Sabitlenmiş Tweet
What Game Theory Reveals About Life, The Universe, and Everything
youtu.be/mScpHTIi-kM?si…
YouTube
English
Mene
352 posts
Mene
@DebtDistressed
Frmr EUR HY and distressed. Here to learn. Sometimes I'll write how I invest. Will never tell you how to invest. Personal views, no investment advice.
Katılım Aralık 2018
671 Takip Edilen3K Takipçiler
@TMTLongShort Wait, you were a promoter while working on the sellside?! When did you sleep?
English
When I was like 19 I fell down the rabbit hole of PUA and would obsessively read books and forums by Mystery, Nason and Paul Janka who was apparently a fellow hedge fund guy.
I would hit on every girl walking past in soho or the Abercrombie on 5th.
Thought it was a complete waste of time for a while but conditioned me to the point where a year later when I got into Provocateur/Avenue for the first time with my ID Chief fake I had no shame and would hit on every model within a fifty foot radius.
And that’s how I fell into being a promoter at night while working sellside during the day.
Fascinating to see these forums wax and wane.
nomadgeist@nomadgeist
The whole hardcoreness of the dating community has been kind of killed off. I once hung out with this little clique of PUA enthusiasts in Australia, and this was their standard routine for a night out: 7pm: Meetup at an isolated park on outskirts of the city to do bioenergetic exercises which included jumping up an down, stomping (grounding), stretches, screaming to open throat etc 7:45pm: Motivational pep talk by one of the more experienced guys 8:30pm: walk to club, warm up sets on the street with passing groups of girls 9:00pm: Hit club queue, hit on girls in the line to try and connect with them later in the bar 9:30pm: Enter bar, nonstop sets, try to create a little hub/large group somewhere in the club 11:30pm: If not going great move to club 2, hit on girls on street + the line of club 2 2:30am: If no pull, spill out onto the street, hit on girls outside bar or smoking area 3am: These guys would then literally work the cab rank, try to invite themselves into cabs with groups of girls leaving until 4am for "afterparty" (the more skilled guys would very often pull this off, and end up in a cab heading to some chicks house or the pad of one of the guys who had good logistics) If that didn't succeed, guys would head to a 24hour pancake joint in the city at 5am for a chat and debrief on what went wrong etc. This is the kind of hardcore extreme energy that a lot guys getting into the game now can't conceive of
English
@TMTLongShort Not so sure about market markers/traders. Agreed that the analyst job on the sellside is becoming obsolete. The pressure to put out volume instead of quality comes from upper management/perverse incentives.
English
Utility of sellside is dropping like a stone. The whole model needs to be restructured asap. And yes I understand the corp access and bogey angle. Nevertheless.
The least they can do is attempt to replicate Citrini and semianalysis.
Not holding my breath.
English
@yieldsearcher I don't think it's overheating growth at all. The more persistent issue is unsustainable debt burden, budget deficits, and a stretched consumer. Combine that with the oil shock and that's how rates react.
English
@TMTLongShort Why did you sell? Other than profit taking. Are you thinking about putting anything into commodities (wheat, corn, sugar)? Aware it's probably a nightmare to trade futs with compliance, but you can do ETFs despite the 2-5% slippage due to rollover costs.
English
Fuck it. Out of BTC 🫡
(Paper hands. Hope I have to buy back in 10x higher)
I’m now 70/30 Gold/Cash
English
@philoinvestor I do. But fully aware that this bullshit could go on for 1-2 more years.
English
This seems relevant again. Everyone looking at the 10Y above 4.5% and the 30Y above 5%. I'm looking at the 2Y above 4%.
As @TruthGundlach says, this is leading indicator for Fed policy. It will implies one or two 25bps hikes. Listen to Jeff!
Mene@DebtDistressed
When equity and bond markets are decoupling and telling different stories, I listen to the bond market.
English
@HayekAndKeynes Isn't a large portion of the upwards capex revision caused by price inflation?
English
Not much as mattered lately
-Earnings have been killer
-AI capex keeps getting revised higher
-Positioning had washed out and everyone was over hedged
Iran captured the headlines but for the US the first order impacts (and even second order like higher inflation and higher rates) have been more than offset by tax cuts and the tariff rollback helped even more.
English
@DebtDistressed Wait until you see what else they buy lol
substack.com/profile/275210…
English
@NicoAIQ how did you know? 😊
First Squawk@FirstSquawk
CHINA US DISCUSS CORN PURCHASES AHEAD OF TRUMP-XI SUMMIT
English
@anchovycapital Haven't looked at those at all. I miss my bond trading days. Regarding the distressed opp set - likely to expand to private credit and data center debt over the next couple of years. Me thinks there will be plenty of opportunities there 😉
English
@DebtDistressed Dumbest thing is the perps still trade at 10% yield. With the shitty opportunity set in distressed right now, it's so dumb these are priced as 10% risk.
English
$VG has reported Q1 results, strong beat vs estimates. Updated FY26 guidance with Adj. EBITDA raised significantly to $8.2 – $8.5 bn from previous $5.2 –$5.8 bn.
Bought some calls yday at $12 strike.
@anchovycapital
English
@anchovycapital Agreed that this prob rallies to the high teens. Will listen to the call today and decide whether to make this a long term holding.
English
@DebtDistressed All good! You've traded it better than me. I'm still long a big position. Obviously TTF has come down driven the pullback, but TTF for end of the year is so undervalued. Can't help but feel this rallies into high teens in short order.
English
@DebtDistressed Legend, nice work getting those calls on.
English
@TradFidiGuy @JerryCap Agreed. Worth mentioning Geico, and other insurers and reinsurers. He really understood the insurance business and how to use float to enhance returns.
English
@DebtDistressed @JerryCap There are some exceptions to the Coke, Apple, but I’m likely to chalk these up to rising tides of passive and him picking out the only things that could absorb his size.
English
You all want to be Buffett but none of you are willing to sell AI stocks right now
Jerry Capital@JerryCap
You all want to be Soros but none of you are willing to buy an AI stock right now
English