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mgjd
20.1K posts
mgjd
@DannEquity
🇦🇷🇻🇪🇬🇧 La vida es una tómbola 🍃 perfil de opiniones incongruentes
Hong Kong Katılım Ekim 2009
990 Takip Edilen451 Takipçiler
mgjd retweetledi
No… esto no es solo una victoria.
Esto es historia viva… y estuve dentro de ella, probablemente un momento irrepetible
Ustedes no tienen la más mínima idea (LMPI) de lo que esto significa para mí…
No es solo un campeonato. No es solo una transmisión más.
Son 37 años persiguiendo momentos como este…
esperando una noche donde la historia, el país y mi voz se encontraran en el mismo punto.
Hoy no participé de alguna manera en un juego…
Fui testigo del sueño de un país haciéndose realidad.
Ver a Venezuela campeón del Clásico Mundial desde este lugar…
no es la cima de mi carrera.
Es el momento que le da sentido a todo el camino.
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🚨💣 | JUST IN: Rio Ferdinand on the Vinícius Júnior racism allegations:
🗣️“Vini is the one to blame here. If someone calls me a black monkey, I’ll call them a white pig. No one has the autonomy of madness.”
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Llevo 4 partidos sin putear a Dalot, me siento extraño 😭
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They spent all week trying to tell us they'd beat 2008 Manchester United and couldn't even beat 2026 Manchester United. 😭
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That is why we Venezuelans are happy about it: because the debt assumed is not ours; it belongs to a narco-regime and all the actors who did business with them. Now, everyone is paying the price.
Everyone gets fucked.
Awesome 🇻🇪
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86
The Venezuela story everyone missed. The U.S. just sold $500 million of Venezuelan oil. But they deposited the money in Qatar. Not the U.S. Not Venezuela. Qatar. Here is why that satisfies detail changes everything you think you know about what just happened. Venezuela owes $170 billion to international creditors. Bondholders. Oil companies. China. Everyone is owed money. Any account in the U.S. or Venezuela would be immediately seized through litigation. So the Trump administration parked the money in Qatar. A “neutral venue” where funds flow freely with U.S. approval and without risk of seizure. This is not liberation. This is not regime change. This is not intervention. This is the first operational deployment of a new architecture for sovereign resource capture. The sequence: - January 3: Capture the president - January 6: Announce U.S. will “run” oil sector indefinitely - January 9: Sign Executive Order shielding revenues from all creditors - January 14: Complete first $500 million sale Twelve days from military operation to revenue capture. Iraq took six years to sign its first major oil contracts after 2003. Foreign companies operated under Iraqi law. Revenues went to Iraqi accounts. Venezuela 2026: The U.S. government directly markets the oil, completes the sales, and deposits proceeds in accounts it controls in third countries. This has never happened before. Never! Yup! Not in Iraq. Not in Libya. Not in Kuwait. Not anywhere since 1945. The Executive Order is the key document. It declares that Venezuelan oil revenues are exempt from all creditor claims, all legal judgments, all international arbitration. With one signature, $170 billion in legal obligations became unenforceable. The international legal architecture built over 80 years was bypassed through a domestic Executive Order and an account in Doha. ExxonMobil’s CEO called Venezuela “uninvestible” at the White House meeting last week. He is correct. And it does not matter. When the U.S. government controls the revenue stream, shields it from courts, and promises to “make it real easy,” the old investment calculus is obsolete. The template is now operational: - Designate government as narcoterrorist. - Deploy military to capture leadership. - Install cooperative interim authority. - Issue Executive Order voiding all prior obligations. - Sell resources through U.S.-controlled channels. - Deposit proceeds in jurisdictions beyond legal reach. Any nation with vast natural resources, a government whose legitimacy can be contested, and insufficient military deterrence just watched this template execute in real time. Venezuela has 303+ billion barrels of proven reserves. The largest on Earth. The U.S. now controls the revenue stream. This is not a story about Trump or Maduro or intervention ethics. This is the birth of a new imperial architecture that renders the post-Westphalian legal order irrelevant through financial engineering and offshore banking. The 21st century will not be shaped by international law. It will be shaped by whoever controls the accounts. Read the full article - open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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Venezuela: The $60B+ Bitcoin "Shadow Reserve"
Markets focus on the $17T+ in Oil that Venezuela owns.
But what they don't know is that Venezuela one of the largest active $BTC holders in the world.
