Dimitrios Kavvathas

871 posts

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Dimitrios Kavvathas

Dimitrios Kavvathas

@Dimitrios160174

Father of 4, derivatives protocol founder, UChicago PhD, ex Goldman Sachs Partner, ex Macro PM; finance, mechanism design, sustainability & cliometrics

Katılım Ocak 2024
1.1K Takip Edilen2.9K Takipçiler
Dimitrios Kavvathas
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174·
3 data points: 1. SpaceX may try to raise 75bn$; Anthropic 60bn$. 2021: 316bn raised across all U.S. IPOs 2024: 41bn 2025: 78bn ( credit The Information ) 2. Exxon Mobil forward P/E higher than NVDA’s now. 3. Since Liberation Day, gamma from S&P 500 straddles hasn’t paid back the premium
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Dimitrios Kavvathas
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174·
@willmenzies @MohanadElbalal Fair ‘ catch ‘ but issue is imposing one’s political will on Persia / Iran as Heraclius did; climbing mountains won’t be a necessary condition of a favorable settlement.
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Will
Will@willmenzies·
@Dimitrios160174 @MohanadElbalal If the discussion is about the difficulty of conquering territory within the mountain ranges it seems irrelevant to mention a city that lies outside of them?
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Mohanad
Mohanad@MohanadElbalal·
They did it before the advent of asymmetric warfare emerged as a viable long term war strategy. The IRGC isn’t going to meet the US Marines for one big battle at the Persian Gate. Also neither Turks or the Romans managed to conquer Persia. And Greece is being double counted by stating both Macedonia and Greece. Not to mention that Macedonia was being led by possibly the Greatest General of all time meanwhile the US has Pete Hegseth.
Mohanad tweet media
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Dimitrios Kavvathas
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174·
Wrong. Mongols / Asian Nomads ( conquered it twice ); Hulegu Khan / Timur. Greek Byzantines under Heraclius victoriously reached Ctesiphon ( in current Iraq, but it was the capital of the Persian Empire and Chosroes II was deposed ) 1000 years after Alexander the Great, so Greece isn’t double counted.
Mohanad@MohanadElbalal

They did it before the advent of asymmetric warfare emerged as a viable long term war strategy. The IRGC isn’t going to meet the US Marines for one big battle at the Persian Gate. Also neither Turks or the Romans managed to conquer Persia. And Greece is being double counted by stating both Macedonia and Greece. Not to mention that Macedonia was being led by possibly the Greatest General of all time meanwhile the US has Pete Hegseth.

