Dan Ryan
624 posts

Dan Ryan
@DanRyan007
old dude try to keep on keeping on. and make a few bucks in the market.






This week the big development was the market realizing that oil will take a material amount of time to get fixed. I would not be the least bit surprised if within a week or two we get some form of stimulus announcement from Trump. Midterms beckon.

It strikes me that markets are pricing in more hawkish central bank reaction functions as compared to where central bankers are. I suspect most central bankers are in wait and see mode and will want to see through some of the energy price increase. Unlike 2021, demand is not surging which makes seeing through a defensible strategy. They will likely be more cautious about rate cuts relative to pre-Iran conflict but markets seem to be pricing in much tighter monetary policy.










The FOMC upgrading gdp growth forecast across all forecast horizon will probably ranked as one of the strangest reaction to the Iran War and oil spike.





