Socrates 🅰️ 🏛

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Socrates 🅰️ 🏛

Socrates 🅰️ 🏛

@DefinitionsNew

Philosophical rambling, near-future investing. $ASTS. Thomas Inch challenge. Author of Science Fiction novel about AI. Skeptic. Musician. Chef. Husband. Father.

Katılım Kasım 2020
60 Takip Edilen1.5K Takipçiler
Socrates 🅰️ 🏛
Socrates 🅰️ 🏛@DefinitionsNew·
No, it's not. 2 and 5 are equivalent, logically. Picking 2 does not automatically include 1 in the solution set, just as picking 5 does not automatically include 6 in the solution set. Both are perfectly rational. Neither are provably correct. Because, again, the question is ambiguous.
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Socrates 🅰️ 🏛
Socrates 🅰️ 🏛@DefinitionsNew·
@knardsh @Anthony_Bonato Incorrect. An ambiguous problem does not have enough data to draw a conclusion. That does not mean "none of the proposed answers are correct." It means you cannot know.
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Shplorgh
Shplorgh@knardsh·
@DefinitionsNew @Anthony_Bonato With An ambiguous question it would follow that none of the proposed answers are correct as there is not enough information for one to be correct
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Socrates 🅰️ 🏛
Socrates 🅰️ 🏛@DefinitionsNew·
@spcx_optimist @Anthony_Bonato Just because something can be true does not mean it is true. The question is not "can this be the right answer" it's "is the correct answer" and because of the wording, and logic, it's impossible to know. That's why it's ambiguous.
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dax@thdxr·
please i'm begging you show me something you built not another "this is my custom agent setup" post where you pretend you're doing something smarter than vanilla claude code please
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Socrates 🅰️ 🏛
Socrates 🅰️ 🏛@DefinitionsNew·
@thdxr A monolithic "meshfield" human-readable format that didn't exist as far as I know, wherein luminance encodes height and RGB encodes biome. Package importable to Unreal Engine. This is not the full output, it's just a screen grab.
Socrates 🅰️ 🏛 tweet media
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Boring_Business
Boring_Business@BoringBiz_·
The FIRE (financial independence retire early) movement has done an immense amount of harm to society This is coming from someone who used to be a believer in FIRE, but I have realized just how much of a fallacy it is, as I have grown older Taking a bunch of high potential income earners and convincing them that their life goal should be to pursue a net worth that allows them to check out of society is immensely damaging to the social fabric Many of these people sit on the upper echelon of office jobs, have built great businesses, or are at the top of their field in their career field They should be inspired to continue doing what they are best at, and ultimately, mentor and give back to the next generation who want to pursue those same goals Instead, many of these FIRE folks become wandering retirees with a meaningless life who are trying to grasp on to money as their north star It is a false sense of security and accomplishment. Becoming wealthy should never be a goal in the first place. It should have always been to pursue something that adds meaning to your own life and to society It is a completely fallacy to believe that retiring will be your source of happiness. More often than not, it has the complete opposite effect
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Socrates 🅰️ 🏛
Socrates 🅰️ 🏛@DefinitionsNew·
Yeah, Sol, geez, I was thinking that too. Obviously. Still tagging @thsottiaux because I know he's not busy at all.
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Tim Farrar
Tim Farrar@TMFAssociates·
This points out key uncertainties, but asserting that AST has "demonstrated, every step of the way, that the technology works" is just not true. One off demos don't show if AST will be able to deliver a scaled commercial service and telco doubts are growing
Kevin Mak@kevin__mak

It’s probably multiple shells and overlapping coverage so 300-500+ birds, to get to $10B. How much do those cost to build/rebuild/replace/boost to keep everything in orbit? How much will future spectrum deals cost? How much does competition drive down government contact margins. How much is financed with straight debt? Does it take 3 years or 5 years or 10 years to ramp consumer revenue? How slowly does government revenue ramp? (Global govt’s are incompetent at ramping drone spend/production even though it’s a solved technology and demonstrably required by current conflicts.) Remember two years ago when we were talking about “the company can self fund the entire constellation with just $500m of cash”. I don’t doubt my numbers are wrong. Everyone’s are wrong because D2D is an industry that literally doesn’t exist yet (de minimus SpaceX/TMobile or Apple/Gsat doesn’t count). The path to $10B has so many assumptions stacked on assumptions, and even then, if I had to guess I still think they eventually get there. But the path is going to be far more bumpy than “launch 90 birds at $23m/bird that all stay in perfect orbit for 7 years and then sit back and let the 90% ebitda margin FCF roll in”. If people want to call me stupid and ignorant for not understanding how to value this business I’m happy to wear that hat. But what I think we can all agree on, and really the key part of my post, is that the last 20x return on the stock, (from ~$4 to $80) was far easier than THE NEXT 20x. The previous market mispricing was atrocious, because people thought 100% ASTS was going to fail despite them having demonstrated, every step of the way, that the technology works. Versus today there’s a much more reasonable and measured debate for different future outcomes that could go in different directions. And I concede I don’t have the right mandate, or skill set, or attention span to follow that.

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Tibo
Tibo@thsottiaux·
Thank you to the 7M active users who are now using Codex and ChatGPT Work. We have added a banked reset to everyone's account to celebrate the milestone. You can apply the reset in the desktop app or on web and it will replenish the weekly usage for you. Have fun out there.
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WildColonialGirl
WildColonialGirl@girl_wild95331·
@JamesMelville He developed a rare cancer that coincides with him taking the Covid vaccine. He also pushed the vaccines onto his followers. It’s very sad tbs
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James Melville 🚜
James Melville 🚜@JamesMelville·
Actor Sam Neill has sadly died aged 78. As well has being a fantastic actor, he regularly showed his love of nature and farming. Here he is with his beloved duck. A lovely man who understood the value of the simple things in life. RIP Sam Neill.
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