Drew retweetledi
Drew
3.5K posts
Drew retweetledi
$BTC update
Grind higher as expected, funding still negative and spot premium is still healthy
We definitely could use some more spot support up here. Perps are doing the heavy lifting.
But interestingly enough, funding is negative - which implies aggressive perp buyers are buying into passive sellers, still capping the price below spot (no signs of froth yet)
Dom@traderview2
$BTC Funding still negative, basis still spot skewed & orderbooks thin Bulls are butting up against a clear liquidity void Acceptance over 79.5k and I think mid 80s comes fast
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Drew retweetledi
MSB: Real Break vs Fakeout - Cheat Sheet
This post is sponsored by WOO X Pro — trade with zero fees on spot: wooxpro.com/en-US/invite/P…
In an uptrend, you need a higher high to confirm a higher low.
In a downtrend, you need a lower low to confirm a lower high.
That's the rule I count by.
Most traders see a break and chase. Most breaks aren't even structurally valid.
Here's how I read it.
𝟭. 𝗖𝗼𝘂𝗻𝘁 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘀𝘁𝗿𝘂𝗰𝘁𝘂𝗿𝗲 𝗰𝗼𝗿𝗿𝗲𝗰𝘁𝗹𝘆 — 𝗲𝘃𝗲𝗿𝘆𝘁𝗵𝗶𝗻𝗴 𝗲𝗹𝘀𝗲 𝗶𝘀 𝗻𝗼𝗶𝘀𝗲
The way I count structure: only the major HHs and HLs count in an uptrend.
Only the major LLs and LHs in a downtrend.
Everything between is internal structure — small wiggles that don't change the trend.
The MSB only happens when the trend fails to make its next valid move.
In an uptrend, that's an HL breaking before a new HH prints.
In a downtrend, an LH breaking before a new LL.
Internal wiggles are not MSBs.
The break of the LAST valid swing point is.
𝟮. 𝗧𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗦𝗕 𝗺𝗮𝘁𝘁𝗲𝗿𝘀 𝗯𝗲𝗰𝗮𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝗼𝗳 𝘄𝗵𝗲𝗿𝗲 𝗶𝘁 𝗽𝗼𝗶𝗻𝘁𝘀
The MSB itself is just the trigger.
What matters is where it leads.
A real MSB delivers price into the next major level — a key support, a key resistance, an equal highs/lows zone (liquidity), or a range extreme.
If the MSB is in the middle of nowhere with no level in sight, it's noise.
If you can't name where the MSB is heading, you don't have a setup.
You have a guess.
The trade lives at the level — not at the MSB.
𝟯. 𝗪𝗵𝗲𝗻 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗠𝗦𝗕 𝗹𝗮𝗻𝗱𝘀 𝗮𝘁 𝗮 𝗙𝗶𝗯, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗿𝗲𝗰𝗹𝗮𝗶𝗺 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲
When the MSB lands inside the 0.618–0.75 Fibonacci zone (the golden pocket), pay attention.
That's where SFP plays out.
Price tags the level.
Prints what looks like an MSB the wrong way.
Then reclaims and reverses hard back with the original trend.
The MSB is the trap.
The reclaim is the trade.
Wait for the reclaim and the LTF structure shifting back with the original direction.
That's the entry — not the MSB itself.
The Fib tells you WHERE.
The reclaim tells you WHEN.
𝟰. 𝗔𝗳𝘁𝗲𝗿 𝗮 𝗰𝗹𝗲𝗮𝗻 𝗯𝗿𝗲𝗮𝗸, 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝗟𝗧𝗙 𝗠𝗦𝗕 𝗮𝘁 𝗿𝗲𝘁𝗲𝘀𝘁 𝗶𝘀 𝘁𝗵𝗲 𝘁𝗿𝗮𝗱𝗲
When price makes a clean break of a key level, don't chase it.
The trade is the pullback.
That pullback usually forms an LTF downtrend (in a bullish breakout) or an LTF uptrend (in a bearish breakout).
It pulls price back to retest the broken level.
What you're waiting for is the LTF MSB at that retest — the moment the pullback's structure breaks.
When the last LH of the pullback gets taken out (in a bullish setup), the pullback is done and the original direction resumes.
That's the entry.
The level break tells you the trend shifted.
