Precise Market Analysis.

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Precise Market Analysis.

Precise Market Analysis.

@Daniel43454291

Katılım Nisan 2020
35 Takip Edilen36 Takipçiler
Ray Myers
Ray Myers@TheRayMyers·
I don't believe that OpenAI, Anthropic, and SpaceX will IPO at these crazy $2T valuations we hear now. These valuations will come down as soon as S1's get published. Let's recall how in 2019, WeWork tried to IPO at a $50B valuation, but it failed miserably when S1 became public. In 2018, WeWork lost $1.9B, and they tried to make themselves look better with that "Community Adjusted EBITDA" nonsense. These ARR and EBITDA numbers we hear publicly are surely "Adjusted". And some of those "Adjustments" might be as dumb as the "Community EBITDA" Neumann came up with at WeWork. In S1, they will be forced to reveal all the cockroaches and most likely: - Revenues are lower than most think - Expenses are higher - Balance sheet is worse I expect these valuations to come down quite a bit, but they will nevertheless be the largest IPOs ever.
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Ray Myers
Ray Myers@TheRayMyers·
$DLO: Take-Rate 2.79% 📉 0.93% -66% EPS $0.06 📈 $0.66 +1,000 Keep crying about the falling take rate and ignore the real economics underneath! I will pick your shares. Thank you for your attention to this matter!
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Ray Myers
Ray Myers@TheRayMyers·
$NU customer count grew by 14% Y/Y and 3.2% Q/Q to 136.2M, an increase of 4.2M over Q4 2025! In the below graph you can see how the growth has decreased significantly in the 2 years, this is understandable. You can’t grow customers at 30% per year once you already have over 130M customers. However, interestingly, the growth rate has plateaued in the last few quarters and appears not to be decreasing as fast as some expected. Simply put, Nu continues to acquire new customers, as the total addressable market is vast. Moreover, 83% of these customers are monthly active customers, the same as last year. In fact, the activity rate has remained unchanged for 4 years, which is remarkable given the rapid growth. One could expect a slight decrease in activity rate after expanding into two new countries and adding tens of millions of new customers, but we are not seeing that.
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Ray Myers
Ray Myers@TheRayMyers·
$DLO Gross Profit Take Rate Continues Falling: - 1.05% Q1 2025 - 0.88% Q4 2025 - 0.84% Q1 2026 As we can see in the graph below, there is a clear downtrend of falling take rates, with the take rate more than halving in 4 years. Every quarter, the street panics over the take rate, and this quarter is a perfect example. The thought process is very simple: If $DLO keeps less money for itself from every dollar it processes, its growth suffers. However, this is a very simplistic thinking that ignores all other factors that also drive earnings growth. Essentially, 3 factors largely determine a take rate, and each of them might have a larger effect in a particular quarter. First, the financial terms under which the company has agreed to process payments for a merchant. A large customer renegotiating financial terms could have an outsized impact on the take rate. Second, transaction processing costs. Dlocal operates a payment aggregator business where it handles the front-facing relationship with a merchant, whilst it integrates services from other payment acquirers, merchant banks, FX services, and more. Sometimes they earn higher FX fees, allowing the take rate to increase, whilst at other times the company incurs higher processing costs, reducing the take rate. Third, payment volume mix shift. Fewer credit cards, more local payment methods, fewer pay-ins, more pay-outs. Dlocal simplifies the payout processes for e-commerce, ride-hailing, and travel companies. However, these transactions are less complex and usually happen in batches, thus Dlocal charges lower fees to merchants for handling them. The bigger picture is that payment volumes are growing incredibly quickly across verticals and geographies! Dlocal might keep a smaller share of each dollar processed because of the nature of and economics of these money flows changes, but that doesn’t matter, as each dollar they process is still quite profitable.
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Ray Myers
Ray Myers@TheRayMyers·
7️⃣ Undervalued, High-Quality, Fallen Angels 1. Mercado Libre Ticker: $MELI Drawdown: 41% Country: Argentina Industry: E-Commerce, Fintech, Logistics Market Cap: $78B EBITDA Margin: 13.9% ROIC: 7.6% FWD P/E: 39 2028 Revenue CAGR: 25.7% 2028 EPS CAGR: 34.8%
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Ray Myers
Ray Myers@TheRayMyers·
is $CELH, the next $MNST? - 354% Growth in Revenue - Improving Margins - 76% 2028 EPS CAGR - 44% Below Consensus Price Target
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