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Dimitrios Kavvathas
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174·
AAII bearish reading highest since liberation day; GS Panic Index registered 9+/10; Citi fear and greed at extreme fear in enough markets
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Dimitrios Kavvathas
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174·
Greek Independence Day. Long live the spirit of the indomitable heroes. Learn about their bravery, their sacrifice, their honour and their human weaknesses. The lessons are there for everyone irrespective of nationality or creed. Admire their portraits and their busts, smile at their nicknames and realize we can all be heroes. Everyone can make the choice in their daily struggles. Salute them
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Dimitrios Kavvathas
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174·
Here the question is Cui bono? If UAE and Saudi take on offensive posture and contribute troops that could be advice further contemplating, if it implies continuous UAE ( + Bahrain , Qatar ) weakening and relative Saudi outperformance not so. On point 1, by Saudi’s next step one can see whether Iran has retained credible and asymmetric offensive capability ( highly likely yes ).
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Eli Afriat 🇮🇱
Eli Afriat 🇮🇱@EliAfriatISR·
🚨🇮🇷🇸🇦BREAKING: New York Times report: Saudi Crown Prince Mohammed bin Salman is pushing Trump to continue the war against Iran, arguing that the joint US-Israeli military operation provides a “historic opportunity” to reshape the Middle East. In several calls in the past week, bin Salman has conveyed the message that pressure must be put on the hardline Iranian regime to eliminate it. Bin Salman has argued that Iran poses a long-term threat to the Gulf, and there is no way to remove it except by removing the regime.
Eli Afriat 🇮🇱 tweet media
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Dimitrios Kavvathas
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174·
Thorough assessment of the fiasco. Heart out to the people who lost money and the team; goodness me though how on chain finance rediscovers the lessons of every tradfi crisis event in an accelerated timeline. Having lost and made money across assets and market conditions is a qualification ( yes, having lost money is, sadly , a qualification ) missing from the ‘ loopers with daily liquidity for illiquid assets with smart contract risk ‘ ( DeFi yields )
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Omer Goldberg
Omer Goldberg@omeragoldberg·
1/ Millions in bad debt, at the time of writing, were created across Gauntlet's Morpho vaults from the Resolv USR exploit. Almost all of it was supplied ** after ** the exploit. So why would curators supply millions in USDC to a broken market? Let’s dive in.
Omer Goldberg tweet media
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Dimitrios Kavvathas
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174·
He thinks he is profound implying click baiting threats on behalf of a regime that just ‘discovered’ 4,000km range missiles. This is how a Greek Prime Minister ( the legendary Ethnarch Venizelos ) responded during World War I to the German Ambassador suggesting to him to break Greece’s treaty obligations against Serbia: ‘ Hellas is too small a country to commit such a big act of dishonesty ‘. Greece has a mutual defensive treaty with Saudi ( Saudi F15s got stationed in Crete during Greek- Turkish tension in 2020 ) and this is that.
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Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡
Shanaka Anslem Perera ⚡@shanaka86·
BREAKING: Greece just shot down two Iranian ballistic missiles over Saudi Arabia. A NATO member that signed no declaration of war against Iran used a Patriot battery operated by Greek soldiers on Saudi soil to intercept missiles targeting the SAMREF oil refinery in Yanbu on the Red Sea coast. Greek Defense Minister Dendias confirmed the engagement. Prime Minister Mitsotakis called it strictly defensive. It is the first time Greek military personnel have fired a weapon in combat since the battery was deployed under a bilateral agreement with Riyadh in November 2021. A European democracy that borders Turkey just entered the Middle East’s largest war to protect a refinery jointly owned by Saudi Aramco and ExxonMobil. The target tells the story. SAMREF is not a military installation. It is a 400,000-barrel-per-day refinery on Saudi Arabia’s western coast, far from the Strait of Hormuz, far from the front lines of Operation Epic Fury. Iran fired ballistic missiles and at least one drone at it. The missiles were intercepted by the Greek Patriot PAC-3. The drone impacted the complex with what Saudi authorities described as minor damage. Iran is no longer limiting its retaliation to Hormuz or the Gulf coast. It is reaching across the Arabian Peninsula to the Red Sea, targeting refineries that supply Europe and Asia through the Suez Canal rather than the strait. The geography of Iranian retaliation just doubled. This happened on March 19, the same day 23 nations signed a joint statement condemning Iran’s Hormuz closure and pledging readiness to ensure safe passage. Greece is not one of the 23 signatories. Greece did not sign the statement. Greece fired the interceptor. The country that pledged nothing on paper did more in three seconds of missile engagement than 23 signatures accomplished in three pages of diplomatic language. Readiness is a word. A Patriot launch is a verb. Trump told the world on March 21 that Europe, Japan, Korea and China will have to get involved in policing the strait. Greece got involved before he asked. It got involved not through a statement or a pledge or a fund but through a missile defence battery that has been sitting in Saudi Arabia for four years waiting for a moment that arrived on March 19 at the speed of an Iranian ballistic warhead. The bilateral agreement that put Greek soldiers in Yanbu was signed for exactly this scenario. The scenario arrived and the agreement held. The implications cascade. A NATO member has now engaged Iranian weapons in combat. Greece frames it as defensive, bilateral, and unrelated to the broader war. But the missile it intercepted was fired by the same IRGC that launched two intermediate-range ballistic missiles at Diego Garcia the following day. The same IRGC that hit Ras Laffan in Qatar. That hit Mina Al-Ahmadi in Kuwait twice. That put a cluster munition through a daycare roof in Rishon Lezion this morning. Greece intercepted missiles from an organisation that is simultaneously attacking six countries. The word defensive becomes complicated when the attacker’s target list includes half the region. Twenty-three nations signed a statement. One nation fired a Patriot. The question nobody is asking yet is which model scales. If Iran continues expanding its target geography from the Gulf to the Red Sea to the Indian Ocean, the 23-nation statement will need to become a 23-nation engagement. Greece did not wait for the statement to tell it what to do. It had a battery, a mandate, and a missile inbound. It fired. The refinery is still standing. The precedent is now set. open.substack.com/pub/shanakaans…
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Paul Saladino, MD
Paul Saladino, MD@paulsaladinomd·
>Not sure where this level of vitriol is coming from, Sama, but I appreciate you sharing your thoughts, let's clarify a few points. >I'm genuinely happy if my work has helped anyone (and I've seen plenty of positive stories in the comments). That's always been the goal. >Carnivore was a powerful tool for me, it helped heal my eczema by removing potential plant triggers and taught me a ton about bioindividuality. It worked well for a while, but it wasn't sustainable long-term for my body. Adding real-food carbs (fruit, honey) dramatically improved my testosterone, thyroid, sleep, energy, and workouts. That's not opinion; it's what my labs and how I feel show. Bioindividuality is real, what works for one person (or at one life stage) won't for everyone. I hope people take that lesson: experiment thoughtfully, prioritize simple whole foods over meds when possible. >On fat/liver: I was eating high fat and moderate liver on strict carnivore, claims otherwise simply aren't accurate. >Liver remains one of the most nutrient-dense foods we know of. Humans have thrived on it for hundreds of thousands of years. Fresh is ideal, but @heartandsoilHQ makes high-quality desiccated options that have genuinely helped thousands (check the testimonials). I'm proud of that work. >Carbs from real sources like fruit/honey have solid data behind them for metabolic health in most people. No major studies show harm when consumed whole/in moderation. If you've got contrary evidence, I'd genuinely love to see it. Happy to host you on the podcast to discuss carbs, keto downsides (thyroid/sex hormones/cortisol), or anything else. >Re: scaremongering/toxins : my goal is awareness so people can make informed choices in a world full of environmental challenges. If that content doesn't resonate, no problem,skip it. >Vegetables work fine for some; I eat few but cheer for anyone thriving on them. >The @eatlineage bar uses real-food sweeteners (organic honey, coconut nectar, wild blueberries/strawberries). Far cleaner than most options out there. Coconut nectar has prebiotic benefits in studies; honey brings probiotics also and improves gut flora composition. It's designed as a convenient real-food tool when steak/eggs aren't practical. >In short: I explored strict carnivore, learned a lot, evolved based on my own results, and stayed transparent. I am thriving today because I stayed open-minded. You're welcome in Costa Rica anytime for a real conversation, ideas improve when shared in person. Keep doing the work that helps people with diet; I respect that. Workout time, talk soon?
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Sama Hoole
Sama Hoole@SamaHoole·
>Be Paul Saladino >Heal your eczema with carnivore >Write a book about how plants are poison >Tell everyone that nose-to-tail is essential so you can sell liver pills at $60 a bottle >Not eating enough fat, eating way too much liver >Things start to nosedive >Start adding honey because your testosterone has collapsed >Tell your audience carbohydrates are actually fine and you've grown >Migrate to 300g of sugar per day and call it ancestral >Tell everyone carnivore was slowly destroying you >Explain that ancestral humans ate carbs because raw meat contains trace glycogen >Confirm Liver King is completely natural, no notes >Liver King is on $11,000 a month of synthetic hormones >Pivot to scaremongering: soap, shampoo, sunscreen, toothpaste, toilet paper >Vegetables turn out to be okay actually >Launch protein bar sweetened with coconut nectar >It is ancestral >You said so >The liver pills are still available >Nothing has been refunded
Sama Hoole tweet media
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Dimitrios Kavvathas
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174·
Tempting but incorrect analogue. 1)The British in Gallipoli prevaricated for more than 2 months with naval force only, offering the Ottomans plenty of time to further fortify the Straits ( marines are on the way ) 2) the Israel equivalent at the time, Greece, didn’t participate ( national schism pre-amble; Bulgarian vulnerability ) 3) Iran still controls only one side of Hormuz; not 2 sides of straits 700m wide at the narrowest
Niall Ferguson@nfergus

