

The One Big Beautiful Bill Act (signed July 4, 2025) has a net budgetary effect of increasing federal deficits by an estimated $1.8–2.0 trillion over its first four years (FY2026–2029). Per CRFB/CBO scoring: +$500B in 2026 and +$635B in 2027 alone, with elevated costs continuing into 2028–2029 before declining as some offsets phase in. Tax cuts (e.g., TCJA extensions, no tax on tips/overtime) are front-loaded; spending reductions (e.g., Medicaid/SNAP reforms) ramp up later. Total conventional 10-year deficit increase: $3.4T (+$4.1T with interest).





