The LTF MSB at the retest tells you it's safe to take the trade.
Don't chase the break. Wait for the LTF MSB on the pullback.
𝗛𝗼𝘄 𝘁𝗼 𝘂𝘀𝗲 𝘁𝗵𝗶𝘀
Count structure correctly first.
The internal wiggles don't matter — only the last valid swing.
When the MSB happens, ask where it's pointing.
If it's into a level that matters, you're early to a real setup. If it's nowhere, ignore it.
After a clean break of a level, wait for the pullback.
The LTF MSB at the retest is your entry — not the break itself.
The reclaim is the trade.
Most breaks are noise.
The real ones reward patience — either at the retest, or in the reclaim.
WOO X Pro — zero fees on spot: wooxpro.com/en-US/invite/P…
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Drew retweetledi
bitcoin:native
I have been shorting the range until it lasted.
Once it broke, I had no reason to short it; market dynamics are clear: compression is followed by expansion.
Ranges are followed by trends, and trading the trend has been my priority over the past weeks.
My execution since breaking outside of the range has been unprecedentedly clean.
I am honestly proud of myself.
Popeye@SailorManCrypto
$BTC On LTF kind of a perfect bounce from 0.75 and demand, structure held so far. Big trouble zone here at the bearish retest of the 1H trend, need to flip it. At least it has reclaimed local range low. On 12H the trend held as support so far, as the 50 level on RSI. Now we need to invalidate the divergence. On daily, the multi trend held, now the question remains what will happen at 80K if we have the strength to move there! My TP1 is at around that level.
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Drew retweetledi
I ended up getting busy and am doing this on the go, so apologies for the mobile charts.
These are my top gas & oil picks with attractive long term chart setups, that fit my energy thesis (voracious energy consumption from AI + Fourth Turning disruptions) that I like as multi-years holdings.
For the sake of time I'll list my 3 or 4 current top picks.
My rule is no ETF's that are simply trading futures contracts. Real companies or company etf's only.
$FCG - S-tier, has larger natgas weighting which fits my AI thesis but still has plenty of oil exposure. Has a top-tier chart and bullish setups in the pairs charts as well (e.g. FCG vs XLE). Downside here is a recession as this would get hit particularly hard in that case.
$XOP - S-tier, high beta exposure if oil disruption continues, has a fantastic chart. Downside here is this will get hit hard if Hormuz actually opens, but even in that case I think it still does well in the long run.
$XOM - S-tier, absolutely beautiful chart setup with a strong bullish tilted inverse head & shoulders that's already broken out. Biggest downside here is it's a single name (concentrated/company risk) and in a strong energy bull it won't run as hard as the higher beta names, but that's sort of to be expected.
$XLE - A-tier, a great looking chart although not as nice as the ones mentioned above which is likely due to this being a broader index, not as highly oil focused. Could start running hard now that its clear multi-year resistance and is consolidating above.
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Drew retweetledi
3 for 3 on my last three bets for last week.
Looking to keep the streak going with Man City for a last minute scream on today’s match over Everton.
Been a blast betting futbol and having the ability to watch all of them midday. Gives me something to do while markets been slow.
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Drew retweetledi
Drew retweetledi
$BTC to low 80's + November lows, done :)
And with that we've entered the risk zone where structural weakness indicates this move might be ending. Eyes peeled.
Dentoshi@Dentoshi
$BTC Bit of a choppy flip but if we stay above grey here, I think we have a fair shot at low 80's
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Drew retweetledi
bitcoin:native
Before vs After 🎯
Finally managed to secure some profit on this, at around 2R.
I was 1.5R exposed on this (3 entries with 0.5 each).
I think it deserves a few considerations since it has not been an easy trade to hold.
The first struggle was holding the trade when it got filled and the market seemed about to dump. In that situation, I was truly tempted to close it to do some damage control. What saved me was going back to my plan and reading once again very carefully all my plans and the logic behind the trade. I told myself that my past self, the one with no money on the table, was by far more objective than the present me, the emotional one.
The second struggle came from holding the trade and not taking any profit for a few days with the price stalling just below 79K. I have been tempted so many times to secure some, but once again, the plan was simple and the target was that liquidity cluster up there.