Similar in scale to both $MSTR and Blackrock.
Here's how this impacts markets and prices:
Intelligence reports indicate that the Venezuelan regime accumulated a "shadow reserve" of Bitcoin (BTC) and Tether (USDT) estimated at more than $60 billion. (HUMINT)
his hoard was built through "gold swaps" and the requirement that oil exports be settled in USDT to evade sanctions.
Intelligence cited by Whale Hunting (authored by Bradley Hope and Clara Preve) indicates that the accumulation began in 2018, coinciding with the aggressive liquidation of the Orinoco Mining Arc’s gold reserves.
- The regime likely converted ~$2B of gold proceeds into Bitcoin at an average price of $5K, which would have been around 400,000 BTC. At Jan 2026 price of ~$90K, that specific tranche alone would be worth $36B.
As the "Petro" experiment failed, the regime pivoted to using Tether (USDT) as a proxy for the petrodollar during cruide oil sales. However, Venezuela began to "Wash" that into Bitcoin, recognizing that USDT retains the ability to freeze addresses.
Given market intelligence, we can estimate that Venezuela has roughly:
Gold Swaps: 2018–2020, Gold Bars, Value Now: ~$45B - $50B
Petro-Crypto: 2023–2025, Crude Oil, Value Now: ~$10B - $15B
Mining Seizures: 2023–2024, ~$500M
Giving a grand total between 2018–2026: ~$56B - $67B in Bitcoin, implied at 660K+ Bitcoin, with a floor at 600K in Bitcoin.
That does not mean US has full control of the Bitcoin yet. The days following today will be defined by a high-stakes interrogation to secure the Bitcoin.
The U.S. will likely offer plea deals, reduced sentencing, or protection for family members in exchange for the surrender of seed phrases. Given the severity of the narco-terrorism charges, the leverage is there.
So now the revelation of the $60 billion hoard fundamentally alters the supply/demand dynamics of the Bitcoin market for 2026, as the Venezuelan reserve is estimated at: 600,000+ BTC.
This is 12 times larger than the German sale and 2 times larger than the U.S. government’s entire pre-raid stockpile.
In 2024, the German state of Saxony liquidated ~50,000 BTC ($3 billion). This 50K BTC sale caused a 15-20% market correction and weeks of bearish sentiment.
Now compare that to 600,000.
Here's the leading entity holders of Bitcoin:
1. Satoshi Nakamoto ~1,100,000
2. BlackRock (IBIT) ~770,791.5
3. MicroStrategy ~672,497
4. Venezuela (Seized) ~600,000
5. U.S. Gov ~325,293
6. Mt. Gox Trustee ~140,000
Now, here's what will likely happen from here:
The "Frozen Asset" (High Probability):
The assets are seized but immediately entangled in complex litigation Creditors file injunctions; the DOJ claims forfeiture. The keys are held in escrow by the U.S. Treasury, but the coins cannot move.
Short-term volatility due to uncertainty, followed by a bullish "supply shock" narrative.
Short-term volatility due to uncertainty, followed by a bullish "supply shock" narrative. The market realizes that 600,000 BTC (3% of circulating supply) have been effectively removed from the market for 5-10 years. This acts as a massive "lock-up," reducing liquid supply and supporting higher prices.
The "Strategic Reserve" Pivot (High Probability):
Influenced by the "Strategic Bitcoin Reserve" movement, President Trump orders the Treasury to hold the Bitcoin as a permanent U.S. asset.
This too acts as a massive lock up, reducing liquid supply and supporting higher prices.
The "Fire Sale" (Very Low Probability):
The U.S. DOJ declares the assets "perishable/volatile" and executes an immediate liquidation via Coinbase Prime or USMS auctions to fund the occupation costs.
However, this is unlikely due to Trump's positive stance toward Bitcoin "Reserves" from confiscating assets.
_
Results:
Markets have been looking at the massive oil reserve and beneficiaries, while ignoring the elephant in the room: Bitcoin.
The "second order effect" is likely a massive supply lock-up.
If the U.S. seizes these assets, they will likely move from "active liquid reserves" of a rogue state to "frozen sovereign assets" of the U.S. Treasury, reducing available supply and potentially acting as a catalyst for higher prices in Q1 2026.
There will likely be increased volatility. But for market participants shorting Bitcoin because of fears of "conflict", this event is generally seen as bullish for $MSTR and Bitcoin holders as this effectively locks up supply for many years to come.
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