data golf

The live blog is rolling this morning at Shinnecock. Will is out watching the theatre on 7, while Miles has headed over to 16-17 to watch groups come through. Follow along here: datagolf.com/live-blog/us-o…

@JJ_Slice Part of it is that Koivun is probably going to play every week he can, potentially twice against weak fields where he might be favoured to win. BK we only have projected to play 4-4.5 times (a guess), and he still has to earn ~200 points.

@DataGolf 12% chance with zero points and about 7 weeks to go, isn’t that crazy? As Koepka just double that while he’s on the cutline. Curious to explanation as it feels like Koivun has a non-zero, well, even quite big, possibility of winning

We've added Jackson Koivun and Ben James to our season-long FEC projections: 12% and 8% chances, respectively, of advancing to the playoffs. Brooks is in trouble at No. 73 in the FEC, and just a 24% chance of making the top 70.

~590 points is still holding strong as our projected T70 points cutoff. full projections: datagolf.com/tours/pga-tour…

The last table was missing some players... Here's the updated 2026 DG Points list after the U.S. Open:

Career DG Points after second major victory. Wyndham has the 5th-lowest total, and the 3rd-lowest points per start, above only John Daly and Angel Cabrera.

@pgt278 He had 13 PGAT wins (including a Players) before he won his second PGA.

@DataGolf Thomas seems way too high in this list

@AlexClare99 @NoLayingUp 11 of top 21 from Early-Late.

@AlexClare99 @NoLayingUp Late-early wave is slightly better, but not much. It played really easy early this afternoon. After the morning wave today, I thought we were heading for a ~2-stroke cumulative split, but we got some really easy hours in the early afternoon.

Right now, it's looking like a little less than a half shot discrepancy between the two waves, with the late/early guys having the advantage. Both afternoons have played easier than the mornings, but yesterday evening is making up pretty much all of the difference.

@Brewsky_1 It's the historical average at Shinnecock. We wanted to highlight which holes are playing difficult relative to how they normally play.

@DataGolf Why is this chart prioritized vs historical data? Golf is so different. It should be by score avg?

Good summary of what's going on at Shinnecock today:

@Ozzthepowerful No, it will be lower. It's only top 60 (in a field of 156) and the amateurs and qualifiers skew the average a bit. In 2004 it was a +5 cut and scoring average was +6.3 for R1&R2. (datagolf.com/past-results/m…)

@DataGolf Right, so if scoring average is projected +6.2 wouldn't that put the cutline closer to that number? Might just be me being thick 🤣

@Ozzthepowerful It's not a bug, no. Maybe you disagree on projected scoring averages. Model currently has +3.9 for today, and +2.3 tomorrow. It's also T60 and ties this week.

@DataGolf I think the cut line prediction is messed up. It seems to be using today's numbers only for the prediction. No way the cut ends up near +3, no?

@AssemblyNeil No, 7 or 8 would require a +5 scoring average or so both days. Won't be getting that, I don't think. It's top 60 and ties this week.

@DataGolf There's no way +4 is the most likely cut. Has to be +7 or +8, no?

follow along: datagolf.com/live-blog/us-o…

Here are the round scoring averages at Shinnecock in the three previous U.S. Opens along with wind speed/direction. Scoring average today is currently sitting at just under +5. Wind is from the SE but shifting to SW as the day progresses.

full post here: datagolf.com/live-blog/us-o…

Really interesting post from Miles in the live blog on wind direction and difficulty at Shinnecock (at the round and hole level):

@Brian27843245 We have Annika's peak as +4.73 relative to our baseline player (~130th in the world), whereas Tiger's peak was just +3.9. But as I said, these aren't fair comparisions.

@Brian27843245 The women's game has gotten a lot deeper since 2000. Not really useful to compare Annika's performance rel. to average LPGA player versus Korda's, for example. There was much more separation at the top in 2000. More details here: datagolf.com/introducing-wo…

Here is one way to visualize Annika's dominance versus Tiger's: