Dave Shull

Anthropic just released the most IMPORTANT chart in the AI labor debate. This comes from the company that builds Claude using data from 2 million real conversations. Here’s what it shows. The blue area is every task AI could theoretically do right now. The red area is what people are actually using it for. The gap between them is enormous and that gap is your career runway. Computer programmers are already 75% covered. Customer service reps, data entry workers, financial analysts, they’re next. But here’s what no one is talking about. The mass layoffs haven’t really started. Unemployment for exposed workers hasn’t budged. So what’s actually happening? Companies are closing the front door, hiring for workers aged 22 to 25 in AI exposed jobs has dropped 14%. The most exposed workers aren’t factory workers, they’re college educated, higher earning. 49% of US jobs now have at least a quarter of their tasks inside AI’s reach. That’s up from 36% just one year ago. And the red area on that chart, the real world usage is still a fraction of what’s possible. Every month, it grows a bit. Anthropic built the scoreboard and most people haven’t looked at it yet.

Often the best, most honest thing to say is "we don't know"– and those words were uttered literally hundreds of times on TV today... cnn.it/4rKwdfB

@mikebettes @weatherchannel Congrats! Big milestone with tremendous contributions.

20 years ago today I walked through the doors of @weatherchannel for my first day of work. It’s been a life-changing moment covering countless storms. All of my colleagues are truly world class & their friendship invaluable. Thanks for watching everyone!

Today we observe #Juneteenth in the US by acknowledging and honoring the emancipation of enslaved Black Americans. I thank HP’s Racial Equality and Social Justice Task Force for their work. They have been a catalyst for positive change across the company.

This was fantastic, @JamesMcCall_HP. Thanks for sharing at this year’s #SixFiveSummit. Integrating sustainability into innovation and business strategies is rocket fuel for growth. Can’t wait to check out your team’s upcoming @HPSustainable Impact report!

The battery just ran out on my HP12C. Never gave it much thought, but I’ve used this calculator for 40 years. Still functional, looks current. Bet not many other consumer electronic devices out today will have that kind of run!

The gov’t has about 48 hours to fix a-soon-to-be-irreversible mistake. By allowing @SVB_Financial to fail without protecting all depositors, the world has woken up to what an uninsured deposit is — an unsecured illiquid claim on a failed bank. Absent @jpmorgan @citi or @BankofAmerica acquiring SVB before the open on Monday, a prospect I believe to be unlikely, or the gov’t guaranteeing all of SVB’s deposits, the giant sucking sound you will hear will be the withdrawal of substantially all uninsured deposits from all but the ‘systemically important banks’ (SIBs). These funds will be transferred to the SIBs, US Treasury (UST) money market funds and short-term UST. There is already pressure to transfer cash to short-term UST and UST money market accounts due to the substantially higher yields available on risk-free UST vs. bank deposits. These withdrawals will drain liquidity from community, regional and other banks and begin the destruction of these important institutions. The increased demand for short-term UST will drive short rates lower complicating the @federalreserve’s efforts to raise rates to slow the economy. Already thousands of the fastest growing, most innovative venture-backed companies in the U.S. will begin to fail to make payroll next week. Had the gov’t stepped in on Friday to guarantee SVB’s deposits (in exchange for penny warrants which would have wiped out the substantial majority of its equity value) this could have been avoided and SVB’s 40-year franchise value could have been preserved and transferred to a new owner in exchange for an equity injection. We would have been open to participating. This approach would have minimized the risk of any gov’t losses, and created the potential for substantial profits from the rescue. Instead, I think it is now unlikely any buyer will emerge to acquire the failed bank. The gov’t’s approach has guaranteed that more risk will be concentrated in the SIBs at the expense of other banks, which itself creates more systemic risk. For those who make the case that depositors be damned as it would create moral hazard to save them, consider the feasibility of a world where each depositor must do their own credit assessment of the bank they choose to bank with. I am a pretty sophisticated financial analyst and I find most banks to be a black box despite the 1,000s of pages of @SECGov filings available on each bank. SVB’s senior management made a basic mistake. They invested short-term deposits in longer-term, fixed-rate assets. Thereafter short-term rates went up and a bank run ensued. Senior management screwed up and they should lose their jobs. The @FDICgov and OCC also screwed up. It is their job to monitor our banking system for risk and SVB should have been high on their watch list with more than $200B of assets and $170B of deposits from business borrowers in effectively the same industry. The FDIC’s and OCC’s failure to do their jobs should not be allowed to cause the destruction of 1,000s of our nation’s highest potential and highest growth businesses (and the resulting losses of 10s of 1,000s of jobs for some of our most talented younger generation) while also permanently impairing our community and regional banks’ access to low-cost deposits. This administration is particularly opposed to concentrations of power. Ironically, its approach to SVB’s failure guarantees duopolistic banking risk concentration in a handful of SIBs. My back-of-the envelope review of SVB’s balance sheet suggests that even in a liquidation, depositors should eventually get back about 98% of their deposits, but eventually is too long when you have payroll to meet next week. So even without assigning any franchise value to SVB, the cost of a gov’t guarantee of SVB deposits would be minimal. On the other hand, the unintended consequences of the gov’t’s failure to guarantee SVB deposits are vast and profound and need to be considered and addressed before Monday. Otherwise, watch out below.

Great new product! Love them. linkedin.com/posts/activity…

On Veterans Day, I want to take a moment to recognize those who have sacrificed so much for our freedom. To our veterans at HP and veterans everywhere, we are grateful for your service. At @HP, we not only honor our veterans today, but support them throughout the year.

What a fantastic event this week in India, meeting the team and hosting a worldwide broadcast to launch our Workforce Services & Solutions business. Thank you @HP India team for your hospitality and enthusiasm. Together we are shaping the future of work. #WorkHappy #HPServices

I am excited to share that with Poly joining @HP, I am beginning a new role leading the Workforce Services & Solutions business, which brings together HP’s personal systems and print services to deliver flexible, secure, scalable services for customers. #WorkHappy #HPServices

Another great milestone in our journey to become part of the @HP community! press.hp.com/us/en/press-re…

To find out more about Poly timeline of our legacy with space travel, visit bit.ly/PolyxNASA Happy #NationalMoonDay! 🌕

Thrilled to be at #indy500 with #meyershankracing and ⁦@PolyCompany⁩. #driveforfive !!!

Poly takes steps toward a more sustainable future every day, and I am so proud of the team who make it possible. Excited to share our progress with our 2021 Sustainability Report 👉 bit.ly/3PMu8gg

@ilyabu @PolyCompany Thanks @ilyabu!

@daveshull @PolyCompany Congratulations! Its exciting to see this combination of Poly audio / video innovation and HP scale together moving forward. I am looking forward to continuing to grow and expand our partnership across a broad portfolio of Teams Devices with the new combined company!

Excited to share the news. @PolyCompany has entered into an agreement to be acquired by HP, and I am genuinely thrilled about the opportunity this represents for Poly and our employees, partners and customers.

Devastating video from Ukrainian friends of Russian missile strikes in the heart of Kharkiv. Ruthlessly destroying civilian buildings. #PutinWarCrimes #StopPutinNOW #UkraineRussianWar

"Sticking that number one on the car... it’s just energised everyone in the team" - Christian Horner #F1 @redbullracing f1.com/Horner_No1

⁦@redbullracing⁩ and ⁦@PolyCompany⁩ join forces. Clear communication when it truly matters! redbullracing.com/int-en/red-bul…