BMAC

MILLION DOLLAR MILESTONE! If you asked me whether I'd be here when I first started this journey 4 years ago, I would've said "of course". If you asked me 2 years ago, I would've said "no chance". Crazy how much can change in just two years when you put in the work and surround yourself with the right people. Onwards and upwards! 🚀🌕

In a sudden turn of events, US 12-month inflation expectations have surged to 5.2%, the highest level since March 2023. In just 3 weeks, markets have gone from pricing-in rate cuts to rate hikes.

@tradeandfade Crazy how shit everything but a few stocks have been. Very tough price action.

Good lord, time to size way down. The papercuts are starting to add up again similar to December as the frustration of constantly being on the wrong side the last few days starts to build 😅 About a 0.3% hit today just from trying to short the momentum basket. Other than that, trimmed another 20% $VLO on 7x ADR extension from 50MA.

Everyone has been quick to frontrun the TACO trade. Will today be any different?

100% of my partial positions have been stopped breakeven or for a loss. Better to scalp ranges and take the whole position off. If something becomes the next market leader, there will be plenty of opportunities around the corner. Scalpers market right now.

@tradeandfade @Luke_twit Snagged some IBIT last night before going to bed at 40.34. Half of what I wanted to get because of exactly what you mentioned. Was willing to risk a bit though because of the relative strength BTC had been showing vs these headlines. Hopefully we get a buyable pullback today.

@Luke_twit @DipTraders I hope my boy Bmac caught it cause I couldn’t hold it given the market’s weak close…again 🥲🥲

Couldnt really feel comfortable getting short on the gap down so instead I took a stab at $IBIT and $ETHA longs 🤡 Sizing is so tiny as I probe portfolio is not really moving any one direction. Smalls have been hot though so at least we're printing there!

@FranVezz Agree 100% Today it finally feels like full risk-off mode. Indices rejecting off the 10/20/50. Leading themes getting sold. Feels good to sit in cash now until something materially changes.

For me, the hardest part of this market is that there's been JUST enough carrot dangled to keep me nibbling here and there.

@gmetzidies I still scalp but the edge has diminished. Swing trading is another tool in the toolbelt. A tool for compounding.

@DipTraders Hey bratha! You changed trading style? U are not scalping long anymore?

1R = 1% of Account Very pleased with how the P/L curve is looking with what felt like some of the worst execution I've had in my career. - Lots of stocks up 2R and didn't pay myself, just to have it come all the way back for a loss. - Botched the SLV/GLD top - Botched the GLD reversal yesterday (see pic) So many small things that make a massive difference in overall P/L. This market has been a great lesson for how to manage tricky times. Hopefully will come out the otherside that much better.

Max frustration today. Was very well positioned in tons of leaders. 30 minutes undid all of it and some. Stopped B/E or worse on $ASML, $VRT, $CAT, $MU, $SOLS, $MKSI. Only positions remaining are $PL and $VIAV.

@TaPlot @TradeStation I use their desktop application. I played around with Titan the other day. Looks sexy but seemed less feature rich.

Is anyone using @TradeStation's new platform Titan X? Just came across it on their website. Looks fairly new. Thanks!

Call me gay. I love my lobster 🦞

@tradeandfade Sitting pretty in $PL, $VRT, $HUT, and $ASML $MU, $WULF, $RUN, and $B looking good for tomorrow. Debating adding to $ASML tomorrow as well. Main risk I see is we go balls deep in Iran overnight and the market has a huge gap one way or the other.

@DipTraders Nice dude, whatcha buy?

Lots of RS showing up. Purchases from yesterday working so far. 🤞

@DipTraders I can’t believe it. All of my other accounts funded but the one I actively trade out is going on a month? now. 🥲

Funds in new e-trade account wont be available until the 17th now....omg 😅Missing some really big short opps recently.

Clawdbot starting to feel bigger than the Nov ’22 ChatGPT moment.

@TheShortBear @grok explain how the rebalancing works on an ETF such as $AGQ and why the 10% drop matters when rebalancing

$SLV $AGQ $SILVER The morning opened with a clear regime shift. Trump nominated Kevin Warsh for Fed Chair. Warsh is widely viewed as a hard-money hawk. At the same time, a U.S. government shutdown was averted at the last minute. Gold and silver had effectively been propping each other up over the past week. Silver looked vulnerable, but gold’s parabolic move prevented a breakdown, resulting instead in a double-top structure. This setup has historical precedent, most notably in 2006 and 2011. Quietly behind the scenes topping macro news added up: Greenland resolution, Tariff step back, FED chair hawk(ish)... As the macro narrative flipped, the “chaos premium” and “debasement trade” evaporated almost instantly. This came on top of rising margin requirements and billions of dollars in call options being offered throughout the week. With today being Friday, those call positions became trapped. Market makers were then able to delta-hedge back toward neutral by selling underlying shares. That’s when the dominoes began to accelerate. As silver broke below key whole-number levels, where the largest call strikes were concentrated, selling pressure increased exponentially. Billions of dollars in call options rapidly went to zero. The selloff intensified into the 1:30 PM window, driven in part by the $AGQ rebalancing mechanism. As a 2x leveraged ETF, AGQ must rebalance daily to maintain its leverage ratio. A 10% drop in silver leaves the fund over-leveraged, forcing it to sell futures into weakness. The “Kill Zone” (1:00–1:25 PM ET) is where the mechanics turned brutal: 1:00 PM: Order cut-off 1:25 PM: NAV calculation HFTs and authorized participants knew AGQ would be forced to unload significant volume. They front-ran the 1:25 PM window, stripping remaining liquidity. Silver didn’t merely decline, it gapped through multiple support levels. Selling pressure peaked precisely at the 1:25 PM NAV print. Once the mechanical rebalancing was complete, price finally found a floor.

@tradeandfade Haha it’s just the unrealized portion which is holding $CRWV from $80 and some other small ones. Up a few percent for the month but was expecting double digits until today 🤣 Better luck next month I guess 🥲

@DipTraders Super tough market man to hold anything. The fact that your portfolio is even up +1% today is incredible! Easier times always ahead 🤝

Typically I trim into strength but I didn’t do that on Monday/Tuesday this week. I had a lot of new buys such as $PL, $FIGR, $IREN, $RKT which were up 1-2R and with the market turning up I pressed the gas instead of being defensive. Today I watched as the portfolio went from +5% unrealized to +1% with half the positions getting stopped for a loss. Tough day to stomach and hindsight is always 20/20.