David

The proportion of high-IQ people in the world is declining fast.

New price targets for $OPEN just released by AAII.

The Fed Is Risking a Late Cycle Mistake I think the Fed should have cut 25 bps and framed it as insurance. The Committee’s own statement said job gains have remained low, inflation remains somewhat elevated, uncertainty about the outlook remains elevated, and the implications of developments in the Middle East are uncertain, while also stressing that it is attentive to risks on both sides of its dual mandate. That is not the language of an economy running too hot on genuine demand. It is the language of a central bank staring at a geopolitical supply shock that is already tightening conditions by itself through higher energy, freight, and operating costs. In that setting, holding the funds rate at 3.5% to 3.75% risks confusing inflation optics with economic strength. The real economy is not sending a clean strength signal. February payrolls fell by 92,000 and unemployment was 4.4%. Powell also said housing has remained weak and that labor demand has clearly softened. Even the inflation data do not describe a healthy economy. February PPI rose 0.7%, and core final demand less foods, energy, and trade services rose 0.5%, but inside that same report airline passenger services fell, television advertising time sales dropped 7.9% on the month and 18.0% on the year, and business loans were down 24.8% on the year. That is a late cycle economy absorbing a cost shock while demand, credit formation, and pricing power deteriorate underneath. In that environment, a 25 point cut would not have been an inflation surrender. It would have been a recognition that the bigger risk now is being late to the slowdown, not early to the inflation fight.