Dimitrios Kavvathas
871 posts

Dimitrios Kavvathas
@Dimitrios160174
Father of 4, derivatives protocol founder, UChicago PhD, ex Goldman Sachs Partner, ex Macro PM; finance, mechanism design, sustainability & cliometrics





They did it before the advent of asymmetric warfare emerged as a viable long term war strategy. The IRGC isn’t going to meet the US Marines for one big battle at the Persian Gate. Also neither Turks or the Romans managed to conquer Persia. And Greece is being double counted by stating both Macedonia and Greece. Not to mention that Macedonia was being led by possibly the Greatest General of all time meanwhile the US has Pete Hegseth.












"The administration is now trying to salvage a plan that seems to be, like Churchill’s in 1915, disintegrating on contact with the enemy. It may still be salvageable. The Islamic Republic may yet oblige Trump by expiring. I do not rule that out."


Wrong take. The UAE had been living with Islamic Republic tail risk forever. This tail risk was continuously getting repriced lower as the Islamic Republic’s capabilities had been getting degraded. The option got exercised and it isn’t that bad after all. Dubai with the Iranian plateau hinterland re-integrated with the global economy, one of the most entrepreneurial people on earth back in the flows, will be unstoppable.


Moved to Dubai a month ago… Then two drones exploded next to our building, I was listed #3 on the UAE public prosecutor’s list for “publishing illegal content” (the video of the Fairmont on fire that got 1.7m views) resulting in my X account being banned across the country, followed by another week of hiding in the basement due to constant barrages of missiles and drones. Then a couple days ago after Marina 23 and the airport got hit I decided we’ve pushed our luck far enough. Made our way over the border into Oman the night before last and flew out this morning. Good luck to everyone in the GCC. But if you have the means to get out – I suggest you do so. Don’t FAFO.

This war is asymmetrical. On one side you have people like: Dr. Ali Larijani (Secretary of the Supreme National Security Council of Iran) author of three essays on Immanuel Kant, his writings are studied in Western universities: • The Mathematical Method in Kant’s Philosophy • Metaphysics and the Exact Sciences in Kant’s Philosophy • Intuition and the Synthetic A Priori Judgments in Kant’s Philosophy And: Dr. Abbas Araghchi (Minister of Foreign Affairs of Iran) PhD from the University of Kent. His doctoral thesis: “The Evolution of the Concept of Political Participation in Twentieth-Century Islamic Political Thought.” And on the other side? Donald Trump. A man whose vocabulary barely exceeds 200 words. Most famous quote: “Grab ’em by the pussy.”

Nutrition Influencer: No offence but the palaeolithic diet is a fantasy. Palaeolithic people died at thirty. Thirty. Average life expectancy. Hardly an advert for meat-eating, is it. Palaeolithic Hunter: I'm sixty. Influencer: That's...you can't be. Hunter: My father lived to seventy-two. My grandfather to sixty-eight. My uncle made it to... Influencer: The data clearly shows... Hunter: The data includes every child who didn't survive birth. Every man eaten by a bear. Every woman who died in childbirth. Every person who fell off a cliff. Hunter: If you survive childhood and avoid catastrophic accidents, you age. You age well. I've watched men in this group reach their seventies with their teeth and their legs working. Influencer: So you're saying... Hunter: I'm saying "average life expectancy" when half your sample died before age five is not a comment on diet. It's a comment on infant mortality, predators, and falls. Influencer: ...Oh. Hunter: I've eaten red meat my entire life. My joints work. My vision is good. My teeth are intact. Hunter: How are your joints? Influencer: [does not answer] The influencer was thirty-four and had already had one knee operation. He drove home and had a protein shake. He did not eat red meat.

Everyone’s freaking out that the straight is blocked from sending out oil. China is completely dependent on that straight for oil and natural gas. They only have 4 weeks of reserve. If it’s not opened back up, their entire economy will collapse in short order. This is likely a secondary reason why the U.S. invaded Iran, Iran has been shipping oil and gas at a tiny fraction of its normal cost to China as the rest of the world has sanctioned it. Without ultra cheap oil and gas, the Chinese economic model dos not work.

BREAKING: Turkish President Erdogan on Iran: Iran is our neighbor. The Iranian people, with whom we have been in peace and tranquility since 1639, are our brothers, just like other peoples in the region. We have lived side-by-side in peace for centuries. Inshallah, we will live side-by-side in peace and tranquility with our Iranian brothers for many more centuries. Our priority is to ensure a ceasefire and open the door for dialogue.

