Devin Dillard retweetledi

i tracked 1,347 trades across 22 funded traders in my 1 on 1 over 6 months
sorted every single trade by hold time
the data wrecked everything i thought i knew about "letting winners run"
here's the breakdown:
UNDER 5 MINUTES (scalp range):
- trade count: 412
- win rate: 61%
- average R: 0.9
- net expectancy per trade: +0.31R
- account survival rate: 89%
these traders had the highest win rate AND the highest survival rate. they took small wins and small losses and never gave the market enough time to hurt them.
5 TO 30 MINUTES (intraday range):
- trade count: 538
- win rate: 54%
- average R: 1.4
- net expectancy per trade: +0.42R
- account survival rate: 81%
best expectancy of the entire dataset. these traders were trading the actual session moves - entering on displacement, exiting on the next liquidity grab. clean. mechanical. boring.
30 MINUTES TO 4 HOURS (extended intraday):
- trade count: 286
- win rate: 43%
- average R: 1.8
- net expectancy per trade: +0.17R
- account survival rate: 64%
win rate fell off a cliff. expectancy halved. the traders in this bucket were almost all converting losing trades into longer holds by "giving them room." every one of them said the same thing in the post-mortem: "i wasn't planning to hold that long. i just didn't want to close it at a loss."
OVER 4 HOURS (overnight or multi-session):
- trade count: 164
- win rate: 31%
- average R: 2.1
- net expectancy per trade: -0.38R
- account survival rate: 22%
NEGATIVE expectancy. 78% account death rate. the longest holds were the most likely to blow the account. every single one of them was originally a smaller trade that "didn't go the right way" and got upgraded to a swing in real time.
here's what the data actually says:
your hold time has nothing to do with your strategy
your hold time has everything to do with what you're emotionally willing to close
the winning traders held under 30 minutes because that's how long their actual edge plays out
the losing traders held over 4 hours because they couldn't bring themselves to take the loss while it was still small
the trade duration is the SYMPTOM. the inability to close losers is the disease.
"letting winners run" is a phrase invented by people who can't close their losers and want a noble reason to justify it.
real winners don't run. they expire. on schedule. inside the session window. for 1-3R. and the trader closes them because the setup is done, not because the price hit some imaginary moonshot.
if your average hold time is over an hour and you're not profitable:
you're not trading.
you're hostage-negotiating with your own bad entries.
(free discord in bio. DM "SYSTEM" for 1-on-1 coaching. i only take 1-2 traders at a time to work fully private with - this is a high ticket offer)
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