shares to get some income. If you have heavy cash flow from the portfolio who knows what the market does
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@DreamDividend 2nd order thinking is clearly difficult for a lot of people.
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As a taxpayer, your thoughts?
NewsWire@NewsWire_US
Treasury Sec. Bessent says 'no price tag would make the Iran war unaffordable'
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In the real world, people don't tend to take inflationary increases each year in the first place. If someone is taking $5k/month from their accounts (for example), they tend to stick with that number until things "feel tight" - which can be years, depending on the rate of inflation and what they are spending on. At that time, they might ask for a bump.
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Hot take: no one has ever run out of money using the 4% Rule. Why? Because, in the real world, people are flexible.
During a market crash, no one is going to increase their spending by inflation because "the rule said so." No, they will cut back and not run out of money as a result.
This flexibility is what makes the 4% Rule even more foolproof than advertised.
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@DreamDividend The liquidity of their holdings doesn't match the liquidity requested by their investors and they have limited ability to obtain ST financing to bridge the gap.
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Why do you think MS and JPM and so many others are restricting withdrawals?
unusual_whales@unusual_whales
Morgan Stanley restricts redemptions at private credit fund after withdrawals surge, per Reuters
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@DreamDividend Goldman's forecast from 15 years ago will finally be right.
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Fill in the blank.
If oil hits $200, then ______________ .
The Dividend Dream on YouTube@DreamDividend
Your guess on the tippy top number for oil in the next 12 months?
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@DreamDividend Yeah, I remember all the videos released by the Biden admin...oh wait.
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@DFinkCFA Good question.
He’s controlled by Isreal.
Being blackmailed due to videos of him raping kids
Hope that helps clarify!
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My gym bro spends $25 a day eating out.
$25 a day
= $750 a month
= $9,000 a year
Invest $9,000 a year at 8% for 25 years?
$657,000.
Daily habits become portfolios.
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