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@DannyT1502

@polymarkettrade quant

Katılım Kasım 2021
770 Takip Edilen2.4K Takipçiler
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DT
DT@DannyT1502·
Okay time to dilute a bit of my edge and what i'm doing as a Polymarket user. My aim in @Polymarket is to; a) find inefficiencies or take +ev bets b) increase my metrics in what I consider Polymarket may value; ➖volume ➖pnl (both metrics on leaderboard) ➖social presence ➖being on the top holder count at resolution (unlikely this means anything but could be valued) ➖rewards from being a market maker Quite a lot of people are still reluctant on using Polymarket, which should be a good thing, if it were easy there would be less edge. If you find any of this helpful feel free to like or ask questions. Let's break through some strategies; 🧵
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DT@DannyT1502·
@decenterghost What is this shit slop, how is it frozen? The depth in the orderbooks for the world cup is actually very good and he can exit easily on all that are above 0.1c e.g Sweden, Czech , Senegal etc
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ghøst
ghøst@decenterghost·
About $13,000 frozen in positions he cannot exit on Polymarket That is the part nobody tweeted about. Not a magician. Just a split mechanic and a liquidity problem >> Haiti -$2,582 (-97%) >> Panama -$2,288 (-97%) >> Saudi Arabia -$1,704 (-97%) >> Qatar -$1,295 (-97%) >> Czechia -$1,121 (-85%) >> Sweden -$822 (-67%) >> Senegal -$823 (-61%) >> Turkey -$601 (-61%) >> Ecuador -$542 (-55%) >> Croatia -$470 (-49%) >> Uruguay -$437 (-37%) >> Mexico -$355 (-37%) Most of these are write-offs. Thin liquidity on some. Zero bids on others. Getting back to 1.7c is not a trade. It is a prayer Nobody showed you the rest of the portfolio
ghøst@decenterghost

$50K in. $100K out. And a portfolio he cannot exit Here is what actually happened Polymarket lets you split collateral into the full outcome basket automatically One transaction Buy France NO and you get YES on every team at the same average cost. He got Spain, Brazil,

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DT@DannyT1502·
@Euanker Fairs saw another angle which showed it more clearly but still, they aren't gonna go to slow-mo var style to deny a record, especially after the interviews congratulating him etc
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Euan
Euan@Euanker·
Irrefutable video proof Dorgu's goal actually went in off the keeper, therefore Bruno shouldn't have received an assist...
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DT@DannyT1502·
@Doonhamer_ Larping like this should be treated the same as ai slop
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Doonhamer@Doonhamer_·
our favourite larper is back everyone
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awestin.eth
awestin.eth@austiinxbt·
Made a clean 25x predicting England's World Cup squad $20 -> $500 ✅ Thanks for leaving your best leftback at home Tuchel lol
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DT@DannyT1502·
@JacobsBen You picked fuckin Quansah for what 😂😭
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Ben Jacobs
Ben Jacobs@JacobsBen·
🗣️ Thomas Tuchel admits he was "surprised" by Harry Maguire's statement following his omission from England's World Cup squad. "I was a bit surprised, but I respect his personality a lot, I respect his quality a lot. "He had a quality season, I can understand the disappointment, I can see the reason behind the disappointment. "Still I was a bit surprised as we had a private conversation. He had the chance to express his feelings, which he did. "This is fair enough because I can see all the reasons why he could be in the squad. "But the decision is that we stood firmly with out central defenders that carried us through September, October, November. "Some of them are part of a leadership group that took ownership and set the standards high... and it was a decision for these 26 players, even if it feels as it's against these players."
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The Greek Trader
The Greek Trader@TheGreekTrader·
New big hint on the $POLY airdrop formula just dropped from Polymarket. We already knew trading volume would be one of the criteria and now we have a much clearer idea of how it may be calculated: wV = Trade Size × (1 − Entry Price) × Category Weight The key part here is the Entry Price. A lot of people farmed millions in volume by buying shares at 99% or 99.9%, so this is really bad news for bonders. Most of that volume will end up having barely any weight.
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DT@DannyT1502·
Rip to the bros that bought Lewis Hall to make the England squad 😂 #O0CN1KS" target="_blank" rel="nofollow noopener">polymarket.com/event/2026-fif…
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DT@DannyT1502·
@FabrizioRomano Tuchel has had a mare, left him out for who? Dan Burn? 😭
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Fabrizio Romano
Fabrizio Romano@FabrizioRomano·
🚨 BREAKING: Harry Maguire has been left OUT of the World Cup by Thomas Tuchel. “I am SHOCKED”. ⚠️ “I was confident I could have played a major part this summer for my country after the season I’ve had”. “I’ve been left gutted by the decision. I wish the players all the best”, told @talksport @JacobsBen.
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𝙆𝙖𝙮™️
𝙆𝙖𝙮™️@KayLFC05_·
@JacobsBen @alex_crook One of the best decisions an England manager has made in recent history - Guehi - Stones - Konsa - Colwill - Gomez Is solid enough.
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Ben Jacobs
Ben Jacobs@JacobsBen·
🚨 Exclusive: Harry Maguire excluded from the England squad. Understand Maguire shocked not to make selection. 🤝 @alex_crook
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DT
DT@DannyT1502·
@Doonhamer_ @Polymarket Negativity gets good social media engagement for them, they are probably hoping they get a decent airdrop from it
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Doonhamer@Doonhamer_·
idk why but there is a lot of unjust negativity within the @Polymarket community clowning the platform + team + tech constantly. yes, the team got complacent for a short while, but imo they are now more locked in than ever and i for one am seeing a lot of daily improvements. the future is blue. are you happy with the actions of @Polymarket team his month?
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DT@DannyT1502·
@rb_tweets Precisely one year, what do they know???
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rb (prediction arc)
rb (prediction arc)@rb_tweets·
BREAKING: Polymarket to IPO on May 21 according to tradingview
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DT@DannyT1502·
@Mattwhu Great tweet 😂
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Matt Groombridge
Matt Groombridge@Mattwhu·
I’m gonna go Evertons training ground this week dressed as a spurs scout 😂🕵️‍♂️🥷🥸🔎
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DT@DannyT1502·
@Nik_Poly Saw u in the books lol, ggs
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DT@DannyT1502·
@notbrokennn Nice 50-50, 0-0 score was also a great one but i missed it doing another bet
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DT@DannyT1502·
@Makenz999 Yeh looks like it lol, kinda nuts how short notice everything is
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MANNY
MANNY@Makenz999·
@DannyT1502 There is no appealing. They are out!
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DT
DT@DannyT1502·
@CSP_Trading I don't disagree with it, it sucks for market makers that probably hedge with exchanges and got raped but that's part of the game
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Keşfet

@decenterghost @Euanker @Doonhamer_ @austiinxbt @Polymarket @JacobsBen @0xd1namit @TheGreekTrader