Dan | Macro & Liquidity

$BTC still needs that catastrophic stage… Where sentiment breaks and “Bitcoin is dead” returns. That’s where institutions accumulate quietly while retail panic sells. We’re not there yet so keep hoarding cash and be patient.

@KorayChelikhan @portseido Oh nice one, smart system. How you finding day trading at the moment, I’m finding it very volatile believe it or not lol

@Dan_macros @portseido Yes so I do day and swing trading so I have more riskier options there this is just my long term portfolio

This my July portfolio result. These are my long term holdings and I am very happy with the performances this month. Microsoft was my best performer and I am still waiting for them to go up even higher. Thanks to @portseido for providing the performance tracking. If you are interested in using Portseido, click on the link in my bio.

@QT9277 potentially yes! are you set for the leg up?

@Dan_macros Fakeout? More like a setup for the next moonshot.

Have we bottomed? Let's keep it simple. The bull case is becoming much more interesting. If Bitcoin can reclaim the 200-week moving average (yellow line) and follow through with a higher high, then I think there's a strong argument that the recent breakdown was a fakeout. Add in the weekly bullish RSI divergence (one of my favourite reversal signals), and the technical picture improves significantly. If all of those pieces fall into place, I think the bulls have a compelling case. However... The bear case hasn't disappeared. If Bitcoin fails to reclaim the 200-week moving average and instead rolls over to print a lower low, then my focus shifts towards the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement, which sits around $39k That would fit with my broader macro thesis: • Higher Treasury yields. • A stronger US dollar. • Sticky inflation risks. • Ongoing geopolitical tensions. • Carry trade unwind concerns. • Tighter financial conditions. None of those are particularly supportive of speculative assets. One thing that also catches my attention is sentiment. Only a few weeks ago, fear was everywhere. Now I'm seeing more and more people calling for new highs again. Markets have a habit of making the largest number of participants uncomfortable before the next major move. If this cycle is going to produce another significant bull market, history suggests the path there is unlikely to be straightforward. Could that mean one final shakeout? Possibly. Could the recent low already be the bottom? Also possible. That's why I'm not married to one outcome. The next few weekly candles should tell us everything we need to know. Until then, I'm letting the market confirm the direction rather than forcing a narrative. What's your view? Has Bitcoin already bottomed, or do we see one final flush first? #Bitcoin #BTC #Crypto #TechnicalAnalysis #Macro #Investing #Markets #Trading #Altcoins

@AlphaPulseGlobe it was only a matter of time, i have a strong feeling BOJ isnt done yet.

BREAKING: The US just intervened to defend the yen. The first joint US-Japan action to buy yen in nearly 30 years. On Friday, the New York Fed sold euros to buy yen on Treasury's behalf, executed through Goldman Sachs and Morgan Stanley. Notably, they used euro reserves, not dollars, to fund the purchase. It comes after the yen crashed to its weakest level against the dollar since 1986, driven by the massive US-Japan rate gap fueling carry trades. Japan had already spent an estimated $50B+ defending the currency on its own before Washington stepped in. Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent had previously called the yen "undervalued". This is the US putting real money behind that view, in direct coordination with Tokyo.

Weekly Liquidity Check (Week-over-Week) Fed Balance Sheet: $6.747T → $6.738T (-$9.19B) 📉 Bank Reserves: $3.065T → $2.945T (-$120.36B) 📉 TGA: $835.42B → $970.44B (+$135.03B) 📈 RRP: $0.675B → $2.151B (+$1.48B) 📈 SOFR: 3.64% → 3.65% (+1bp) 📈 10Y-2Y: 36bps → 47bps (+11bps) 📈 Treasury aggressively rebuilt its cash balance while bank reserves fell sharply and the Fed balance sheet contracted. Liquidity tightened meaningfully this week. The $135B increase in the TGA pulled cash from the financial system, while reserves declined by over $120B. Funding markets remain orderly, but the underlying liquidity backdrop deteriorated. Weekly Signal: Neutral → Bearish #Liquidity #Markets $SPY $QQQ

@TheUnusualFrog lol I do expect a crash sometime soon though. Too many factors are stacking up.

EVERYTHING STOCK IS GOING TO $0 JUST LISTEN TO TRUMP AND SELL!

@KorayChelikhan that is truly insane

When I see people earning this much from trading every month I am mind-blown. No matter how good you get there will always be a bigger fish in the pond. This should motivate you even more.

$COIN rejected the 50-day SMA almost exactly where I expected. That doesn't change my thesis. If we continue lower, my primary accumulation zone remains the 0.786 Fibonacci retracement. That's where I believe the risk/reward becomes heavily skewed in favour of long-term investors. I'll happily let the market come to me rather than chasing every bounce. Patience isn't missing out. It's waiting for asymmetric opportunities.

@QT9277 It certainly is, like nothing ever happened.

@Dan_macros FOMO's back, baby!

