David Lindsay

@PeterDClack My suggestion: for credibility as well as accuracy to promote in confidence, it would be useful to quote the sources for your stats. No doubt that they are true, but it would help if we could quote the source to ensure if an error occurs, we are not called out publicly on it.

The world is sleepwalking towards a multi-trillion dollar abyss — a nightmare already underway. It promises to be the ultimate graveyard story — the sine qua non of the illusion of free air and sunlight. By 2030, fully 85–90% of the 1.3 million (equivalent) turbines operating today (GWEC 2025) will reach the end of useful operations. To just maintain the status quo, they will all need to be replaced in a 15-20 year window that straddles the 2050 net zero deadline. That’s roughly 35,000–40,000 turbines per year to be decommissioned, recycled (or graveyarded) and replaced. This will then lead to a second, even more costly build-out - on top of the one we’re still paying for. At the same time, 5–10 billion solar panels (2 TW installed today) will also be retired, triggering hundreds of billions in scrapping, replacing, recycling and burying. Wind decommissioning alone will cost $90–150 billion globally ($150–250 k per turbine, offshore will be double). New turbine costs (for 2025–2050) could easily hit $3–4 trillion — on top of what we’re already spending. As for the composite blades, 1.5–2 million units - mostly non-recyclable - will be heading to landfill graveyards or incineration. As for critical minerals, each 3–5 MW turbine needs 2 tonnes of rare-earth permanent magnets (NdPr, Dy). Demand could triple while China still refines 80% of global supply. All of this must happen as public subsidies fade, fossil-fuel restrictions tighten (diesel still powers 86% of mining equipment) and private capital becomes pickier, after years of thin or negative returns in renewables. The coming 'replace-everything-again' phase will demand a WWII-scale industrial mobilisation with far less political goodwill.