Devin Tiffany

579 posts

Devin Tiffany

Devin Tiffany

@DevinTiffany

Macro Trends Investor. Economist. Boston University 2018-2022

Boston, MA Katılım Ekim 2016
158 Takip Edilen206 Takipçiler
Devin Tiffany
Devin Tiffany@DevinTiffany·
A small bit from the speech you linked that I think you may like, “on one hand businesses are cautious to fire because of the tight labor market post pandemic and on the other hand hesitant to hire due to uncertainty.” If that uncertainty is linked to policy instead of economics, then cutting rates or holding them neutral would seem extremely unlikely to fix labor demand (if you think that’s an issue) as the core tension is politically driven. Meanwhile inflation has been driving higher.
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Danny Dayan
Danny Dayan@DannyDayan5·
Even the perma doves are recognizing the reality of labor supply as well as the frequency of supply shocks. Still offers zero solutions nor willingness to act, but they do tend to move gradually. I have been ahead of all of these dynamics. federalreserve.gov/newsevents/spe…
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Devin Tiffany
Devin Tiffany@DevinTiffany·
Absolutely, I think the question is what’s the tip for, though. If the view is you should just tip because they’re worse off than you, then you should be tipping a ton of people who almost nobody does (e.g., the cashier, janitor, whatever.) If the view is that it’s for better than average service, then if you’re ordering takeout at a place you know to be good it’s reasonable. If you do not know it to be good it’s also reasonable not to tip the first time. The line here is ultimately extremely arbitrary.
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B. G.
B. G.@206BG·
@EnergyCredit1 @DevinTiffany People working at restaurants are not ballin out on that salary. I tip more in person, but everyone from the hole in the wall pho place on up are absolutely getting a tip.
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Jeff Davies, the Energy OG
Jeff Davies, the Energy OG@EnergyCredit1·
True fucking story here I'm responding to a lawyer who doesn't leave tips on take out orders But the truth - I had a defamation case go to SCOTUS - Scalia denied - 10 mil arbitration award overturned in MN Supreme Court which to this day is bought decision. The fucking contract said AAA rules and Arbitrator decided on timeliness and let go fwd. No court should have ever touched. Upheld in district and appellate. Other side hired ex MN Supreme Court judge for MN Supreme Court. LOST. Was bougth. No doubt. This stuff crystal crytsal clear if two parties contract ot rules govt cant touch. - I co-wrote the SCOTUS brief. Small-ish edits, but my lawyer at time (had switched) viewed me as legal equal. She's now high up in MN govt. - There was a different outcome for me, not nearly as good and with another lawyer. We had a contract. He asked for a tip based on my outcome. I gave him. 100k tip
Jeff Davies, the Energy OG@EnergyCredit1

Finance MBA. Worked at banks, hedge funds and PE. Worked harder than you More successful than you Why I tip. Why you dont. You arent a success. Period. Whine about how you went to law school and arent anything harder. To not leave a few buck when any fucking moron knows restaurant makes less money on that order is comical. Loser mentality. I didnt go to law school. I helped write SCOTUS briefs on personal defamation case that Scalia denied. Look it up if you think im full of shit. No law school and achieved more than you ever will in law. Ever. I had a fucking lawyer ask for a tip after the final end of that case. Gave him extra 100k. Not part of contract.