My thoughts over the next few weeks... Yesterday's rally, fuelled by the excitement around Citadel buying Leopold Aschenbrenner's book, is exactly the type of headline that can reignite FOMO after a sharp correction. I wouldn't be surprised to see another powerful rally from here. Many Elliott Wave traders would describe it as a potential Wave B bounce, a move that convinces investors the correction is over before the next leg lower begins. Whether you believe in Elliott Wave or not, history shows that bear markets often produce some of the strongest rallies. That's why I'm approaching the next few weeks with caution. If you decide to add exposure, think carefully about your position sizing. Personally, my focus is on raising cash, protecting capital and building a watchlist rather than chasing every rally. Ironically, I think some of the best opportunities today are outside the AI trade. There are quality businesses that have been sold alongside the broader market despite their fundamentals remaining intact. The reason I'm staying defensive isn't because of one catalyst. It's because I see multiple macro headwinds beginning to converge: • A potential yen carry trade unwind. • Sticky inflation risks, particularly through energy. • Oil prices remaining elevated. • Ongoing geopolitical tensions in the Middle East. • The Fed becoming more hawkish (12–0 to 9–3 at the latest FOMC meeting). • The reverse repo facility already effectively drained. • Bank reserves sitting around the $3 trillion level, a threshold I'm watching closely. • Long-end Treasury yields near post-GFC highs, tightening financial conditions. Together, they paint a far more fragile picture than the one currently being priced by the market. I'd rather miss the first few percent of a rally than ignore the growing list of risks sitting beneath the surface. #Markets #Stocks #QQQ

Bitcoin looks set to test 60k region again.

This USD/JPY trend line may be one of the most important charts in global markets. Japan appears to have intervened again, driving USD/JPY from around ¥163 to below ¥158 — yet the pair has already recovered above ¥160. The real signal comes if this multi-month trend breaks and price fails to reclaim it. That would not just mean a stronger yen. It could force leveraged yen-funded positions to unwind across equities, technology, crypto and global risk assets. ¥155 is the first warning. Below ¥151, the carry trade could become disorderly. ¥140 is where the real destruction begins. Everyone is watching the stock market. I’m watching the currency funding it. #USDJPY #DOLLAR #MARKETS

WARNING: 🚨 Something crazy just happened in Japan. The BOJ has spent ¥8.2 trillion defending the yen. Last time Japan intervened at this scale, global markets lost $7,000,000,000,000 within days. What's next, could be extremely violent.

@cryptorover the forgotten carry unwind.

The next major market correction is being ignored. Let me explain why... For the last two years I've been warning that the biggest crashes don't begin with one event. They happen when multiple risks begin stacking on top of one another. That's exactly what I'm watching today. 1. Treasury yields are surging again. The US 10-year and 30-year Treasury yields are trading around levels not seen since before the Global Financial Crisis. Higher yields mean tighter financial conditions, higher borrowing costs and lower equity valuations. This isn't a bullish backdrop. 2. Bonds are pricing something the stock market isn't. Long-duration bond ETFs like TLT are trading around levels last seen in 2007. Everyone hates bonds. History usually rewards investors willing to buy what nobody wants. 3. Government debt has become a serious problem. US federal debt relative to GDP is around levels not seen since World War II. That debt was manageable when rates were near zero. It's a completely different story when governments are refinancing trillions at 5% yields. Interest expense becomes a problem in itself. 4. Energy is quietly becoming a problem again. Oil has recovered sharply. The Middle East remains unstable. Shipping routes remain under pressure. Energy inflation doesn't stay confined to petrol stations. It feeds into transport, manufacturing, food and almost every part of the economy. 5. Markets are treating war as if it's free. It isn't. Military equipment. Missiles. Air defence systems. Rebuilding inventories. Foreign aid. All of it has to be funded. Eventually governments either issue more debt, cut spending elsewhere or raise taxes. There is no fourth option. 6. The carry trade still worries me. For years, investors borrowed cheaply in Japan and invested in higher-yielding assets around the world. As Japanese interest rates rise and the yen strengthens, those trades become less attractive. If leveraged investors are forced to unwind positions, it can trigger selling across equities, credit and other risk assets - not because the underlying businesses changed overnight, but because leverage has to come out of the system. We've already had a reminder of how quickly this can happen. 7. The consumer is far weaker than equity markets suggest. Confidence remains depressed. Borrowing is slowing. Households are still dealing with years of elevated prices. Meanwhile, stock markets continue behaving as though the economy is firing on all cylinders. That disconnect rarely lasts forever. I'm not saying the market crashes tomorrow. I'm saying the number of macro risks is growing, not shrinking. Higher yields. Record debt. Energy inflation. Geopolitical tensions. Carry trade risks. Weak consumers. Complacent equity markets. Individually, each is manageable. Together, they deserve far more attention than they're getting.

Crazy scenes

Hats off to $AMZN They’ve smashed that one!

You’ve misunderstood the bear case. The argument isn’t that AI is wrong, useless, or that these companies are stupid. Railways and the internet transformed the world. Housing is essential. All still produced enormous bubbles and market crashes. Why? Because a great technology can still attract too much capital, too quickly, at valuations that assume flawless execution and immediate returns. The risk isn’t that AI fails, the risk is hundreds of billions being spent simultaneously, leverage and speculation building around that spending, returns taking longer than expected, and all of it happening while financial conditions are tight and consumers are already under pressure.

Let me get this straight The bears think $MSFT $GOOGL $META $AMZN some of the greatest companies ever built are all simultaneously spending hundreds of billions on AI capex And they’re all wrong? All of them? At the same time? Ok 🤣

@MitchMartan98 He has also been very early on this one too. Would say these are the times to take profits off the table, not to be adding now.

Burry thinks this is a deadcat and that were at the start of a bear market, reminder he was very early before 2008. $SPY $QQQ