David Timis

"Be content with what you have; rejoice in the way things are. When you realize there is nothing lacking, the whole world belongs to you." - Lao Tzu

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Food for thought 🧠 #Tech #AI #Index #Investing

@TrungTPhan Speed is an idiot, and it's sad to see the low point society has gotten to for having such individuals as 'the most followed' and people wasting their time watching him.

One of funnier moments from Speed's World Cup run. Two people ask for a selfie at Spain vs. France. He thinks randos. It's Ana Botín (Exec Chair of Banco Santander) and Juan Rigo (head of Mercadona, Spain's largest grocery chain). Botín says "he's the Walmart of Spain and I'm the JPMorgan of Europe." She pitches him to open a checking account at her US brand OpenBank with a juicy 4% deposit interest ("OpenBank like OpenAI"). Two billionaires and some of the "most important people in Europe" but Speed "has more followers" lol

A very Barcelona vs Real Madrid feel to this. With Spain being Barca and France being Madrid, of course. Technical quality and exceptional tactical balance with one superstar against a team with basic tactical balance and countless superstars. Barca (Spain) with control (why they typically win La Liga). But you can’t rule Madrid (France) out because of their superstars (which is why they win more CL’s, and why you can’t rule them out of this game).

$IBM is down more than 23% after revenue missed estimates driven by “weakness in the software and infrastructure business.” CEO Arvind Krishna said clients shifted capex toward supply-constrained servers, storage and memory, a move IBM “did not anticipate” at this scale.

According to $IBM, $MU should spike to $2000+ These are $IBM CEO exact words: "In the last few weeks of June, we saw clients shift their quarterly capex spend toward servers, storage, and memory purchases to secure supply-constrained infrastructure ahead of expected price increases." Companies that'll benefit extremely: Memory — the core of the trade $MU — Micron (DRAM + NAND) $SNDK — Sandisk (NAND) $SKHY — DRAM/HBM leader) Storage — HDD, SSD & systems $STX — Seagate (HDD, tight supply) $WDC — Western Digital (HDD) $NTAP — NetApp (enterprise storage arrays) $PSTG — Pure Storage (flash arrays) $DELL — Dell (storage + servers) Controllers & memory interface $RMBS — Rambus (DDR5, more $ per memory module) $SIMO — Silicon Motion (NAND controllers) $MRVL — Marvell (storage + custom silicon) $ALAB — Astera Labs (CXL / memory expansion) $SMCI — Super Micro (AI servers) $HPE — Hewlett Packard Enterprise Picks & shovels — capacity + power (4) $LRCX — Lam Research (most memory-levered semicap) $AMAT — Applied Materials $VRT — Vertiv (server power + cooling) $MPWR — Monolithic Power (memory/server power)

Conviction is when you are frustrated that a stock is not down more.

Interesting.

It's still interesting to me how the value of Anthropic is not reflected in $AMZN. If Ant were to IPO at a $3T valuation, the value of $AMZN's stake in Ant would be 20% of $AMZN's current market cap. A "normal" multiple on AWS + Ant stake gets you to the total current market cap of $AMZN. E-commerce, ad, custom chip, logistics, satellite business, prime subs basically at zero value. I don't think that makes sense. $AMZN is one of my biggest portfolio positions.

Tom Lee just went on CNBC and said buy every dip in Korea, SK Hynix, and Samsung and here is why he is right (Save this). SK Hynix controls approximately 60% of the global HBM market and reported an operating margin of 72% in Q1 2026 and its entire HBM supply through 2026 is fully contracted. The selloff is technical driven by Korean retail leveraged ETF mechanics not a deterioration in the underlying business. The ADR listing is the structural event that changes the stock's trajectory. SK Hynix listed on Nasdaq under ticker SKHY on July 10, raising $29.65 billion, the largest foreign ADR offering in history, surpassing Alibaba's 2014 debut. Until this listing, most American institutional capital was categorically unable to own SK Hynix. Pension funds, index funds, and insurance companies operating under US listed only mandates had no direct path to the dominant AI memory company in the world and that changes overnight. SK Hynix trades at 6.2x forward P/E versus Micron's 7x, despite holding the superior position in HBM and that discount closes as passive inflows materialize. The core argument across all of it, unless memory and semiconductors are no longer central to AI and there is no replacement in sight there is no reason to be worried about Korea, SK Hynix, or Samsung. Every dip is buyable and Milk Road Pro members are up massively on these trades, come join Milk Road Pro for just a dollar using the link below to get our full trades.

In order to be successful, you have to do five things. There’s a sequence to it. 1. Have (audacious) goals. 2. Identify and don't tolerate problems. 3. Diagnose the problems to get at their root causes. 4. Design a path to fix those things. 5. Push through to results. This is what I call looping. Go for your goals, identify your problems, get to the root cause, design a path, and push through. Life is basically just doing that over and over again. If you do that, you'll make the advances. #Principles #RayDalio #PersonalGrowth

$MU Holy Shit. Morgan Stanley projects Micron will generate ~$400B in combined operating income across 2026 & 2027. That's nearly 40% of the entire market cap. That's fucking ridiculous. 2026 → 2027 Revenue: $172.9B → $285.9B (+65%) Operating Income: $140.7B → $248.7B (+77%)

Our recent AI Value Capture piece tries to answer the question we get asked more than any other in calls with allocators: who is actually keeping the margin in this cycle, now that the easy infrastructure trade has been priced in? (1/4)🧵

Though inference workloads increasingly shift to ASICs, $NVDA bull thesis is still intact. No sign of its training dominance loosening on the horizon and training workloads will still keep growing, just at a slower pace than inference. $NVDA will do just fine.

DeepMind CEO calls for an independent standards body to regulate frontier AI techcrunch.com/2026/07/14/dee…

Chamath @chamath says a million AI tokens costs $0.50 from China versus $56 from Anthropic, and that spread has to rationalize. "Let's say a "barrel of intelligence," which is a million tokens, okay? You can buy that barrel for $26 from Anthropic's really good model. You can buy it from OpenAI for $26. Anthropic's latest model costs you $56. Elon is selling you a barrel of intelligence for $1. Zuck is about to sell it to you for $1.50. Demis and Sundar are trying to sell it to you for $1. The Chinese will sell it to you for $0.50. So this rationalization has to happen. We have the same input that has this crazy cost." ____ Follow @firesidealpha for more daily highlights of key business and technology conversations.

The mega bull case for AI infrastructure would be *if* market share shifted away from certain frontier labs with 90%+ inference margins toward cheaper models, whether open-source or closed. It would increase the ROI on AI spend for end customers by increasing intelligence per dollar, which would drive incremental token demand. Margin dollars would effectively get redistributed from the frontier labs to AI infrastructure providers. The infra winners would be those with the lowest per token cost and the winners at the model layer would be those with the highest token efficiency. There are many reasons Jensen is so focused on open source, but this is likely the most important one as I think he is probably less worried about a monopsony these days. Lower margin % at the model layer = more margin $ at the infra layer all else equal. With SpaceX and Meta being vertically integrated and possessing the #3 and #4 models respectively it is more possible than ever. Note that Grok 4.5 is ahead of Fable for some useful tasks at a much lower cost, so ranking them #3 is conservative. This is not happening yet. Cheap, mostly open source tokens are likely the majority of volume today but the majority of economic value is still accruing to the most intelligent models. Might change though. We will see.

TSMC, the world’s largest contract chipmaker, reports 68% surge in June revenue, per CNBC