Arbor Data Science

Quality of labor has been a top concern for small businesses. The most recent reading in April 2026 suggested that it was the biggest issue that small businesses faced, with 18% of firms citing it as their main challenge.

The $1.5 trillion budget proposal submitted by the Pentagon for FY 2027 includes $76.96 billion on the procurement of missiles and missile defense systems. This would nearly triple the planned spending of $27.22 billion in FY 2026 for missiles and missile defense systems.

65.90% of the Fed’s total assets were U.S. Treasuries on 4/22/2026. This was the highest level since 3/26/2008, when Treasuries comprised 68.49% of the total balance sheet.

The Federal Reserve Bank of New York found that 66.3% of workers earning over $200,000 had used AI tools at work in the past 12 months as of November 2025. For comparison, only 15.9% of workers who were earning less than $50,000 had used AI tools at work over the same time frame.

According to a survey from PYMNTS, 40.4% of consumers were living paycheck-to-paycheck at the end of 2025

As of 4/10/2026, the average individual income tax refund was $3,397, up from the average refund of $3,055 in 2025. However, after adjusting for inflation, the average refund for each of the last eight years was below 2018 in real terms.

Defense stocks were down 10-20% in the first 30 trading days since Operation Epic Fury began (3/2/26 – 4/14/26). Every other conflict saw defense names rally within the first few months. @pinkhasov - Research consultant for Arbor Data Science

Google Search Trends shows a tight relationship between state-level searches for "free credit check" and "buy now pay later." The upper-right cluster of states may illustrate where household balance sheets are under the most pressure.

Higher health care costs continue to weigh on consumers’ financial health. In a poll conducted by KFF, consumers were most worried about affording health care, with 32% of respondents “Very worried” and 34% “Somewhat worried.”

Diesel hit $5.40/gal in March 2026 — the highest since October 2022, when it averaged $5.32. Back then, NFIB small business optimism was 91.30. Optimism was 98.80 in February 2026. Will small businesses stay positive when faced with rising energy costs?

On average, passenger cars in the U.S. are now 14.5 years old, light trucks are 11.9 years old, and the total fleet is 12.8 years old. Every single category has trended higher for 30 straight years with no sign of reversal. @pinkhasov - Research consultant for Arbor Data Science

Average U.S. consumer inflation expectations for the next 12 months increased to 6.20% in March 2026, according to The Conference Board’s Consumer Confidence Survey.

According to Redfin, there were 630,000 more sellers than homebuyers in February 2026. This was up from 449,409 more sellers than buyers in February 2025.

The worldwide Google Search Interest for the price of oil hit 100, which is the maximum level for the index, in the month of March 2026. This may indicate that individuals around the world are currently tracking how war in the Middle East may impact their day-to-day lives.

The U.S. is planning to release 172 million barrels from the U.S. strategic petroleum oil reserves to help tame crude and fuel prices from climbing higher. As of March 06, 2026, the strategic petroleum reserves have recovered to 415.4 million barrels.

A total of 13.55 million metric tons of Urea fertilizer was exported through the Strait of Hormuz in 2024.

Approximately one-third of global fertilizer flows through the Strait of Hormuz. Methanol and Crude were other large commodities that flow through the strait.

As US farmers continue to face economic pressures, urbanization and now the build-out of data centers competing for land, the number of farms has continued to decline. According to the USDA, the US lost 15,000 farms in 2025. Total number of farms has declined 8% since 2018.

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In November 2025, the percentage of median household income needed to buy a median priced home was 43%. The percentage of median household income has remained above the affordability threshold (30%) for 55 months since April 2021 at 30%.