SixSigmaCapital@SixSigmaCapital
PORTFOLIO REVIEW
Strategy is to grow my equity curve by compounding wins and trying to minimise losses. I am not a "buy-and-hold investor" or a "trader", I generally fall somewhere in between. Example: GOOGL AMZN MSFT I will HODL whereas majority I swing-trade or trade around a core position. I do have some uncorrelated bets in my portfolio away from US tech whether that is UK companies, China allocation or allocation to things like $XLE.
Current allocations:
88% allocated to long positions, 10.5% cash, 1.5% allocated to a short position
Positions by size:
$GOOGL
Fundamentally very sound, ~22x earnings not a demanding multiple and with growth as far as eye can see. I like it as an AI play that is somewhat divorced from the NVDA OpenAi MSFT group. In a long-term uptrend, few % away from ATH. Easy hold.
$AMZN 38x forward earnings and expected to compound EPS in mid 20% next few years. Strong uptrend has absorbed Bezos selling well and close to ATH. Definitely can see $300. Easy Hold.
Cash: Currently at 10.5% down from ~23% after having built out $AMD $UBER $JD.L $GRG.L and some trades in $CELH $FSLY
$BABA Trades at 9x forward earnings, PEG of <1 over next 5 years. Plus LTM shareholder yield is 12.6%. Currently trading below key MA. I own this at cost average of low 70’s after recent additions and will hold.
$HIMS Long this stock since $6 but cost average closer to $11. Trading at 29x forward earnings, whilst growing at much greater clip. Trading above all key MA’s again but in somewhat of a consolidation phase having pulled back from 35’s. As previous, I have taken out my cost basis plus bit more between $30 to $34 making all shares house shares now.
$MSFT Perennially expensive stock trades at around 32x forward earnings. Trading right between 50MSA and 200MSA. Only up 9% in the last year notably. But still don't see myself selling out of this name. Easy Hold.
$SQ PE of 20, PEG of <1. Chart remains appealing but failed breakout recently. If breaks above $90 cleanly genuinely think can reach >120 quickly.
$KWBP.L Broader tech exposure to China stocks. Holding no plans to reduce or add.
$SE Profitable growth at decent scale again. Trades at ~31x earnings but EPS growing much faster (2026 EPS more than twice that of 2024) Above all key MA’s, consolidating last few months. Holding.
$PYPL Long at average of high 50’s. Not much to say except low multiple, low PEG ratio, close to 52 week highs. Hold
$COIN Long held this stock, average of close to $100. Reduced recently between 280 and 330. Target for this cycle was $300 which has been reached. Bull case is if can surpass the mid 330 resistance then $400? Remains to be seen. Notably I added on a speculative trade to this position with a small 1% allocation to a triple coin ETP at 250.3, doing quite well so far.
Asos $ASC.L A global online retailer. Been through a rough few years and some restructuring. Low multiples. Trading in the 330 to 450 range for last 12/18M’s it seems. Holding.
$CLPT Medicine- tech, therapy-enabling platform for navigation & delivery to the brain. Was Up ~100% last year but think can back up with another great year with plenty of partnerships and has a long runway with many pipelines. Recent ER was good (increasing growth, paid down most debt etc) Trading above key MA’s still. Holding.
$SNOW Trades at 12x sales after recent run, However top line expected to grow at mid 20%, inflection in margins and EPS expected to grow >50% next few years. High multiple but still could be upside ahead imo. I owned at 115 exited at 173’s and now in again at average of 159’s. Building out a base from its recent highs of 186. 200 not unrealistic this year.
$TMDX Medicine-tech that with its OCS especially helping to improve organ transplant therapy. In my work I have spoken to Specialist Nurses in Organ Donation who say it is helping more transplants get done. Projected to grow top line high 20% and bottom line >50% next few years. Way off ATH and now in a ‘show-me’ phase for the market who have concerns about cost discipline, earnings durability and to disprove the short report through their actions. Holding.
$XLEP (XLE equivalent) purchased end of last year in 450’s and now at 513’s. I still like it this year as an uncorrelated position.
$PAGS and $STNE
Round tripped both these names as took my eye of them. Low multiple stocks, growing top and bottom lines beneficiary of rate-cuts. PEG of like 0.6. Was up 100% on both these now slightly negative on both. Still reporting strong numbers, plan to hold.
Short $PLTR Currently a 1.5% position reduced from 2% after lightening up when it pulled back 25% to $63 as I expect a counter relly for a bit now. Leaving plenty of room to average in again ideally at 80, 84 and 90 if can get there. At their peak in dotcom bubble $AMZN $MSFTtraded at 37x for a moment, yet $PLTRat 150B in marketcap trades at ~57xEV/S whilst only growing top line at 25% next few years (Est). Will increase when see topping candles and trend reversal.
$NIO<1% holding. Speculative position
New positions:
$AMD at 119 average. $UBER at 60.2. Roughly 3% allocation to each as medium term investments
$GRG.L Greggs- a purveyor of baked goods in the UK with durable earnings. 16x earnings with a 3% yield. Had pulled back recently around 30% which peaked my interest and have entered in last few days.
$JD.L A sports fashion retail company that still doing well on the high street but has a wider portfolio across the US and Europe. At 7x earnings now and PEG of below 1.
$CELH 26.23 and $FSLY 9.8 as swings for this year. These 2 are higher beta stocks which were huge underperformers last year which I think could be 30% gainers this year. Lower conviction though.
Exited:
$TSLA which was my first ever stock and longest held position. I sold my last shares for a 21x but exited shares at cost average of mid 300’s (after held since was ~60B) Stock is trading at ~137x NTM earnings and completely divorced from reality. However, it is holding up well it seems like. Regardless of valuation, I no longer have conviction as previous for many reasons, but primarily Elon and core biz deterioration.
MSCI World Small Cap ETF (sold for 20% gain, not much interest in holding overall so moved on)
$MVST Traded 3 times on the way up achieving ~40/50% on each of the 3 trades most recently 1.1s to ~$2.00.