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Devin Tiffany
Devin Tiffany@DevinTiffany·
@EnergyCredit1 Not sure how you read my last response and thought I’d engage in whatever this nonsense is. Enjoy. Hope whatever is bothering you today sorts itself out.
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Devin Tiffany
Devin Tiffany@DevinTiffany·
@EnergyCredit1 Brother, you should review how you speak to others on the internet. This is far too much of a response over what is an extremely minor disagreement.
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Jeff Davies, the Energy OG
Jeff Davies, the Energy OG@EnergyCredit1·
@DevinTiffany I have economics undergrad, finance mba. for you to be economics guy and not understand take out i lowrr margin is lol. just lazy. so what we go back to all in restaurant. there is no service to order in? you are a dumb fuck. a fucking morong. go fuck yoursxelf.
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Devin Tiffany
Devin Tiffany@DevinTiffany·
I can agree with tipping in this situation, but it is a bit contingent on you ordering frequently enough from a place that they know you and that you know ~the level of quality you are going to get. The latter part of that is particularly relevant given there are many highly rated steak places I've been that are complete crap and deserve no such tip.
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Jeff Davies, the Energy OG
Jeff Davies, the Energy OG@EnergyCredit1·
@DevinTiffany Sorry bro. Cannot even image not leaving small tip. Of course it matters the place. If you tell me you order from great steak place then no tip for taking out. they will hate you. get to know you. my steak will be better than yours. but you do you.
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Devin Tiffany
Devin Tiffany@DevinTiffany·
@Fullcarry Either vengeance or he wants to establish the president does have the authority to fire the Fed chair, that way if Warsh does in fact not lower rates, he has a threat he can use to coerce him.
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Ed Bradford
Ed Bradford@Fullcarry·
Why is Trump continuing with this Powell investigation instead of just replacing him with a hand-picked nominee?
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Devin Tiffany
Devin Tiffany@DevinTiffany·
Until something breaks or we get significant escalation from here I tend to think the market will just continue selling the top side. Nobody really wants to contemplate what would happen if the strait stays closed, so we'll continue on hopes and dreams until we can't any longer imo.
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Danny Dayan
Danny Dayan@DannyDayan5·
I don't see these two situations as the same at all, but this is a crazy eerie technical coincidence. Oil's momentum is as negative as it was in June 2022, and the price was literally exactly the same as today.
Danny Dayan tweet media
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Devin Tiffany
Devin Tiffany@DevinTiffany·
Robin has been banging the drum [rightfully] for a US blockade of Iran. With the blockade in effect, oil prices are ~94 CL at the time of writing. The blockade reduces the leverage Iran has and increases the likelihood of a deal; this can contain the price of wti/brent at least until something breaks. x.com/robin_j_brooks…
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Devin Tiffany
Devin Tiffany@DevinTiffany·
Financial markets don't really want to contemplate the idea that the current situation will persist for much longer, so whenever there is some positive rumblings, CL sells off. This can continue for some time, but I'd note we've gone from, 'good news' resulting in dips below $90 to ~$97 at the time of writing.
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🇦🇪 HGS
🇦🇪 HGS@Sajwani·
Oil is now back to below $100 …. What’s happening
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Devin Tiffany
Devin Tiffany@DevinTiffany·
@GasBuddyGuy I think the idea is to prevent Iran from exporting via the strait to try and put pressure on them to open it. Oil prices will spike of course, but I am not even sure if that factors into the calculus anymore because the republicans have no chance of winning the mid-terms.
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Guy Berger
Guy Berger@EconBerger·
@DevinTiffany A high follower account just the other day! (got a lot of pushback, of course!)
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Guy Berger
Guy Berger@EconBerger·
I can’t believe I feel the need to say this but… the decline in teen pregnancy/parenthood is an unalloyed good thing, a giant policy victory
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Devin Tiffany
Devin Tiffany@DevinTiffany·
So, Core PCE of 0.4% for 3 months in a row, Continuing claims dropped to a fresh low, and we are... on pause. Powell is really doing his best to go down as the Arthur Burns of his time.
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Danny Dayan
Danny Dayan@DannyDayan5·
@DevinTiffany Yeah, inflation above target for the rest of our lives but earth is billions years old! Transitory!
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Danny Dayan
Danny Dayan@DannyDayan5·
Three straight core PCE of 0.4. This has not happened since 2023. This is directly attributable to the Fed's cuts last year, and further evidence that they are below neutral rates. It also makes looking through broad supply disruptions far more difficult.
Danny Dayan tweet media
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Devin Tiffany
Devin Tiffany@DevinTiffany·
@FedchairmanB @DannyDayan5 Where’s the evidence the consumer base is weak? Income data and employment look fine to me. And if the consumer base is weak that has to be at least partially attributable to the fact the Fed has continuously let inflation be above target to begin with.
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Fed Chairman
Fed Chairman@FedchairmanB·
@DannyDayan5 Even with that and other data, surely they can't hike with a weak Consumer base? [Yes gotta see CPI tomorrow] but things were shaky beforehand.
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Devin Tiffany
Devin Tiffany@DevinTiffany·
@Big_Orrin It's pretty difficult to spin this as anything other than an out from, 'power plant day' honestly. Almost nothing has changed.
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Keşfet

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