Dion Hinchcliffe

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Dion Hinchcliffe

Dion Hinchcliffe

@dhinchcliffe

Thinker, strategist, enterprise architect, keynote speaker, analyst, book author, futurist on #IT, #CIO, #cloud, #AI. @TheFuturumGroup @SDABocconi

Washington, D.C. Katılım Temmuz 2006
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Dion Hinchcliffe
Dion Hinchcliffe@dhinchcliffe·
1️⃣ Big news today: After two months of deep analysis, @nickpatience and I are releasing @TheFuturumGroup's new Agentic AI Signal. It's a definitive evaluation of the platforms powering the next era of enterprise AI. The space is young, explosive, and moving at lightning speed.
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Dion Hinchcliffe
Dion Hinchcliffe@dhinchcliffe·
8/ My assumptions (terse): • Sustained disruption (6–24 mo) • Partial (not 30% like some say) but persistent Qatar helium loss • No new helium supply step-change • 2–6 mo fab inventories → ~4–6 mo inflection • Helium critical for key etch/cooling steps (no true substitute) • HBM = binding constraint (SK hynix/Samsung concentration) • AI output = min(GPU, HBM) • LNG = secondary (cost/grid pressure, not immediate outage) • Korea/Taiwan have a buffer via nuclear, coal, alt LNG • No demand collapse (AI stays supply-constrained) • Gradual throughput decline, not sudden failure • Limited substitution + partial recycling gains only
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Dion Hinchcliffe
Dion Hinchcliffe@dhinchcliffe·
7/ CIO implications: AI systems get hit twice: GPU supply tightens AND HBM constrains completion. Hedge now: • Lock AI capacity early • Diversify cloud/providers • Prioritize high-ROI workloads • Optimize token efficiency This is no longer just a software scaling problem.
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Dion Hinchcliffe
Dion Hinchcliffe@dhinchcliffe·
1/ Here’s my baseline assessment of what happens to critical AI components if the Iran war continues. It shows a significant double digit decline. Helium, energy, and a narrow set of fab chokepoints. If the disruption persists, the risk isn’t collapse. It’s a steady ramp down.
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Dion Hinchcliffe
Dion Hinchcliffe@dhinchcliffe·
AI spend is directly correlated to significant revenue growth. Perhaps the most interesting chart yet about the era of AI. Companies with little AI spend track the broader economy. Those with high AI intensity are now seeing triple digit revenue growth. Sure to spur debate.
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Chris Petersen
Chris Petersen@CPetersen_CS·
A3) So far, working that into project and product budgets and forecasts. As @nyike said, those forecasts have to stay pretty darn loose since estimation is rough at best. Model churn doesn't help. #ciochat
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Dion Hinchcliffe
Dion Hinchcliffe@dhinchcliffe·
#CIOChat Good chat today. Join us at 2pm ET next Thursday. Topic: Using IT for Growth This is month 12 of our movie tie-ins to intro next week’s topic. Hope you’ve enjoyed them. Please suggest topics and invite your IT colleagues. Every Thursday at 2pm ET.
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Joanne Friedman
Joanne Friedman@joannefriedman·
@dhinchcliffe #CIOChat - use a context graph to allocate by correlated groups. (e.g. marketing and sales, finance and ops)
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Dion Hinchcliffe
Dion Hinchcliffe@dhinchcliffe·
#CIOChat Q4: Endgame: If more IT workloads consume tokens, budgeting shifts from fixed to variable, a major $ issue. How are CIOs adapting financial models like FinOps for AI, chargebacks, or automated guardrails? How do you manage volatility while still enabling innovation?
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Chris Petersen
Chris Petersen@CPetersen_CS·
A2) Prompt discipline / design and model choice more than in-line model routing. Maybe a path to fewer surprises, maybe not. #ciochat
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Joanne Friedman
Joanne Friedman@joannefriedman·
@dhinchcliffe #CIOChat the tip is to really hone in on what needs Frontier models, which model versions, and what can be done with OS models (specific ones) and... look at inferencing.. and ways around it.
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Dion Hinchcliffe
Dion Hinchcliffe@dhinchcliffe·
#CIOChat Q3: As tokens become a shared resource across the org (or maybe hoarded instead), how are you allocating them across teams and roles? Are you setting budgets per product, per developer, per agent? Or letting usage float and then finding ways to reconcile later?
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Joanne Friedman
Joanne Friedman@joannefriedman·
@dhinchcliffe #CIOChat A2: All of the above, but primarily we don't let AI handle everything. Call me luddite but humans still have critical thinking skills and creativity.
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