Diligent Degens

Wealth creation used to follow certain rules. Save, invest, buy a home, retire. That world’s gone. Inflation erodes savings, currency debasement devalues effort, and buying a home feels like a luxury. The gap between the wealthy and everyone else widens. But thats not because people stopped working or don't take it serious anymore It is because the system stopped rewarding diligence. To bridge that gap, this generation HAS to take smart risks earlier. Not to buy a Lambo, but to buy freedom. To afford the ability to take less risk later. From institutional research desks to crypto-native models, we’ve dissected markets from every angle. Now we’re opening that process to everyone. We want to empower every investor regardless of capital size or knowledge to navigate this journey with discipline, data, and conviction. Because in a world of monetary decay, knowledge abitrage offers the most asymmetric opportunities. But only if approached with diligence, not recklessness. We’re here to educate, inform, and track both short- and long-term trends, helping you make degen trades via informed decision making. And we’re doing it all in public. Every thesis, every edge & also every mistake. We’re giving away institutional-grade research for free. Because we’re not here to sell narratives, we’re here to prove them. Don’t be afraid to connect, learn, and build with us. Be part of the movement & let’s unf*ck our financial future together. Cheers, yours @DiligentDegens

@NoLimitGains Risk on.

🚨 Oil crashes to $83 Guess what happens next?

The US Dollar continues to lose market share: The US Dollar now represents ~46% of global FX and gold reserves, the lowest in at least 26 years. This percentage has declined -15 points since 2017. Excluding gold, the US Dollar makes up 57% of global reserve currencies, the lowest since 1994, according to IMF data. This comes as central banks have aggressively accumulated gold and diversified into other currencies. The last time the US Dollar fell below 50% of global reserves was in 1990-1991, a period marked by elevated inflation, a recession, and a crisis of confidence in the US economy. What is happening here?

hint: it's bitcoin 😁

🚨 do you understand what just happened to the US economy.. Q4 GDP growth was initially reported at 2.8%.. revised to 0.7%.. now revised again to 0.5%.. in the same quarter the previous one came in at 4.4%.. that's an economy falling off a cliff while the government kept revising the numbers down quietly hoping nobody would notice.. and this was BEFORE the Iran war.. before oil hit $99.. before the tariffs fully kicked in.. Q4 2025 is the last quarter where they can blame nobody but themselves.. the last time the US had near-zero growth, a Middle East war, and oil prices spiking at the same time was 1973.. the OPEC embargo.. Nixon.. unemployment doubled.. inflation hit 12%.. and it didn't recover for years.. they called that stagflation.. they're about to call this one a "soft landing".. the economy was already flatlining before a single bomb dropped on Iran.. now oil is at $99 and they're spending billions on a war they can't afford in an economy that was already dying.. and yesterday the stock market rallied 2.5% on a ceasefire that's already falling apart

@jtevelow Thank you for this masterpiece Jesse!

@AcuityDAR Thank you for sharing my article. 👏👊

Iran just put a price tag on the Strait of Hormuz and told the world to pay in Bitcoin. Let that sink in for a second.. Twenty percent of global oil supply moves through that chokepoint. Every tanker, every barrel, every day. And the one country sitting on the bottleneck has been cut off from SWIFT, had central bank reserves frozen, and watched its dollar-denominated assets get seized in real time. Of course they want BTC. Every other option has a kill switch controlled by Washington. Saudi Arabia, UAE, even China are watching this play out and running the math quietly. If Iran pulls off even a symbolic settlement in BTC, every sanctioned or sanction-adjacent economy on earth has a new playbook. Russia already experimented with non-dollar energy settlement. Brazil and India have been pushing bilateral local currency deals. None of those stuck because they all still needed trust between counterparties. Global M2 is expanding again further the dollar weaponization trend has been accelerating for three straight years. Real yields are compressing back toward 1.5%, which historically opens the window for non-yielding assets to potentially reprice higher. All of that was already constructive for BTC on a 6-8 week lag basis. Now add sovereign demand that has nothing to do with speculation and everything to do with survival. The countries buying BTC next won’t announce it but just stop showing up at dollar auctions.

