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$AMPX | Powering Drones to Pierce the Heavens Been researching @AmpriusInc, and I'm scaling my exposure to 35% of my portfolio. The drone race will be won by $AVAV, $ONDS, or $KTOS, but the battery provider that powers them will be $AMPX. Q3 2025 numbers: - $1.2B MC - $21M revenue - Triple-digit YoY growth - Gross margins flipped positive at 15% (targeting 30%), - OPEX at 37% of rev (aiming for 10%) - -$2M EBITDA but backed by $73M cash and low burn rate. - ~20M shares out, efficient collections (92 DSO), and at-the-market issuance flexibility. Tech edge: Silicon anodes hitting up to 500 Wh/kg energy density — double what graphite-based cells do (250-300 Wh/kg). SiMaxx uses nanowire structures to handle swelling for high-end/niche apps, while SiCore (2024 launch) is built for scale on existing lines. Fast charging (0-80% in <6 min), dramatically extended drone ranges, better payload/endurance for eVTOL, defense, light EVs, wearables, and even humanoid robotics. A huge plus is their silicon anode batteries last about 2x longer than conventional cells. Good for people who like to 'monitor the situation.' Supply Chain: SiMaxx in Fremont, CA; SiCore anodes from spun-off China entity; cells in Korea (tariff dodge); QA back in US. Aviation drives ~75% revenue, plus defense/light EVs. A huge plus imo is that they decided to go fabless in 2022. That materially derisks them relative to their competition. Deals: Partnership with Nanotech Energy announced as of Feb/3. First U.S.-based manufacturing partner which makes Amprius compliant with defense, aerospace, and other mission-critical market needs. Amprius & Nanotech are developing the SA128 silicon-anode cell. Cell specifications include: Format: 21700 cylindrical Capacity: 6.8 Ah Energy density: 320 Wh/kg Not the theoretical max energy density reported from SiMaxx but close to SiCore tech specs. Differentiation: Proven tech + fabless efficiency positions them as the "picks and shovels" anode play in a $100B+ battery market (drone/eVTOL TAM ~$8-10B by 2030). Competitors are Enovix, QuantumScape (no rev yet), or CATL/BYD (mass scale but less edge in high-density niches). Risks: - Customer concentration (35% from one) - Geo exposure (China ties amid tensions) - Unproven at massive scale - Competitor with $ENVX (very bad execution) - High beta But cash buffer + IP moat offers resilience. Valuation outlook: Easily $4B MC by 2027, so a 2x from here. To 2028, P/S-based models (7.7 avg 12-mo or 11 shorter-term) project 70-133% upside (base ~70%, ranges -21% to +200% depending on growth assumptions). Longer-term 2030 scenarios eye 6x potential if they capture even conservative market share with strong margins. Trade setup: Macro + price action are bearish. If $AMPX hits high $8s/low $9s, I'll position on Jan/2027 leaps up to 35% of my port.

📰 Amprius was featured in Manufacturing Dive! The article highlights our role in strengthening the domestic #battery supply chain for #drones and how NDAA-compliant battery sourcing is becoming a critical priority. Read more below: manufacturingdive.com/news/amprius-t… $AMPX #tech