Dan Alpert

"Whenever I despair, I remember that the way of truth and love has always won. There may be tyrants and murderers, and for a time, they may seem invincible, but in the end, they ALWAYS fail. Think of it: ALWAYS". -- Mahatma Gandhi

Unfortunately, what would have been the lead story on October 20th was preempted by an even bigger bomb that was dropped on the US! Hoping this confluence of history does not repeat itself this year...

On October 19, 1987 the US slammed back at Iran for firing at shipping in the Persian Gulf. We've been at this for 40+ years, nothing much changes...>>>

Russia assisting Iran is different than the US helping Ukraine. The US would never give Ukraine extraterritorial targeting intel on the location of Russian targets outside Ukraine. Russia is providing Iran with intel on where US forces are outside of Iran! wsj.com/world/russia-i…

Too soon to tell if today's Employment Situation breakthrough to net losses is a meaningful acceleration of a slump or just a continuing soft patch. Either way, however, it will lead to more accomodative monetary policy in my view. Bond market, however, is not reacting much yet.

The unemployment rate held steady-ish at 4.4%, up a tenth. But February was the re-basing month for the Household Survey, and it showed a net loss of -185,000 in the number of people employed. The adjustments make that a foggier datapoint.

Well, there you have it. The first big crack in the employment armor of the US economy, since the pandemic era. Non-farm payrolls fall by 92,000 jobs (86,000 in the private sector). More>>

Big squawking canary in the coalmine! You can bet your 401k that the US faces a retirement crisis within 10 years: wsj.com/personal-finan…

Hmmm? #Trumpatine

This is likely the effect of the remaining cheaper pre-tariff inventory passing through to end buyers at post-tariff prices, and it will be an extremely volatile data point going forward as the tariff shenanigans are sorted out. Goods prices, meanwhile, show softness.

The 0.8% explosion in PPI services was the result of a 2.5% M/M advance in Trade Services and a 1.0% advance in Transportation and Warehousing. Trade services measure the changes in margins received by wholesalers and retailers. >>>

#PPI rose 2.9 percent for the 12 months ended January 2026. The January increase in prices for final demand can be traced to a 0.8-percent advance in the index for final demand services. In contrast, prices for final demand goods declined 0.3 percent.>>>

Please watch "Rise!" An exhortation for sanity and coming together during these horrific time. By my first cousin, a gifted musician. youtu.be/1hKTRPTQKpU?si… Comments welcome, supportive or otherwise.

I invite you to read my treatise on #AffordableHousing #Finance for @CornellLaw. Using the private capital markets to leverage public policy goals and address the #HousingCrisis. papers.ssrn.com/sol3/papers.cf… #LIHTC #ABS #MultifamilyHousing #TaxCredits #Section42 @HousingOnline

@MerkinPnnrCtr needs your support on a 5,800-mile cross country solo E-bike tour from West Palm Beach, FL to Los Angeles, CA to raise awareness for Peripheral Neuropathy and fund neuropathy research. Visit ebiketour.org for details. Follow on Instagram @merkinbiketour.

This is an adjustment of -69% of the jobs we thought were formed in 2025, and the BLS now says was off. Revised from +584,000 to +181,000.

Today's delayed January jobs report with its substantial NFP beat is donimated by two things: (i) The 123,500 jobs created in the relatively low wage/low hours healthcare and social assistance sector, and (ii) the rebenchmarking of 2025 data: 403,000 jobs disappear!...>>