I think the lesson is simple: in trading, it is not enough to plan a trade properly; it is much more difficult to manage it properly, especially as days pass and you get too emotionally involved.
The best protection you have is to be super detailed in your logic and reasoning. That is where you must go every time you have doubt and are about to sabotage your own plan.
From my side, I can't be more proud of the reading on bitcoin:native lately. Shorted the range heavily as long as it lasted, went long only after the breakout, and nailed with perfect execution two longs since the breakout where it truly mattered.
Popeye@SailorManCrypto
$BTC On LTF kind of a perfect bounce from 0.75 and demand, structure held so far. Big trouble zone here at the bearish retest of the 1H trend, need to flip it. At least it has reclaimed local range low. On 12H the trend held as support so far, as the 50 level on RSI. Now we need to invalidate the divergence. On daily, the multi trend held, now the question remains what will happen at 80K if we have the strength to move there! My TP1 is at around that level.
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Drew retweetledi
Just realized I have been trading publicly and sharing my weekly results in full honesty and transparency for almost two years. Wins and losses, everything done under the sun. Week after week!
The plan is simple: set a new standard when it comes to transparency and honesty.
The job is not done!
Popeye@SailorManCrypto
Another trading week is over for me. I have not traded much but got some pretty good results. Total Trades - 5 Win - 4 BE - 1 Loss - 0 All shared publicly and in advance. Transparency is key! 👇
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Drew retweetledi
Drew retweetledi
IMO, Hottest trends for the rest of 2026:
🧬AI augmented biotech development
💡Photonics
☎️Legacy telcos pivoting to AI/Autonomous Infra
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Drew retweetledi
Back into the previous range and above the anchored vwap now. Good place for the weekend to chop a bit and then go again on the open.
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@SailorManCrypto @traderview2 Seems like a lot of delta and OI build up today to not have cleared the recent highs yet, no?
Last day with this much buy delta and OI was March 3 which did make a local high but then sold off hard after.
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@traderview2 Structure still intact and so many equals highs just below 80K. Also we are coming from a 10 weeks long compression. Feels like more expansion higher coming. My portfolio would appreciate it! 🤞
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$BTC
Funding still negative, basis still spot skewed & orderbooks thin
Bulls are butting up against a clear liquidity void
Acceptance over 79.5k and I think mid 80s comes fast
Dom@traderview2
$BTC Bulls have slowly accepted out of the two month boring range Despite the ~20% move in April, funding is still negative & spot premium is still positive... No signs of froth My eyes stay at ~79K. Bull acceptance over that will enter a low volume liquidity void where price would likely move fast towards 84K Order books are also slim north of 79k, so the only roll over concern would be exhaustion from buyers
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Drew retweetledi
We are seeing a textbook short fuel scenario on Binance $BTC perps
Over the last day, ~$900M in Oi has been added, while the long/short ratio has collapsed to 37% (bottom 1% of the last 3 months)
Bears are doubling down into this rally
BUT If bulls clear $80k, we have the fuel for the squeeze of all squeezes
Dom@traderview2
$BTC Funding still negative, basis still spot skewed & orderbooks thin Bulls are butting up against a clear liquidity void Acceptance over 79.5k and I think mid 80s comes fast
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Drew retweetledi
interesting times in markets, you can feel tensions rising
- great local bid, into resistance, another day where we get an OI explosion
- cases to be made for bullish HTF momo loss and building out a rounded bottom
- case to be made for MTF interim top soon too as we trade into the weekly trend
- hard to be turbo bear on alts that are down 90% and have flatlined for months now
im still sticking to intraday trading and moving perp profits into spot btc to keep it simple
2026 goals are simple as well: improve intraday sizing comfort zone, accumulate more spot btc and look to develop high conviction alt thesis eventually
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Drew retweetledi
Some hopium
This current spot does resemble 2019 far more than 2022
Equities ATHs, choppy DXY, credit spreads in and around cyclical tights, and Q2 of Trump's midterm year
BTC is one strong weekly break of ~85k away from a shift in trend, likely confirming the end of its bear market [which, ofc, is easier said than done]
But if/when the tide does turn, there isn't a better asset class to be riding a wave of momentum in
threadguy@notthreadguy
on one hand it’s depressing that google can add 500b in a day while crypto genuinely has zero bid and it’s all i’ve been trading for five years on the other hand it’s electric thinking about how small these crypto tokens are relative to the amount of money floating through the market. which way man which way
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Drew retweetledi
$BTC
On LTF kind of a perfect bounce from 0.75 and demand, structure held so far.