"The administration is now trying to salvage a plan that seems to be, like Churchill’s in 1915, disintegrating on contact with the enemy. It may still be salvageable. The Islamic Republic may yet oblige Trump by expiring. I do not rule that out."

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Dimitrios Kavvathas
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174·
Point of note by JP Morgan; oil price benchmark stability is elusive. Brent and WTI are Atlantic basin and Cushing, Oclahoma delivery benchmarks. Dubai and Oman oil prices are trading already closer to 150$ per barrel. If conflict evolves as perceived ( I think Iran’s capabilities are getting continuously degraded though and market misprices ceasefire potential ), these prices will converge upwards
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Dimitrios Kavvathas
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174·
This needs to be updated. The UAE are thinking hard whether their preferred off ramp is a ceasefire that inevitably leads to Iran rushing towards a nuclear weapon and another round where both sides will be better prepared, or max pressure now for insisting for regime change. No medium term plans can be sustained with ‘ let’s rain drones and missiles ‘ risk unless it is preferred to apply the UAE’s considerable resources to rendering 97% interception rate towards 100% at lower cost
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174

Wrong take. The UAE had been living with Islamic Republic tail risk forever. This tail risk was continuously getting repriced lower as the Islamic Republic’s capabilities had been getting degraded. The option got exercised and it isn’t that bad after all. Dubai with the Iranian plateau hinterland re-integrated with the global economy, one of the most entrepreneurial people on earth back in the flows, will be unstoppable.

