Degen | Management Of DeFi

Bitcoin bear market drawdowns have a clear pattern: 2011: -93% 2015: -86% 2018: -84% 2022: -77% Every cycle, the drawdown gets smaller as the market matures. Following this trend, the 2026 bottom should be around -70% from the $126K ATH. That puts us at $38K. Good luck buying your bottom at $69K, $60K and $50K. I’ll see you at $38K.

🚨 HERE’S WHY BITCOIN IS NONSTOP DUMPING RIGHT NOW If you still think $BTC trades like a supply-and-demand asset, you MUST read this carefully. Because that market no longer exists. What you’re watching right now is not normal price action. It’s not “weak hands.” It’s not sentiment. And it’s definitely not retail selling. Most people are completely unaware what’s happening. And by the time it becomes obvious, the damage is already done. This move didn’t start today. It’s been building quietly under the surface for months. And now it’s accelerating. Here’s the truth: The moment supply can be synthetically created, scarcity is gone. And when scarcity is gone, price stops being discovered on-chain and starts being set in derivatives. That is exactly what happened to Bitcoin. And it’s the same structural break that already happened to: → Gold → Silver → Oil → Equities Once derivatives took over. The original Bitcoin thesis is broken. Bitcoin’s valuation was built on two ideas: → A hard cap of 21 million → No rehypothecation That framework died the moment Wall Street layered this on top of the chain: → Cash-settled futures → Perpetual swaps → Options → ETFs → Prime broker lending → Wrapped BTC → Total return swaps From that point forward Bitcoin supply became theoretically INFINITE. Not on-chain. But in price discovery, which is what actually matters. Synthetic Float Ratio (SFR). The metric that explains everything. Once synthetic supply overwhelms real supply, price no longer responds to demand. It responds to positioning, hedging, and liquidation flows. Wall Street can now trade against Bitcoin. They’re not guessing direction. They’re doing what they do in every derivatives-dominated market: 1⃣ Create unlimited paper BTC 2⃣ Short into rallies 3⃣ Force liquidations 4⃣ Cover lower 5⃣ Repeat This isn’t “betting.” It’s inventory manufacturing. One real BTC can now simultaneously back: → An ETF share → A futures contract → A perpetual swap → An options delta → A broker loan → A structured note All at THE SAME TIME. That’s six claims on one coin. That is not a free market. That is a fractional-reserve price system wearing a Bitcoin mask. Ignore it if you want, but don’t pretend you weren’t warned. I’ve been calling Bitcoin tops and bottoms for over a decade now, and I’ll do it again in 2026. Follow and turn on notifications before it's too late.

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ICT GEM💎 (Understanding Order Blocks) When do we use the last candle versus the consecutive candles?

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ICT GEM💎 $DXY relationship with Currencies and Index Futures: 🔸Forex = Dollar is going to be highly sensitive to forex and a much more impactful driver of price (unless its being manipulated and held in a consolidation) 🔹Index Futures = Follows the longer term draw of risk on/off with the Dollar. But sometimes the index can flex against that. Indices should follow along with DXY but not as strongly correlated as currencies would be #TRADINGTIPS

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