Big trouble zone here at the bearish retest of the 1H trend, need to flip it.
At least it has reclaimed local range low.
On 12H the trend held as support so far, as the 50 level on RSI. Now we need to invalidate the divergence.
On daily, the multi trend held, now the question remains what will happen at 80K if we have the strength to move there!
My TP1 is at around that level.
Popeye@SailorManCrypto
$BTC (Multi Time Frame Analysis) We’re at a crossroads: my system can still support a bullish continuation, but it may also be pointing to the start of a bigger correction. Bullish case: Range breakout still intact, with price well above VaH. - 1H structure still bullish - Retesting both the 12H trend and the daily trend from above - This is where buyers should step in and resume the most recent uptrend for a move into the 80s Bearish case: 1H trend, EMA and MA 200, have broken down and is starting to act as resistance. - Local range breaking down, showing signs of distribution - 12H bearish RSI divergence, potentially losing the 50 level - Multiple clear rejections at the highs below 80K I’m long with a position just above BE, fibs 0.75 and demand are holding, but with these flashing signals it’s becoming pretty uncomfortable to hold. The plan was made objectively and still stands, so I’ll hold it but if, during the NY session, I see further weakness, I’ll close it to limit the damage.
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Drew retweetledi
Crypto's current state is a bit shit
1. Market cap is not an indicator of quality - the top 50 is made up of ghost coins or bloated governance slop that has underperformed and is uninvestable
2. The long tail speculative stuff went from high risk high reward to 'some dude in Miami is going to zero this if you hold it for more than 5.9 seconds'
3. Everything is extremely correlated and you can't meaningfully make bets based on sectors as it all converges into a tightly correlated mush, especially to the downside
4. Broad brush alt season is an artefact of the past that's very hard to replicate given (2) and given that there are simply too many coins and the excess of speculation doesn't really happen on centralised exchanges anymore - it's been siphoned off to bundled shit in max PvP settings
5. Crypto reputationally is no longer the sexy frontier of speculation. Institutional bid is in AI, retail speculative bid is in 0DTE equities, single name stocks etc.
6. Convexity has flattened. Even a lot of the historically safe blue chip stuff (BTC, ETH etc.) has underperformed and the historical anchor of 'buy deep drawdowns because all-time highs are guaranteed and explosive' has disappointed. All the shit we used to put up with because of the accessibly massive trend and momentum effects is now harder to justify because those same effects are getting neutered or siphoned off into other arenas.
The obvious rebuttal is 'cycles' but even this past cycle is a useful counterpoint: it was extremely concentrated versus broad brush wealth effect, plus something very obviously broke after 10/10.
So what does this all mean?
1. In previous cycles, nailing timing was enough and selection was the cherry on top (rising tide lifted all boats). I don't think that holds - both timing and selection matter now and in the future.
2. Participation alone can be an edge if the asset class is early enough and/or mispriced enough. I don't think that holds either, and we might actually have to learn how to trade (fuck).
3. Hopefully I'm an idiot doomposting the bottom
GM
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Drew retweetledi
$BTC (Multi Time Frame Analysis)
We’re at a crossroads: my system can still support a bullish continuation, but it may also be pointing to the start of a bigger correction.
Bullish case: Range breakout still intact, with price well above VaH.
- 1H structure still bullish
- Retesting both the 12H trend and the daily trend from above
- This is where buyers should step in and resume the most recent uptrend for a move into the 80s
Bearish case: 1H trend, EMA and MA 200, have broken down and is starting to act as resistance.
- Local range breaking down, showing signs of distribution
- 12H bearish RSI divergence, potentially losing the 50 level
- Multiple clear rejections at the highs below 80K
I’m long with a position just above BE, fibs 0.75 and demand are holding, but with these flashing signals it’s becoming pretty uncomfortable to hold. The plan was made objectively and still stands, so I’ll hold it but if, during the NY session, I see further weakness, I’ll close it to limit the damage.
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