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Dimitrios Kavvathas
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174·
SPX skew lies at the 99th 5yr percentile: index puts very well owned, leverage has come down; market is more prepared for a longer conflict. Which means events will unfold that challenge this positioning
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Dimitrios Kavvathas
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174·
Trump trade hit the negative qudrifecta, ex crypto ( yields up, dollar stronger, equities down, crude up ) ; does it signal canary in the coalmine recovery properties or no one left to delever ? ( I think the 2nd; crypto since 10/10 is left for dead not that much of a macro instrument ex werkend and that slowly going away too )
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Dimitrios Kavvathas
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174·
You are a guest at someone’s house. The host graciously offered you a small room to live and work. You just need to follow the rules of the pater familias. The neighborhood bully, who has taken over the estate next door from his rightful owner 47 years ago gets regularly drunk and threatens everyone around. The police department with the assistance of the local heavies comes and tries to extract the bully from his fortified compound and he lashes out. Your host’s house gets stoned and damaged and instead of you offering assistance or just staying out of it till matters settle down, you start taking photos and posting stories. yes, maybe your host may tell you ‘ just stay out of it for now, I have work to do ‘.
ElonTrades@ElonTrades

Moved to Dubai a month ago… Then two drones exploded next to our building, I was listed #3 on the UAE public prosecutor’s list for “publishing illegal content” (the video of the Fairmont on fire that got 1.7m views) resulting in my X account being banned across the country, followed by another week of hiding in the basement due to constant barrages of missiles and drones. Then a couple days ago after Marina 23 and the airport got hit I decided we’ve pushed our luck far enough. Made our way over the border into Oman the night before last and flew out this morning. Good luck to everyone in the GCC. But if you have the means to get out – I suggest you do so. Don’t FAFO.

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Dimitrios Kavvathas
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174·
Book I, Plato’s Republic. Again the Ancient Greeks knew and considered it common wisdom: “ For presumably you are not maintaining that if Polydamas, the pancratiast, is stronger than we are, and it is to his advantage to eat beef, for his body, then this food is also advantageous for us weaker folk, and just too “
Sama Hoole@SamaHoole

Nutrition Influencer: No offence but the palaeolithic diet is a fantasy. Palaeolithic people died at thirty. Thirty. Average life expectancy. Hardly an advert for meat-eating, is it. Palaeolithic Hunter: I'm sixty. Influencer: That's...you can't be. Hunter: My father lived to seventy-two. My grandfather to sixty-eight. My uncle made it to... Influencer: The data clearly shows... Hunter: The data includes every child who didn't survive birth. Every man eaten by a bear. Every woman who died in childbirth. Every person who fell off a cliff. Hunter: If you survive childhood and avoid catastrophic accidents, you age. You age well. I've watched men in this group reach their seventies with their teeth and their legs working. Influencer: So you're saying... Hunter: I'm saying "average life expectancy" when half your sample died before age five is not a comment on diet. It's a comment on infant mortality, predators, and falls. Influencer: ...Oh. Hunter: I've eaten red meat my entire life. My joints work. My vision is good. My teeth are intact. Hunter: How are your joints? Influencer: [does not answer] The influencer was thirty-four and had already had one knee operation. He drove home and had a protein shake. He did not eat red meat.

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Dimitrios Kavvathas
Dimitrios Kavvathas@Dimitrios160174·
If we are at it, Greece hasn’t been at war with Iran since Basileus Heraclius marched onto Ctesiphon and signed please treaty with Kavadh II ( The Ottomans had few ‘skirmishes’ ( wars ) with Persia post 1639 up to 1823; still ‘side by side’ (?), there used (?) to be 2 peoples in between, Kurds and Armenians, anything about these 2 peoples ‘ side by side in the region ‘ )
Sulaiman Ahmed@ShaykhSulaiman

BREAKING: Turkish President Erdogan on Iran: Iran is our neighbor. The Iranian people, with whom we have been in peace and tranquility since 1639, are our brothers, just like other peoples in the region. We have lived side-by-side in peace for centuries. Inshallah, we will live side-by-side in peace and tranquility with our Iranian brothers for many more centuries. Our priority is to ensure a ceasefire and open the door for dialogue.

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