@QuintenFrancois We got governments paying tolls in btc before GTA6

Bitcoin holders after being told “no one uses it” watching governments pay Iran in BTC

@CredoraNetwork is finding product market fit. Risk ratings is seemingly finding some effect on the underlying AUM growth on Morpho lending vaults... Logical evolution will follow the path of traditional counterparts such as Moody's, etc. HOWEVER, the governance layer of the DeFi vault's value chain is still under developed. For any builders carving a niche here, look into: - Alternative sources of yields (for instance tier 1/2/3 properties in emerging markets like India) - proprietary risk management/DD frameworks - unique liquditiy engineering frameworks to solve redemption/subscription bottlenecks. RWA is taking the lead as leverage demand continues to suppress base on-chain yields... On-chain capital is also very sticky so building in such vectors will give some advantage towards capturing some of this rotation out of lending vaults

@CredoraNetwork is finding product market fit. Risk ratings is seemingly finding some effect on the underlying AUM growth on Morpho lending vaults... Logical evolution will follow the path of traditional counterparts such as Moody's, etc. HOWEVER, the governance layer of the DeFi vault's value chain is still under developed. For any builders carving a niche here, look into: - Alternative sources of yields (for instance tier 1/2/3 properties in emerging markets like India) - proprietary risk management/DD frameworks - unique liquditiy engineering frameworks to solve redemption/subscription bottlenecks.

Is Bitcoin “cheap” at $66k? According to many models, yes. But that's not the main question. Bitcoin’s current discount will continue to persist, that is until the market has finished distributing risk. This bear market, much like the previous ones, does not end when prices stop falling. They end when the marginal seller disappears. When forced exits are exhausted, leverage resets and ownership transitions from low conviction to high conviction holders. Our first anchor comes from using the ‘True Market Mean’ as a way to represent the aggregate cost basis of economically active supply. By focusing on coins that have transacted on secondary markets and ignoring those that are dormant, we essentially find a representation of the active investor price. And conceptually this tells us the average acquisition price of the marginal participant. When prices are trading above this level, the average active investor is in profit. Trading below this metric indicates that the average active investor is underwater. Now this is just one of the many indicators allocators must account for when forecasting the length of this bear market (and by proxy their allocations)... We are working on a composite indicator that integrates Macro + DeFi signals. Will release it soon.

Yes, TAO is a reward token just like other DePin projects . But the full picture is totally different: - No VC and insider vesting - Finite supply and deflationary tokenomics - $TAO is needed for transaction fees and to access AI project tokens on the network. Let it unfold...

BREAKING: US job numbers revised down by over a million jobs last year

The Labor market is NOT strong. In the last 3 years, over 2.1 MILLION jobs were erased from the original BLS reports. 2023: -306,000 jobs 2024: -818,000 jobs 2025: -1,029,000 ( the largest single-year drop in at least 20 years ) Since 2019, roughly 2.5 million phantom jobs have vanished. This shows the U.S. job growth was massively overestimated.

We feel you, the market looks awful! But looking at the Altcoin ($OTHERS) market versus $BTC, is this really the point in time to leave the market? Especially when taking into account that the FED is expanding its balance sheet once again.

Are we the only ones looking at this $TAO community. Very significant

Gm ladies & gents. Bitcoin did hit $59,948 with a Fear & Greed reading of 5. Let that sink in for a second. Every major Bitcoin crash bottomed with fear between 9-12. We’re at 5. This is the lowest reading ever recorded. Yet somehow, the vibe feels… calm? No mass panic. Not much „Bitcoin is dead” headlines flooding mainstream media. No suicide hotlines pinned in Reddit. Group chats are still active. Podcasts are still running. People are irritated, not broken. That’s the weirdest part. The fear index says this should feel like the end of the world. But the actual sentiment? It’s almost mature. Annoyed, maybe. Frustrated. But not capitulated. Either the index is broken, or we’ve entered a completely different market structure where fear no longer manifests the same way it used to. Maybe institutional presence changed the game. Maybe leverage got flushed earlier. Maybe people just learned to stop checking their portfolios every hour. Or maybe, and this is the bullish read, the market finally grew up. If we’re at 5 and people are still holding, still building, still showing up… that’s not weakness. That the kind of conviction that builds the foundation for what comes next. Peace out & stack accordingly.

Whether the bottom is in or not what you should be asking. the main question on everyone's mind should be: "Can i have a defensive portfolio that is earning consistent and safe yield on my cash so i can DCA into defensible projects like $TAO, $HYPE and put my $ETH and $BTC to work?" We believe this bottom is not related to fundamentals, but rather a structural impact cause by deeper adoption of Bitcoin within the financial system. According to @dgt10011 , - IBIT traded like a tech stock, not like gold - Over recent weeks, IBIT showed very tight correlation with software equities and broader risk assets. When tech sold off, Bitcoin sold off with it. - Feb 4 was a statistically extreme shock - Goldman Sachs PB flagged Feb 4 as one of the worst days ever for multi-strategy hedge funds - Z-score of 3.5 = 0.05% probability event - This is 10x rarer than a standard 3-sigma risk event - Risk managers stepped in immediately - After events like this, risk managers at multi-manager hedge funds (“pod shops”) force urgent, indiscriminate de-risking - Positions are cut regardless of conviction - This explains why Feb 5 was also a bloodbath More on this here: x.com/dgt10011/statu…